Richmond Times Dispatch:

New polling pegs a potential U.S. Senate contest between former Govs. George Allen and Timothy M. Kaine as a dead heat.

The first survey by Public Policy Polling since Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., announced that he won’t seek re-election shows Allen, a Republican, and Kaine, a Democrat, tied at 47 percent with 6 percent undecided.

Kaine, who has said he will make a decision on whether to run for the seat early this month, registers a higher favorability rating than Allen, with 46 percent to Allen’s 39 percent.

46-39 doesn’t quite seem like a dead heat to me, but you know those polls.  Yea/Nay depending on who you like.  Let’s take a look at some other variables.  Kaine might not want to run. He was sitting back minding his own business being DNC chair, when Webb announced he was retiring after one term.  What other Democrats could step up to the plate?  There is always former Rep. Rich Boucher.  How about former Rep. Tom Perriello?  Both of these men were knocked out of office at midterms.

…[T]he poll showed Allen beating two other Democrats mentioned as a possibility. Allen bests former Rep. Rick Boucher, 47-42, and former Rep. Tom Perriello, 48-41, in the survey. Boucher and Perriello were casualties of a Republican surge in the November midterms.

How about Republican contenders who might oust Allen in a primary or convention?  Both Jaime Radthke and Delegate Bob Marshall’s names have been mentioned.

There’s a similar case on the Republican side. Tea-party activist Jamie Radtke is challenging Allen for the party’s nomination, but the poll shows that 82 percent of voters have an unsure opinion of her with a 4 percent favorable rating and 14 percent unfavorable.

Del. Robert G. Marshall, R-Prince William, who is also considering a run, is only slightly better known, with 72 percent unsure.

The problem seems to be that all the candidates seem to be sort of lukewarm and who could blame them.  Why would anyone be panting at the gate to run for any federal office.  Everyone hates Congress.  Who wants to spend a million dollars to run for an office where everyone will hate them?  No wonder it is so difficult to find people to run for office.

The one name I keep thinking will pop up is Terry McAuliffe.  So far he hasn’t tossed his hat in the ring.  Is he waiting for another run for governor or will he decide to go for the senate?  Are there any dark horses out there in the Republican Party just waiting  to tip his or her hand?  And don’t forget, Corey Stewart is still out there.  Just because he is running for Prince William County Chairman of the Board of Supervisors doesn’t keep him from running, especially if he loses to one of the 4 contenders.  He could lose in Prince William and still pull and end run.  We can’t really say Stewart is a dark horse.  He has been chafing at the bit to run for Senate.  Keep an eye on him.  He could trot out the tired old immigration issue to challenge the former governor of the Old Dominion at any point.

11 Thoughts to “The ‘what ifs’ of 2012”

  1. hello

    I think this is basically a run to see who will rise to the top of the field for the R’s. The D’s seem to be fine with running Tim Kaine, who’s most recent achievement was being the DNC chairman while the biggest shift in 70 years away from D’s occurred. I’m totally fine with them running Tim, he has a great record (almost historic) of turning people off to Democrats.

    Run Tim Run! 🙂

  2. Perhaps Allen could leave one of his famous deer heads in his mailbox to scare him off.

  3. Rick Bentley

    Funny.

    Allen’s a guy that in another time and place I would never vote for. But given my disgust with the illegal immigration issue, I’ll almost certainly vote for him.

  4. hello

    Deer heads in the mailbox… like Rahm-dead-fish Emanuel? That would be hilarious Moon! 🙂

    Spot on Rick, me too.

  5. @Rick, Does he even have a stand on immigration? I have never heard it. I bet after Macaca he avoids immigration like the plague. Maybe Allen will deer head Emanuel’s mail box too. Who cares.

  6. Rick Bentley

    Well in 2006 he (Allen) had a strong anti-illegal immigration position.

  7. @Rick, I don’t remember back that far. I wonder if he will concentrate on it now?

    Did you see Corey’s quote in the post?

    From the WAPO:

    Although he has made several trips across Virginia in recent months to push for statewide immigration reform, he said he would not focus on it as much at the local level.

    “Times have changed, and there are other needs in the county now,” he said. “What the county needs more than anything else right now is economic growth, transportation dollars for roads and funding for schools.”

    It seems to me all that Rule of Law business he was touting was a matter of convenience. (read: to get elected)

  8. Rick Bentley

    Well, my neighborhood’s better off, and I feel he had a bit to do with that.

  9. Rick Bentley

    Also, I think that he (Stewart) does actually care, very much, about the issue. I was within 10-20 feet of him once when he was speaking about it and that did not look like manufactured passion. My thought at the time was “Wow, this guy’s actually angrier than me!”

    1. I think Corey perhaps has that unique ability to be all things to all people. If he cared, he would see it through to election time.

      What will happen to Rule of Law money from donations? Does that just go into his war chest? I doubt that are rules that require him to spent that money on immigration issues.

      Rick, Corey is really lucky to have you. You have stood behind him through thick and thin. I mean that in all sincerity.

  10. Juturna

    Can’t support taking the load off the state/feds to build our own roads.

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