Thursday will be the day for this big guy.  Will he see his shadow?  We haven’t had that much winter yet so if he sees his shadow, do we have 6 more weeks of this spring weather? 

I can’t remember a winter this mild.  What is causing it?  Does anyone have daffodils blooming?  Mine have lots of buds.  If we get a hard freeze, will there just not be daffodils this spring?  How does that work?

51 Thoughts to “Open Thread…………………………………..Wednesday, February 1”

  1. Starryflights

    Doing the math on Obama’s deficits

    By Ezra Klein, Wednesday, February 1, 2:09 AM

    When Obama took office, the national debt was about $10.5 trillion. Today, it’s about $15.2 trillion. Simple subtraction gets you the answer preferred by most of Obama’s opponents: $4.7 trillion.

    But ask yourself: Which of Obama’s policies added $4.7 trillion to the debt? The stimulus? That was just a bit more than $800 billion. TARP? That passed under George W. Bush, and most of it has been repaid.

    In two instances, this made Obama’s policies look more costly. First, both Democrats and Republicans tend to think the scheduled expiration of the Bush tax cuts is a quirky budget technicality, and their full extension should be assumed. In that case, voting for their extension looks costless, and they cannot be blamed for the resulting increase in deficits. I consider that a dodge, and so I added Obama’s decision to extend the Bush tax cuts for two years — at a total cost of $620 billion — to his total. If Obama follows through on his promise to extend all the cuts for income under $250,000 in 2013, it will add trillions more to the deficit.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ezra-klein-doing-the-math-on-obamas-deficits/2012/01/31/gIQAnRs7fQ_story.html

    Interesting analysis. Obama’s decision to extend the Bush tax cuts, not spending, added trillions of dollars to our national debt.

  2. Ray Beverage

    See his shadow? That whole nonsense up in PA is just tourism anymore because given the number of spotlights they use, how the heck does the critter know if it has a real shadow or man-made one? LOL!

  3. It sounds to me like Punxsutawney was the early bird on this one.

  4. Morris Davis

    @Starryflights

    Starry — Don’t forget that the President proposes a budget, but only Congress can appropriate funds. And all spending bills must originate in the House. Last time I looked Boehner was allegedly in charge of the branch the Constitution assigned responsibility for taxing and spending.

  5. Morris Davis

    Humorous (yet factually accurate) letter from Dana Milbank to Newt Gingrich. Here’s a sample:

    “We (the media covering Newt) felt discomfort for you when Fox News, playing on a big screen at your Victory Party, projected Romney’s win at 8 p.m. sharp. We felt pain when we heard that your concession speech might have to be delayed because there weren’t enough supporters to fill the seats behind you. We felt anguish when we learned that some of the “supporters” on the floor were in fact onlookers from a hardware convention.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-medias-codependent-relationship-with-newt-gingrich/2012/01/31/gIQArTADgQ_story.html?wprss=rss_linkset&tid=sm_twitter_washingtonpost

  6. George S. Harris

    @Morris Davis
    Somehow people seem to forget that Moe. The president proposes, the congress disposes. And Republicans and Teapublicans are driving the bus. Think about this–the DJIA was at around 8,000 when Obama took office; at the close yesterday it stood at 12,600+. Roughly 4,600 points higher than when Bubba was in the White House. And that’s in a crappy economy! I wonder where it would be in a good economy.

  7. George S. Harris

    How come no comments about Corey announcing he is going to run for Lt. Governor? Now can he be forced out of office so that we can give someone who at least gives a rat’s behind about Prince William County? The people of PWC got exactly what they deserve–they reelected him and now he has flipped everybody off. Nice going Corey. We would like to wish you all the best in your endeavor but somehow we just can’t bring ourselves to do it.

  8. Pat Herve

    here is hoping that the P-Nats stay in PWC – http://www2.insidenova.com/sports/2012/jan/29/1/new-p-nats-stadium-may-be-along-i-66-ar-1649106/ – after a recent face lift on the stadium, it seems like the team wants to move anyway.

  9. Pat Herve

    Moe – we Americans do not have any knowledge about history before 2008 – we only believe what the boob tube feeds us. The same members of Congress that want to shut it down over spending, are the very ones who voted in the spending in the first place. It is as if the local bar keeper ran alcoholics anonymous.

