In a word, NO. However, if Obama wins Virginia, he is re-elected, according to James Carville, speaking to a crowd at Randolph Macon College. However, it is a crucial win for the Republicans. If they cannot take Virginia, they cannot win the White House.
According tot he Richmond Times Dispatch:
Virginia is not a must-win state for Democrats the way it is for Republicans in 2012 — but if President Barack Obama carries the commonwealth again, he will win re-election to the White House, political strategist James Carville said.
“Right now Virginia is to Democrats what Wisconsin is to Republicans,” Carville said before his lecture Wednesday night at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland.
“Republicans could lose Wisconsin and still win the presidency. We can lose Virginia and still win,” explained Carville. “But if we win Virginia, we win the presidency — it’s a must-win swing state for Republicans.
“If Obama wins Virginia, call the dogs in and pee on the fire because it’s over.”
Carville, known as the “Ragin’ Cajun” for his Tabasco-tongued political insights, came to the school as part of the Paul and Lois Watkins Lecture Series to speak on politics. Previous lecturers have included civil rights activist Julian Bond and journalists Bob Woodward and David Gergen.
Right now, Democrats go into Virginia as a “slight favorite,” said Carville, who helped elect President Bill Clinton in 1992, teaches at Tulane University and is a frequent contributor in CNN’s political lineup.
Obama won Virginia by 6 percentage points in 2008 — the first victory by a Democratic president in the commonwealth since 1964. High turnout and a surge of young and first-time voters were credited with the victory.
Interesting. I wish he had said something about the Senate race. Will this be Tim Kaine’s win? Does he have the fire in the belly that is needed to win this election?
Will the GOP be able to capture Virginia? Will it take putting Bob McDonnell on the ticket? Has Gov. Ultra-Sound become too toxic for that consideration?
I can see Carville up there on stage doing the math right now. Of course, pug in the numbers all you want. There’s an old adage about there being many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. Virginia should be hopping this fall. I wonder if we will get all the attention we did in 2008? That cost the county big bucks. We paid for all that attention.
I doubt that our Gov. Will be On the ticket. Not because of the ultrasound thing, but because there are so many more interesting choices. Choices aimed at appealing to more than just Virginians. Funny that the VP list is potentially more interesting than the top of the ticket.
pokie, are you suggesting that the second clown show is about to begin?
I think your opinion of McDonnell is fairly short sighted. He was certainly headed in the right direction several months ago.
He could have easily been “the chosen.” Too bad those in his own party selfishly put him on the hot seat over their radical agenda.
I wouldn’t even want to guess when the first clown show is over and the second one begins. Now I’m just having fun watching Santorum and Gingrich wander around like zombies. McDonnell just isn’t sexy in a political sense. I think they could get a lot more bang for the buck with a handful of other candidates. And if you consider Biden’s qualifications, I have a betta fish that could outfox Biden. Usually I just watch where the left is attacking to see who is hot. Example, the left has its marching orders to attack Gov. Haley of SC, and lo and behold, she’s on the “hot item” list. You lefties would know better than I who is likely to be the nominee.
Awwww, let’s not bring up that old hottie thing at Nikki Haley. I don’t like her politics and she made a stupid remark about her own gender but the ‘subtle rumors’ about her when she was running were another example of really trashy politics. I didn’t believe it.
The winner of the presidential election will be the candidate who best communicates a commitment to job creation, a growing economy and reducing deficit spending. Santorum has not been focusing on those issues and Newt is off talking about moon bases or who knows what. Ron Paul’s economic message focuses on shutting down the Federal Reserve and buying gold. Romney, certain to be the nominee absent some unexpected shock, has been off message during the primaries.
Polls that do not discriminate between the general population and likely voters show the President slightly ahead. Polls of likely voters (i.e., Rasmussen who has a good tract record of accuracy) shows Romney and sometimes even Santorum ahead.
Once the nomination contest is finished and Romney can refocus on economics I think he will solidify a lead. Obama must run on his record, which is wasting two years pushing Obamacare, which most people oppose, instead of job creation.
Governor McDonnell is on the cutting room floor as a VP choice because of the recent distractions away from economic issues. It might not have been his fault, but a VP candidate who is not clearly seen as dedicated completely to the economy and creating jobs will not help the ticket.
Keep telling yourself that, NTK. You can either read the warning signs coming from the swing states or you can just get broadsided by some real bad news in November 2012.
You need the swing states to get the White House. Women under 50 are favoring the President 2-1 in the swing states. Rasmussen leans a little right in framing the questions.
Puffing up the chest feathers isn’t going to make this one go away. The only thing that will help is to stop doing the war on women. Leave the social issues alone, GOP.
The war on women is a fairy-tale.
Obamacare is based on Romneycare so the GOP has to be careful with that issue if Romney is their candidate.
