Yesterday gave us Republcian wins in Virginia and New Jersey. The Virginia wins, for the most part, if one believes the polls, were expected. New Jersey seemed to be more of a surprise. The New York win seemed a bit more of a shocker, since so much attention had been paid to the 23rd Congressional district.
So lets hear those post mortems. Why do YOU think things happened as they did? It’s that or why NIcholas Cage is going broke.
The NJ one is more of a surprise – it was very close and Obama campaigned very heavily there for the incumbent. I have lots of relatives there so I heard a lot about this. Not really sure what tilted it in the Republican’s favor – in fact many of my relatives were voting for the incumbent (Democrat) since the Republican seemed to want to do things to affect Medicare costs (raise them).
The margin in the NJ race was surprising but Corzine is very unpopular. The White House probably should have spent less time in NJ and chalked the loss up to an unpopular governor. By putting so much effort into NJ, the White House helped make it a referendum on Obama (to some degree)
Virginia was certainly expected to be a Republican sweep, but the magnitude of it should cause some people to think. In particular, McDonnell carried Fairfax County. This should make Gerry Connolly, should be very, very concerned about 2010. He has carried a shocking amount of water for the administration as a freshman Congressman in a mixed district. He’s either going to have to tack to the center or figure out what SES job he wants come January 2011.
I gave up trying to follow NY-23, but I suspect you’ll see a rematch of Owens and Hoffman in a two way race next year.
Overall, it wasn’t a good night for Democrats. It wasn’t a rout, but of the three races, Virginia’s was the most significant. If the Democrats don’t take away any lessons other than ‘Deeds was a bad candidate’ they are going to have some problems in 2010. (Assuming the Republicans can figure out why independents broke for McDonnell 2-1 and why the ‘thesis’ attack didn’t work and reproduce that success.)
I still don’t think the Republicans are going to retake the House or Senate next year, but they are going to chip off enough vulnerable Democrats (like Connolly) to force the House leadership to deal with them. Worse for the Administration, is that some of the vulnerable Democrats, particularly the Blue Dogs, may try to create some daylight between them and the Obama administration. That could mess up their legislative plans for 2010. (Especially if they punt the health care bill until 2010!) In short, I don’t think it’s 1994 all over again, but it could be 1986 or maybe even 1990. (For the more youthful, those were mid-term elections were the minority party had significant gains but not as large as 1994 or 2006.)
It stings, but not as much as the November of 04… I was at VCU and all of us we’re gathered around the TV screen in disbelief that W. won…except for this one dumb young republican guy who was cheering the victory.
Closest I ever got to decking someone in the face with all the power and hate I could muster. I’m still suprised no one else jumped him, but I think everyone was in so much shock that Bush could ever win a second term.
Karma won in the end, the jerk dropped out of college and I went on the graduate.
There were a LOT of cars with Bush/Cheney 04 stickers with smashed windows and grafitti the next morning.
Somehow I don’t expect that to be the case this morning, McDonnel only has 2 years to make or break the Commonwealth and does not get a second chance.
I figure his legacy will amount to massive cuts in education, and massive tax breaks for the wealthiest North Virginians, but the poor and middle class will continue to pay what they pay now, if not a slight bit more and see much less value for their tax dollar.
Under Deed’s I expect the only switch would be Greater taxation of the Wealthy, great infusion of wealth into the education system (which was fine for me cause I work in it). Less educated kids means a less educated workforce…
With no major manufacturing in VA and all the tech jobs outsourced because the population can’t fill them the State’s economy becomes unsustainable.
Wonder if the mega corporations would like to infuse some money into our Education system so they can have a skilled workforce? or perhaps lay some bread on building strong local roads so their workers can get to their Virginia offices in a timely maner?
naw…it’s cheaper to outsource, even with tax breaks!
the wheel spins on -sigh
Formerly, I think Deeds was a good candidate and would have made a good governor. I think he ran a lousy campaign (or someone did). I think he would have been good for Virginia. Of the 3 Democratic candidates, he was the one with the least ties to DNC. He was more independent. That is why I liked him. People were surprised when he won the primary.