  10. Steve Thomas

    “I can’t remember a winter this mild. What is causing it? Does anyone have daffodils blooming? My have lots of buds. If we get a hard freeze, will there just not be daffodils this spring? How does that work?”

    We’ve had them. It is caused by the “La Nina” weather pattern, over the pacific. This is pushing the Jetstream further North, allowing warmer Southern air to move north. I’ve seen some things blooming early. Yes, a hard freeze, meaning ice, will disrupt many bloom cycles, including cherry blossoms. If your bulbs are looking ready to bloom, my best advise is to get some floating row cover, and watch the weather. If it looks like a hard freeze is coming, cover up the plants. I do this with my veggies, and they do just fine.

  11. @George S. Harris

    Are we surprised that Corey is running? I thought about doing a thread and then decided I wouldn’t give him the attention.

    Why wasn’t there a real challenge to this seat?

    Corey is using the people of PWC as a stepping stone but they have let him so…..

    I would be very surprised if Corey gets the win he wants.

  12. @Steve Thomas

    Will you tell me what floating row cover is please.

    Mine bulbs are not in rows. They are random. Very random.

  13. I think sometimes El Nino gets blamed for things it shouldn’t. I really don’t recall ever a winter this mild. Not complaining, mind you.

  14. @Pat,

    Isn’t the guy making the decisions the guy Corey told he didn’t know what he was talking about?

    Oooops wrong person. Still, Corey shot off his mouth.

    Here is the reminder:

    https://www.moonhowlings.net/index.php/2011/08/03/take-me-out-to-the-ball-game/#more-14869

    You might want to send him the thank you note if PWC loses the Nationals.

  15. Steve Thomas

    Moon-howler :@Steve Thomas
    Will you tell me what floating row cover is please.
    Mine bulbs are not in rows. They are random. Very random.

    This is floating row cover: http://www.gardeners.com/Row-Covers/5111,default,pg.html

    You can just lay it right on the plants. It does not need to be supported. I weight down the corners with bricks or stones.

    1. Thanks Steve. I will get some and just cut it.

  16. Steve Thomas

    Moon-howler :I think sometimes El Nino gets blamed for things it shouldn’t. I really don’t recall ever a winter this mild. Not complaining, mind you.

    It’s “La Nina”, which is a different pattern altogether.

  17. Morris Davis

    Interesting confluence of events on Wednesday shed some light on Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney. First, there was his comment “I’m not concerned about the very poor.” He argues the comment has to be considered in context, but even viewed in the light most favorable to him it demonstrates why so many have such a hard time connecting with him and see him as ultra-rich, out-of-touch, and aloof. Of course Romney cites his 25 years at Bain Capital where he says they were a job creation engine and gave him the real-world experience to rescue the nation’s economy. American Airlines announced yesterday that it’s terminating 16,000 employees, punting the employees’ retirement obligations over to the government (dumping 130,000 employees/retirees on the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation), and abolishing retiree health insurance. AA is paying $525,000 a month to Bain for expert advice and assistance on shaving their workforce and dumping their long-term obligations on the taxpayers. Of course most of those who really believed Romney and his buddies at Bain were “job creators” opening up new opportunities to expand the middle class also believed Saddam had WMD, the mission in Iraq was accomplished in May 2003 when Bush stood under the big banner on the USS Abraham Lincoln and said so, and Obama was a Kenyan born Muslim. I’m not sure who’s more out-of-touch with reality: Republican candidates or Republicans in general.

  18. Starryflights

    Indeed. Romney has also said he likes firing people. He does more to make himself look out of touch with mid class voters every day, and giving Barack Obama the appearance of the only presidential candidate left who’s looking out for the middle class.

    Romney also criticized Obama’s recent decision to withdraw from Afghanistan next year. I think most Americans support that decision, as well as withdrawing from Iraq.

    Romney’s going to have a hard time defending his positions come fall.

  19. @Moe

    Mr. Howler was just commenting on that over his morning cuppa Joe. He said George W. Bush acted like he never had a dime to his name. What a contrast.

    I will never forget back in the 90’s something was said about George Bush Sr. going through the grocery store and remarking about grocery scanners. Al Gore made fun of him saying it was like an ape discovering fire. One of my fondest memories of Mr. Gore, back when he was a little more real and had an attractive wife named Tipper.

  20. @Steve, I know that daffs can survive snow easily as can pansies. The blooms can also survive a light freeze. I hope any serious freeze holds off until I get my first blooms at least.