A bunch of male GOP politicians, their pollsters, their spinmeisters, and their sugar daddies can’t force women to vote for their piggy social agenda. As Moon-howler has frequently pointed out – social issues drive economic issues. Every woman of child-bearing age (and those of us who are older and obviously have passed that stage) knows the economics of raising a child. So harping on an economic agenda without considering the impact of a social one is fool’s play.
I agree with Carville. Virginia isn’t a necessary win for Obama – though he may indeed take it – but it is for the Repubs.
@Moon-howler
I’m still not ready to say that Romney wins – too long until the election and too many things could happen. However, I think that if Romney can put the nomination process behind him quickly and focus on economics (job creation and reducing the deficit), and name a running mate who complements the ticket and is also seen as having job creation as his/her top priority, the Republicans might very well pull this one off.
Employment is still issue number one in the U.S. The economy is much better off now than it was when the President took office, and I’ll credit Obama for doing some things that helped. As MH readers know, I even disagree with many of my Republican friends and supported TARP and some of the other measures that Presidents Bush and Obama both pursued. They were distasteful and ran against my core philosophy as an economic conservative, but given the situation we faced at the time were needed to avoid another Great Depression. I think Republicans also need to acknowledge that the Chrysler bailout worked, even though I still strongly oppose the way Obama screwed over the bondholders.
Sometimes in a crisis you must put aside philosophy and ideology to avoid a catastrophe. I can hear the corporate types on the Titanic’s maiden voyage stating their view that icebergs aren’t a problem so full steam ahead.
Nonetheless, unemployment is still running over 8%. The jobs number this morning was quite disappointing. Most likely, the economy we see today is the economy we will have next November. That prospect leaves a huge ground to focus on Obama’s economic mismanagement and lack of interest in job creation until recently.
Censored – Romneycare can be seen as an asset in the campaign, once the primary in-fighting is done. The public overwhelmingly supports healthcare reform, and many parts of Obamacare. What the majority of people oppose is the broad sweep of Obamacare, its job-killing mandates, and its vast expansion of the government, the government’s role in healthcare, and long-term expansion of the deficit.
If I were Romney, as soon as the nomination is official I would pivot and play Romneycare as a plus. Romney is the only Republican who has a track record of healthcare reform. He won’t seek to eliminate everything in Obamacare, but will vastly reshape it. The winning message is that he supports healthcare reform, did it in his state, and will do the same nationally. The difference is that he understands economics and job creation (unlike the President) and will pursue healthcare reform in a way that addresses the main problems, but does not expand the government, the deficit and kill jobs as is the case with Obamacare.
Jobs, reducing the deficit and healthcare reform that makes sense is a winning message that will also help narrow Romney’s gender gap problems.
@NTK, the problem is finding Republicans who like Romney. Running on NOT-Obama is weak at best.
All things considered, the Prez hasn’t done a bad job at all, from an Independent and Democratic point of view.
The real problem is, the Republicans have not looked at improving the economy. Some have tried to prove their “tea-partiness: late last July, thus almost crashing the stock market. When that contingency of R finished and got pushed back, then the social worker bees came out of the closet and pissed off many of the American women by passing over 90 anti abortion measures. Then contraception and its access became an issue. Finally the National Chairman compared women to caterpillars. Jeez. Do you folks have a death wish?
You have trotted out the clown parade all winter. You have a candidate who only barely beat out some turkey who thinks states can outlaw birth control if they want to. The GOP chair is comparing over half of the voting population to caterpillars and you think you are going to win?
Ms. Snowe is right about retro talk that took place in the 50’s. The GOP is operating 60 years behind the times.
I know today is considered a day of miracles. Good Friday and Passover both involve miracles. But this is getting ridiculous.
You mean Olympia Snowe??? HAHAHAHAHA
Actually, just considering the central issue of the thread. I gut feeling is that if Obama wins VA, he wins the election, if he loses VA, he loses the election. Not that VA is the determiner, but I think it’s one of those swing states that will wind up in the winner’s column. And as of April 2012, I wouldn’t bet $5 on who is going to win….truly no idea. It’s still way early.
The election is light years away and you are right, too early to tell. What I do know though is the GOP is going to have to knock off pissing the women off.
The social values group inflicted some real harm. They need to stop with the reproductive rights assault. The old guard should have reined them in.
I thought McDonnell tried but not hard enough. He caved to his base.
The Regressives will be the downfall of the GOP. We’re simply no longer living in the era of the Cleavers or the Andersons. Father may not know best and often he isn’t around. The country is more diverse and no one seems to want to have a conversation about whether jobs will be available for everyone who wants to work in our global economy. The GOP’s answer to our problems is merely “if Obama proposes it, it’s wrong” – ignoring the fact that he’s proposed ideas originating with them. I guess they’re devoid of good ideas then. Why should anyone support them?
– rant brought to you by one irate caterpillar 😉
Do I see a new moniker in the making?
One Irate Caterpillar
How sweet it is!
Wait. Are we getting spotted Virginia? We’ll take it!!
Spotted Virginia? Is that a new species of fish?