I think now that we had lots of cross over. McDonnell had run against him and won. Fewer unknowns. That was a factor I didn’t consider last time I gave my spiel on the Democrats of Va in the governor’s race.
Retrospectively, McAuliffe would have been the better candidate. He would have just had to make Virginians like him. He could have rolled out Bill Clinton quite effectively. Clinton is still adored by minorities. The missing minorities and was a key factor–a huge factor.
Coulda woulda shoulda
After the thrill of victory, comes the realization that the problems you poked
at in the campaign are, well, now your problems. As President Obama could
advise Job Bob, you don’t start with a clean slate. You may have taken over
the pilot’s seat, but the plane is still flying around towering mountains in
bad weather and low on fuel. Richmond will soon have to cut another two
billion dollars out the commonwealth budget and it will, by default, be out
of core areas. The campaign may soon look like the easy part for Job Bob
and pals.
No political post mortem. Just grateful for being able to cast a vote and humble, as a woman, to vote, when generations of American women before the 1920s weren’t allowed to. Fascinated by the process behind the scenes, where every measure possible is taken to protect every vote. Proud that City of Manassas used computer laptops for the first time, instead of the bulky paper lists, and that they were prepared for the H1N1 virus by training alternate election officials and offering coffee sticks to touch the screens, hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes. I hope everyone stays healthy after voting yesterday!
Formerly, you bring up an interesting point about the thesis. I don’t think it hurt him much at all. Those who were outraged by it wouldn’t have considered voting for him anyway. For those who liked him, the thesis was probably living,in-writing proof that they should vote for him.
It shouldn’t have been relied on as heavily as it was. And let’s face it, people were mainly concerned over the economy and their own pockets. I know *I* was. What could either candidate really say about it? Reality check here. The whole ‘I won’t raise your taxes’ theme and improving education and transportation just isn’t going to fly.
I haven’t done my daily fox news bash yet. Some moron on Fox News last night was telling everyone that Virginia has delapidated roads that were in ill repair and that was the problem. DUH! Talk about missing the big picture.
Poor Richard, all excellent points. Well put!
I am disappointed that the Democratic Party didn’t give us a better candidate. I’m sure Deeds is a “nice guy”; however, he lacked the skills to run an effective campaign (an early rest of one’s ability to run a State Government since both are businesses), communicate with voters, or properly differentiate himself from his opponent. McDonnell, on the other hand, ran a superb campaign and connected with Virginia. He also had the best hair.
I’m an independent voter. I voted for Deeds because I fear the real “McDonnell” (the one he represented himself to be in the roadmap for Virginia he published twenty years ago) will now come out. I hope I’m wrong.
I hope the Virginia Republican party realizes that McDonnell’s ability to represent all Virginians will determine how independent voters evaluate their candidates in future elections. I hope the Virginia Democratic party does a better job of selecting a candidate next time. I also support any initiative for Northern Virginia to “sucede from the Commonwealth” and become the fifty-first state. (IMHO) our unique interests are just not represented by either party in Virginia.
Took time off from election coverage to watch the new sci-fi TV show “V”
which, of course, brought me right back to politics – a smiling group of aliens
(illegal no doubt, but that is another post) assures earthlings that have come
in peace to help us, etc. – you don’t have to be a sci-fi fan to know where that goes.
Smooth, articulate, great hair, great smile Job Bob could easily play the
part of a “visitor” ( casting would have have quickly rejected Deeds).
The question to be answered in the next few months – who is the real McDonnell
under the skin? (hopefully not a reptile – that, too. would require another post)
A conservative, disciplined common sense business oriented man – I hope –
or a far right nut? Stay tuned.
I personally will not be voting for incumbents no matter the party. This is the only way we will be able to get these people trying to force feed us bigger gov’t to listen. I am not Republican or Democrat, I am Independent and intend to vote for the person that will do the job and address the issues I see need addressing. Healthcare is an issue that needs addressing, but NOT to the tune of over 1 TRILLION dollars. DC has to tighten the belt and get to managing the country or they will be out on their collective a$$es. This election should be a wake up call for those in DC. People are not buying what you are selling.