  21. Need to Know

    The National Weather Service is calling for above-average temperatures to continue through April:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

    Doesn’t look like we’re going to get much snow this year. Before anyone jumps on the global warming bandwagon about this, take a look at the Northwest and Alaska. They’re experiencing much below-average temperatures and precipitation. Alaska is having its coldest winter on record. A couple of years ago we took the worst of it with snowmegeddon, etc. while they got the warmer temperatures. This year is our turn.

    The jet stream, la nina, el nino, etc. explain these patterns.

    By the way, the link I provided to the NWS is the source of weather information the media use. If you just want the information without the blow-dried models and inane non-humor of the broadcast “meteorologists” just go there. That site will be increasingly useful as NBC is turning the Weather Channel into another reality TV channel that doesn’t do weather anymore.

  22. punchak

    Eastern Europe is in a deepfreeze. Several people have frozen to death in Ukraine, for example.
    Scandinavia has had the warmest December and January in decades.

    It’s no use discussing weather. It does what it does. Predictions be damned 🙁

  23. Ray Beverage

    Supervisor Covington’s Invitation Letter to Brentsville District residents:

    http://www2.insidenova.com/news/2012/jan/30/letter-editor-invitation-wally-covington-ar-1650980/

  24. I wouldn’t be so dismissive of global warming. I am not saying it is causing this warm trend. After all, global warming is about over all climate change, not weather.

    But to deny that man isn’t leaving a footprint on the earth because of fossil fuel use is just sticking your head in the sand. It should not be a political issue.

    Actually, every time a Republican says something that denies climate change, I just think about how much Al Gore must be chuckling. He started a movement.

  25. How come that groundhog Punxatomy Phil doesn’t take a big chunk out of his handlers?

    That has to be the ugliest groundhog I have ever seen in my life.

    -x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-xx-x-x-x-x-x–xx-x-x-x-x-x-

    Every time I hear the expression ‘class warfare’ I get tickled. It is soooo transparent.

  26. Need to Know

    @Moon-howler

    Moon, I agree. Gore is chuckling all the way to the bank as he cashes in on his global warming campaign:

    http://www.generationim.com/

  27. Mom

    Highlights from Tuesday’s BOCS Agenda
    1. Moving the Gainesville District Office to Heritage Hunt
    2. $244,000 to cover unexpected Sesquicentennial overages
    3. Issuing $85 million in bonds to achieve cost savings, would love to see the details on that one but the file won’t open.
    4. Disbanding the Park Authority is curiously a Supervisor’s Time item
    5. Candland appointing someone from Fredericksburg to the Disablities Board, since Fredericksburg is 45 miles from the Gainesville District line I guess nobody in PWC is qualified.
    6. Yet another “Rigby” appointment by Supervisor Candland

    1. @MoM thanks for this much needed service. You are our hero.

      1. Is this a gated community and how much will it cost the tax payers?
      2. What? Where will this money come from? Who was on that committee that handled the Sesquicentennial?
      3. Huh?
      4. Strange
      5. Totally unacceptable to have someone out of the county. We need to demand that the supervisors reject anyone not from PWC.
      6. boys will be boys. Husband and wife team?

  28. Mom

    1. Outside the gated community
    2. Money on top of what was previously allocated, I think the City told them to pound sand if I am correct, or at least a portion of the City Council did.
    3. Ditto
    4. Ditto
    5. Ditto
    6. Nice enough guy but three appointments for one guy?

    1. 3 appointments for one person is totally unacceptable for one person.

      Running a budget a quarter of a million dollars over is unacceptable also.

      Finally, although not surprising, announcing that the chair is running for another office after 3 months of winning the election is unacceptable. Does he think it is just cool to use us or that he is so cool we won’t care?

  29. Lafayette

    Major house fire on the 9700 block of King George. No reports of injuries. It’s been burning for over an hour now.

    1. Holy cow. I fell asleep and missed all the action. Is it behind your mother’s house?

  30. Starryflights

    Very interesting piece here

    Where Are the Romney Republicans?
    By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
    Published: February 1, 2012

    The most embarrassing moments to watch this political season have
    occurred as Mitt Romney has pretended to be an angry, fire-breathing
    true conservative. The evidence suggests that in his soul he’s a
    moderate pragmatist, but he has flip-flopped like a frantic fish in
    hopes of hiding his reasonableness.

    Newt Gingrich, Romney’s main rival for the Republican presidential
    nomination, is denouncing Romney with one of the ugliest slurs in the
    Republican lexicon: a Massachusetts moderate. Other moderate
    Republicans are savaged as RINOs — Republicans in name only — as if
    they emerged from an ugly mutant strain.

    Yet, in fact, as a new history book underscores, it is the Gingriches
    and Santorums who are the mutants. For most of its history, the
    Republican Party was dominated by those closer to Romney than to
    social conservatives like Rick Santorum, and it is only in the last
    generation that the party has lurched to the hard right.

    The new book, “Rule and Ruin,” by Geoffrey Kabaservice, a former
    assistant history professor at Yale, notes that, to compete in the
    primaries, Romney has had to flee from his own political record and
    that of his father, George Romney, a former governor of Michigan who
    is a symbol of mainstream moderation.

    “Much of the current conservative movement is characterized by this
    sort of historical amnesia and symbolic parricide, which seeks to
    undo key aspects of the Republican legacy such as Reagan’s
    elimination of corporate tax loopholes, Nixon’s environmental and
    labor safety programs, and a variety of G.O.P. achievements in civil
    rights, civil liberties, and good government reforms,” Kabaservice
    writes. “In the long view of history, it is really today’s
    conservatives who are ‘Republicans in name only.’ ”

    After all, the original Massachusetts moderates were legendary
    figures in Republican history, like Elihu Root and Henry Cabot Lodge.
    Theodore Roosevelt embraced progressivism as “the highest and wisest
    form of conservatism.” Few did more to promote racial integration,
    civil rights and individual freedoms than a Republican, Earl Warren,
    in his years as chief justice.

    Dwight Eisenhower cautioned against excess military spending as “a
    theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” Richard Nixon proposed
    health care reform. Ronald Reagan endorsed the same tax rate for
    capital gains as for earned income. Each of these titans of
    Republican Party history would today risk mockery for these views.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/opinion/kristof-where-are-the-
    romney-republicans.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

    Where are the moderate Republicans? They have much to be proud of.

    1. Let’s discuss capital gains. I simply do not think of those as ‘earned’ income. For years, if you sold your house, you paid capital gains on the profit. Various laws have been enacted to keep middle class people from getting socked with huge taxes after the sale of the home. Should what you make selling your house really count as earned income? That could put you in the poor house real fast.

      I certainly don’t know all the ins and outs of capital gains but I don’t think the concept is all dead wrong…not by a long shot.

  31. Lafayette

    @Moon-howler
    Yes, on the opposite side of the street. It’s one of the worst I’ve seen in WestGate. The house is total loss. Go to my FB wall. More details there. Sadly, the owners were out of the country. They are still on the scene. The air still smells of smoke. I don’t know how you missed this one. People mid-county were hearing the equipment come our way. Great job to all those on the scene. I can’t think of a station on the western end that was not there.

  32. I was asleep. I can sleep through an atomic blast. I did smell something when I woke up. I guess it was that house. What I hear is strange. I hear things before they come up flatbranch hill. Its odd.

  33. Starryflights

    @Moon-howler
    A capital gain is simply a gain realized on the sale of any capital asset. Regarding the sale of a personal residence, yes it’a a capital gain, but the tax on it can be deferred. I don’t think that’s the issue here.

    The rates on capital gains on other types of assets, such as stocks, bonds and investment real estate (other than one’s personal residence) are what most conservative argue should be taxed at a lower rate. Interestingly, Ronnie Reagan was not one of those who believed that, according to the piece above.

    Anway, the point of the Kristof article is that Republicans like Ike and Reagan have had a good history of compromising on issues like civil rights, health care, and tax reform. There’s nothing wrong with compromise for the common good. It’s an admirable trait.

    1. The tax can be deferred if you put your money into a new house or if you are a certain age. What if you don’t? Would you want to be taxed like it was normal income? I sure wouldn’t.

      I think lots of people want the capital gains laws to stay the way they are at least for gains under a million. Too many people have investments.

      I guess my point is, it isn’t just republicans.

  34. Need to Know

    I like Mitt Romney. He’s probably closest to Ronald Reagan of all of the primary candidates.