Thank-you, Mr. Deeds, for working so very hard and for serving as the Democratic nominee for Governor.
The eagerness to crucify Mr. Deeds shown here and by other, self-anointed, Blue Virginia blogs is repugnant.
Creigh Deeds is a fine Virginian who is blessed with a beautiful family. He has worked hard, all of his life, placing the welfare of his fellow Virginians ahead of his own interests. He lost this election, but nearly any Democrat would have, given the current economic and social uncertainty, all across America.
I have seen this same phenomena with both parties when a major loss happens. Certain members turn their guns inward and start blasting away. Of course there should be constructive analysis and lessons learned, but to turn against your standard bearer with such venom is just hateful and uncharacteristic of Virginians. One blog even provided a short list of people’s names who the writer blames for the election loss!!
We already have discouraged many highly successful leaders from running for public office by having a vetting process that all but examines the potential candidate’s entrails, and now we see this inexplicably ugly behavior of turning so brutally against the fellow, who just yesterday was the champion of your cause.
With uncivilized behavior like this, how do you expect to have anyone but megalomaniacs seek public office in the future?
@/\/\3|)iç 64
I’m a big fan of term limits. I believe that the longer anyone is in power, the more likely they are to succumb to corruption (Murtha being my “poster boy”). One term for Senators, perhaps two for Congressman, and then “out the door.” A one term Governor is one thing Virginia got right.
The problem is, no incumbent is inclined to change things; ergo, your idea of voting for the other guy all the time isn’t such a bad idea (although I would rather see a two party contest every time).
-A little off topic, but in an article in this month’s Smithsonian magazine on Alaska
the author writes, “It was as if everyone sought out the edges here, in a
society that offers no center and nothing seems abnormal but normality.”
Certainly helps to explain Sarah Palin and Alaska politics.
– On the “dark side” read that illegal aliens and their supporters were big losers
in yesterday’s Va. election — honestly, I was amazed how Job Bob finessed
the issue – let the right believe he shared their views, but really dodge the
issue in the campaign. Many of the big biz boys who donated to McDonnell love
cheap hard-working non-union workers – documented or not. This will be
interesting to follow.
Seriously? You reacted that badly to the W win? Your lack of tolerance of other’s opinions (the guy who cheered for Bush whose dropping out of college you still relish five years later) and your stance on a violent post election reaction (i.e. the smashed windows and vandalized cars w/Bush stickers on them) stun me. I’m embarrassed for the alumni of VCU that you tell this story like you’re proud of it. You wanted to punch the republican student with “all of the power and hate” you could muster??? Seriously … do you not see that intolerant attitudes like yours is part of the problem? Its been 5 years since 2004, time you matured. We all vote for the person we believe will do the right thing, republican, democrat, independent, whichever. No one deserves to be treated hatefully based on whom they support politically.
@CindyB
WOW, Cindy! This was the first time Manassas used the computers? Weird! What’s up with that?
Perhaps the dark side is counting its chickens before they hatch?
I saw Luter and Smithfield were big donators to Job Bob. They aren’t going to be happy if he slams them too badly. He definitely dodged that bullet.
On the other hand, Coo-Coo Nellie will beat them up big time and Job Bob can keep his hands clean. Funny how that works.
And finally, those with the biggest mouths will find out that they have to go by the same laws and policies the rest of the country does.
It will be interesting to watch, most definitely. Headed to that Smithsonian now, PR.
I had never seen the PW judges (is that what they are called?) using laptops either. Heretofore they have always used those huge IBM print outs and a ruler. Pinko, she means those who take your name and confirm you are a registered voter, not the voting machines.
There are some good analyses above, particulary Formerly and Opinion. I was stunned, frankly, that Fairfax county went to the GOP. I agree that Connolly will be defeated in 2010, I hope by a centrist. Perhaps we can convince Davis to come back.