    In some ways I like Ron Paul also. In particular, he scores high on character, integrity, and being honest about what he believes. Unlike many other Republicans, I also like his views on foreign policy. It’s time to stop being the world’s policeman, getting involved in “nation-building” fiascos (they never work), and blowing billions of taxpayer dollars on a military designed to fight the now-ended Cold War with the defunct Soviet Union. Ron Paul is right on the money with those ideas. Remember again Ike’s reference to the military-industrial complex. However, Ron Paul goes off the deep end on the Federal Reserve, the gold standard and generally anticipating an economic Armageddon.

    I long for the days of commonsense conservatives like Ronald Reagan. Compromise was not a bad word and most people had the best interests of the nation at heart rather than a right- or left-leaning agenda. People weren’t enemies. President Reagan and Tip O’Neill fought out their political differences during the day and could get together as friends for a beer or something in the evening.

    Moreover, I consider myself a strong conservationist in the Teddy Roosevelt mold. This position is not inconsistent with not buying into Al Gore’s global warming scams.

    As a mainstream Reagan Republican, I’ll gladly vote for Mitt Romney. I won’t be holding my nose when I do so.

    1. Germany and Japan might disagree with you, NTK. I don’t like Romney particularly but he and Huntsmen were the only candidates that even bore a resemblance to someone presidential.

      Romeny’s problem is that he isn’t wearing the conservative base make over too well. I like the moderate Romney far better.

  35. marinm

    http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/stolen-babies-mother-loses-kids/story?id=15491886

    Interesting article.

    Not sure I like the idea that the children are being adopted out but I guess it’s a better solution than keeping them in foster care until they hit the age of majority. Not a simple issue.

  36. Need to Know

    @Moon-howler

    Moon, I consider Germany and Japan post-WWII different from what’s been going on since Clinton in nation-building. Germany and Japan (Marshall Plan, etc.) were part of containing the Soviet Union. Prior to the fall of the Soviet Union I was among the most hawkish of Republicans and supported doing whatever was needed to win the Cold War, or at least contain Soviet expansionism. That period is now history.

    Starting with Clinton in Somalia and through Bush Jr.’s administration we adopted a policy of meddling in other people’s business where we had no interests, spent vast fortunes, and accomplished little or nothing.

    Even Reagan admitted such actions were a mistake. Reagan said that his biggest mistake in foreign policy was sending the military into Lebanon. When they were murdered in that awful terrorist attack he realized we had no business being there and got out. Bush Sr. sent only advisors and support people to Somalia, and his only goal was getting humanitarian aid to where it was needed. Clinton expanded our role into nation-building. Are Somalia and Haiti (Clinton’s other big nation-building excercise) any better off today? Most would argue they are not.

    Even though I will vote for Romney in the primary, I wish more Republicans and Democrats would move toward a foreign policy of minding our own business as Ron Paul advocates.

    1. I would say right now nation building needs to happen at home. We can’t afford to nation build. I don’t always think it is a bad idea.

      Clinton inherited Somalia. I would like Bush and Clinton to share the responsibility of Somalia.

      Too bad some nation building didn’t happen in the south.

  37. Where is Big Dog? How come he isn’t here doing the dance of the running bulls? Sweet bulls!!!

  38. Kelly3406

    @Starryflights

    Mitt Romney reminds me of Bob Dole. He offers little in the way of vision, fails to excite the electorate, changes his views on important issues, and in general behaves like a professional politician rather than leader. He’s also a nice guy like Dole and is likely to achieve the same (lack of) success in the national election as Dole.

  39. punchak

    Wonder whether Romney will be advertising Viagra, should he lose? 🙂

    1. or Depends, like Dole did. I guess he has enough money he doesn’t have to lower himself to draw a paycheck.

  40. Big Dog

    “Dow at Highest Since May 2008”

    “Jobs Data Show Sustained Growth”

    “Republicans Grind Teeth To Nubs – Create Dental Crisis”

    Wall Street Journal headlines (the first two are today, predict the third for tomorrow).

    1. @Big Dog

      I was looking for you to do the bull dance with!!! Friday was sweet.

  41. Big Dog

    The Iranian military recently reenacted the late Alytollah Khomeini’s
    return from exile to Iran in 1977 using a large cardboard cut-out of
    him which was, with great ceremony, escorted off a plane and driven
    into Tehran.

    If this wasn’t odd enough, Fareed Zakaria noted that both in 1977
    and today the plane was a Boeing and the vehicle was a GMC.

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