McDonnell’s campaign was nearly flawless. I subsribe to most of his views although he will have to change his transportation plan to something more realistic now that he is in office. I deeply sympathize with his more conservative roots having moderated over the years, in particular after having a family. This is the course that Virginia has taken, so it is only right that a man like McDonnell should lead us during a time in his life where his own shifting views reflect the shifting views of the Commonwealth and the nation. I agree with Opinion that McDonnell has the potential to bring Virginia’s together and provide an example of centrist leadership and consensus building.
Deeds was the candidate of choice for the Post, otherwise, he would not have survived the primary. The Post felt he was the man of the hour because they are a newspaper and on paper Deeds made sense. A party that is trying to hold on to power during an upsurge of enthusiasm from the opposition should always nominate the most moderate candidate. But elections are no longer decided on paper, and in comparison to McDonnell, Deeds was never going to win the day.
I am very uneasy about the results of NY-23. I feel that was a lose-lose proposition for Republicans as soon as Hoffman decided to jump in. Given the two options, this was probably the best outcome. The woman who’s name I could never pronounce and won’t try to spell was not a good candidate, but she axed her entire career by endorsing the Democrat. How about the right to remain silent?
We’ve had touch screen voter machines in the city several years now. Only about 40% of the Commonwealth had them in 2008 from what I understand.
The computer laptops that City election officials use to check in voters are new. I was told every jurisdiction in Virginia will be mandated to use the computer check-ins by 2010.
@IWK Manassas
Seriously IWK quit trying to make martyrs and demons out of people you don’t even know. There was more than just politics between me and that loser, it almost came to a boil that day, but did not.
You don’t know me, you don’t know this guy and you don’t know our history. This guy and I were not strangers… rubbing our noses in the victory of the murderer Bush while it was apparent we were devistated was just about the iceing on a long baked cake…
but as I said, I maintained control and let it be… The guy realized he was not cut out for our department and dropped out… that’s suiting for a man who believed that civilians killed in war were ‘all terrorists anyway”
I suggest not jumping to character conclusions before you have all the facts.
I think we thought it was just over an election at first glance. IWK is usually a pretty fair minded person. Thanks for clarifying that there were ‘roots’ to this problem that went far beyond an election.
Yes, elections can make us furious for sure and there is always someone to come along and say just the wrong thing.
Ladies and Gentlemen….I present to you…..the liberal. Best part is, he’ll accuse everyone else of hatred!!!
I’m with IWK – it is horribly wrong to physically attack or intimidate people you
may disagree with or damage their property, unless of course, …… they
are Dallas Cowboy fans.
Mr. Ballance, no one here has vilified Creigh Deeds to my knowledge. The Republicans here don’t like him or his policies which is their right. We are not a Democratic blog.
I have not spoken the least bit distainfully of Creigh Deeds. I like him, I supported him, I voted for him. My husband did volunteer work for that campaign
I have criticized his campaign. I think he made a couple of strategic errors. On the other hand, given the national climate, I am not sure if Christ had run as a Democrat, if He would have been elected.
Perhaps you need to re-read what has been said about Creigh Deeds here on Anti. Make sure you distinguish between the supporters and the Republicans.
I read Rod as being honest but not necessarily proud. Politics and violence are never a good mix, but it is a test of the human condition to overcome such impulses, and being honest in confronting them is a first step.
2004 certainly was a divisive election, one that divided my household and my plac eof work. This year did not have that feeling. I think even the “thesis” outrage-o-holics in my family understood that both candidates are decent men who have devoted their lives to public service.
Let me add my name to the list of those who feel that Creigh Deeds is a good, honest man. My critique of his campaign is certainly not intended to be a reflection on the man personally. (And if I thought for a moment that Sen. Deeds actually read this blog, I would temper my critique even more.)
The man won a difficult nomination and had over 800,000 of his fellow Virginians vote for him to be the next governor. Sen. Deeds has nothing to hang his head over. That’s far more than most people ever achieve. (It’s certainly more than I’ve ever done!)
Formerly, thanks for your input. Well said! Agree 100%.
And if anyone sees where it could be misconstrued that I personally attacked Creigh Deeds, please let me know so I can take it down. I think Mr. Ballance has confused his blogs.
The turnout at my polling place was very light. My first thought was that the ‘hope and changers’ are not voting this time around — this is going to be a huge win for the Republicans. My hope is that this election will give the Blue Dogs pause if they vote on ‘cap and trade’ and the healthcare bill. We conservatives have very long memories.
My memory is long also. I haven’t forgotten how Bill Clinton was treated–day after day after day, even before he was inaugurated.
Its all in the numbers, not in what you vote for. Do more people think like you think or like the other guy thinks?
I did not vote for him; but all in all, I think Creigh Deeds is a pretty good, stand-up sort of guy. And that primary win was, indeed, an unexpected accomplishment of which he can always be proud. I seldom got the negative vibes from him which I get from so many in the professional political class. Tyler Ballance is thinking in the right direction, I would say. Many of us do have to decide to get past the armchair post-mortems which sometimes turn very nasty. There is a winner and a loser in all these contests. Everybody makes the critical mistakes at some point. But, as Teddy Roosevelt would have said, the man was in the arena, he was putting up a fight. That’s more than most of us have ever tried to do. Give the man credit for his try.
Clinton was a smart man. He knew to shift his policies when he lost the Congress, and he wound up pretty darn popular. Obama-rama, Reid and Pelosi don’t seem to display that level of intelligence. Obama is not in the same league as Bill Clinton was.
Well I think that Mr. Ballance got mixed up about which blog he was on. Wolverine is right. Mr. Deeds should be proud of his efforts. He has served the state proudly. Its also nice to see graciousness in victory. Thanks Wolverine.
@Wolverine
I’m with you…I think Deeds was a better choice than any other Democrat. My understanding of the man was that he was what we would call a Blue Dog Democrat. I’m not sure that it is his idea to beat the thesis horse to death, and I don’t know who came up with the “all negative ads” idea, but I’d like them to run Obama’s re-election campaign!
I am not sure why anyone would even want to run for office now. Those who are last night’s winners sure have their work cut out for them. Of course, they have a better situation to work with than those in many states do. Virginia rules and I wish the winners much luck.
Let me add that I wouldn’t mind seeing Deeds again, perhaps in a differently-run campaign.
Slowpoke, there is an interesting analysis of why that happened over on Blue Virginia.
One other thing before I collapse into my bed. I’ve been thinking all day about Last Best Hope’s post #34 from last night’s election thread, and I want to nominate him/her (I don’t know) for the “smartest person in the room” award. There’s an notion in that post that is spot-on about McDonnell not leading with hard-right social issues, but sticking to basic conservative principles of taxes, jobs, and the role of government. No need for any form of extremism, that’s not what conservatism is really about. Not that what I think matters, but Last Best Hope made a very smart point there.
a notion, that is….half-asleep.
I like Deeds but it seemed to me that he somehow didn’t have that “fire in the belly” that’s necessary to win an election like this one. I heard him speak and got a feeling that he didn’t quite belive in himself; IOW, he gave the impression of lacking self confidence .
The campaign was poorly run, really.
Yes, last year City of Manassas the people who checked your eligibility to vote still had those huge printouts which didn’t look all that easy to read. They used a ruler because the lines were so close together and very long in length. While I don’t vote in the City of Manassas anymore, good to know they finally got that part modernized.
Actually, the more shocking part of his post was about all the cars with Bush stickers that had smashed in windows. That’s property damage and criminal, and those who did it should have been convicted of such – there’s no excuse for something like that no matter how much you disagree with the results.
@GainesvilleResident
You don’t travel to Richmond very much do you… the police control very little between midnight and 5am.
It’s far from the lifestyles we live in NOVA…
No, I don’t travel to Richmond very often, but that still doesn’t excuse this kind of behavior.