A Republican strategist said something interesting and revealing on Friday, though it largely escaped attention in the howling gusts of punditry over Mitt Romney’s birth certificate crack and a potential convention-altering hurricane. The subject was a Ron Brownstein story outlining the demographic hit rates each party requires to win in November. To squeak out a majority, Mitt Romney probably needs to win at least 61 percent of the white vote — a figure exceeding what George H.W. Bush commanded over Michael Dukakis in 1988. The Republican strategist told Brownstein, “This is the last time anyone will try to do this” — “this” being a near total reliance on white votes to win a presidential election.
Is it possible to get 61% of the white vote? The men shouldn’t be a problem. The women might be a very serious problem. Last time I looked at polls, the break down was 54% Dem, 39% Repub. Of course, it all depends on which poll you look at and the election is really light years away. We are still in August.
There is just something about breaking down votes by white and non white that reminds me of a less desirable time in history.
Democrats are really pulling out the race card and doing so more overtly than I think most of us ever imagined. Chris Mathews is a tumor but is not the disease – that many of us thought the election of Barry Soereto would at least help to end.
But why pull the race card? If the failure to re-elect Barry is the Democrats fault for not giving him more money, could it be that old Barry wants to blame – I mean GD America ! again if he looses? The excuse train has just added more cars.
My sense is that the race card is really the back side of what others are calling the Fairness Fairy fable that Democrats also beleive in. You know, the fairness fairy that whisperss, you did not build it, Its the war on women, abortion is just about reproductive rights, there is no war on religion or the Catholic church- be happy, success is evil tax’em Danno, what me worry, I never knew anyody at Solyndra, freedom cannot be taken down one brick at a time and no – the Germans, Russians and Chinese knew what they were doing in return for more government control. Actually, I think Barry is the fairness fairy himself. He cares about race and gender and income security – the $716 billion to get Obamacare notwithstanding. He cares about equal outcomes and the redistribution of wealth – although his book earnings have gone more to him than others. He cannot beleive he earned it – when it comes right down to it he is the least qualified of all of our President’s, but he does not need to be qualified – he is the chosen. He does love that plane. More importantly, he has people, people who believe as he does and are willing to borrow your money, your children’s money and your grand children’s money to move toward his version of fairness, by being the fainess fairy. So if you don’t like what you have, are jealous of families that have moved generation by generation to success, opted out of school and the work required to get there, if you are a one issue voter, if you just want more – come to the fairness fairy, he can make it all right. That he has made matters worse and for longer is not to be discussed – that would be playing the race card.
Team Romney still needs to capture 6% of the white vote because he cannot capture the Latino and black vote. It isn’t so much that they are white….it is because what’s left over isn’t latino or black.
@Blue
psssst Obama doesn’t define abortion rights…the women of America do. Actually abortion rights deal with all sorts of ethical considerations and always have. Interesting though, soon some of your folks started to drag contraception issues into the abortion rights discussion. At any rate, the point in, some Republicans want to make all these decisions for other people all while bellowing and hollering about less government. Its very hypocritical. American women will make ethical decisions for themselves.
Additionally, if there is any war on religion, it is because people don’t want someone else’s religion shoved down their throat. There are 6 Catholics seated on the Supreme Court, 1/3 of Congress is Catholic, and the Vice President is Catholic. That’s a real war all right. I wish the Episcopalians were that heavily represented! That is just whining. Do you want Catholics to have it all?
Blue, your diatribe just told me a whole lot.
I am smiling over the race card. This, coming from the party of white?
The delegations from territories that are non-white will be seated very close to the podium and stage so they will show up on camera.
You REALLY hate him, don’t you?
@Moon-howler
Your reaction is as expected. Play that race card once again Sam. I actually do not hate him. Since you know nothing of me that is a bold conclusion. I do, however, fear him and what he and those who would follow him represent for this country and my children. Too many of my generations have given too much for the freedoms we enjoy to give it up for this self serving marxist.
Ha ha. I need to find that link to Republicans and fear again.
I’m white, grew up in an era where my tax dollars supported state universities which I couldn’t attend because of my gender, and am just fine with the progress this country has made in race relations and equal opportunities for women. I’m glad to see it represent members of my family who are minorities more equally. Mediocre white men need to get over the special privileges they enjoyed for so long and compete on a level playing field.
@Censored bybvbl
Agreed. A level playing field would be nice.
@blue
A level playing field in the future will mean fewer white men in positions of power – or even ordinary jobs. I’m fine with that. Are you?
You bet, if its a level playing field. How about you or does you playing field still hold on to discriminatory entitlements based on color, quotas, seniority or membership?
@blue, I am not sure what you are asking me. I am not sure what discriminatory entitlements based on color, quotas, seniority or membership I am holding on to or might be holding on to.
Some specifics please.
Sorry, I see now you weren’t talking to me. I am behind the scenes and reading backwards.
I might answer anyway. I think you will find I don’t support quota systems. Censored struck a nerve with me about supporting the colleges I couldn’t attend because of my gender. grrrrr. I am glad to see that practice ended.
I do believe in seniority, with standards. There is too big of a tendency to push those at the top of the mountain to save money.
Membership? Not sure what that means. If you are a member you have privileges non-members don’t have. Isn’t that the whole point of membership? I belong to Amazon Prime. Those who don’t belong don’t get the free shipping or the movies.
@Moon-howler
Whoa, Whoa lets check the crazy talk. First, Obama has defined his views on abortion rights to be unlimited reproduction rights through the 3rd trimester. Most Americans – and I believe even you Moon would disagree with that. It is a-moral. Second, who are my folks, but never mind, conservatives did not raise contraception as an issue until certain free willies started demanding free contraceptionat the expense of the taxpayer and without so much as a means test. That is just goofy. Talk about hypocritical –geez. And third, the war on religion, it NOT about somebody forcing their religion down their throat – it IS about a government that has NO respect for any religion or religous freedom and is prepared to force recognized religous institutions to violate their beliefs and comport to the beliefs of this Administration. Now you can call me goofy if you want to, but its a fact that once Lenin, Mao, Hitler and Chavez – got into power, their first target was the Church. But no worries, its only one brick at a time.
A relious test to be on the Supreme Court? Now that would mark a change in America wouldn’t it. Then again, I wonder how women and liberals generally would handle a nominee who overtly supported Sharia.
That is a lie. Obama said no such thing. He supports the framework of Roe vs. Wade. Obama didn’t say he supports unlimited rights through 3rd trimester. Someone has fed you a bill of goods.
I am not going to debate abortion. My personal views are…well…personal. I do support, as my public view, the framework of Roe V Wade which allows some abortion to take place 3rd trimester for severe fetal anomoly and extreme maternal distress….aka life of the mother. The state very much has an interest in controlling abortion conditions during the 3rd trimester because of fetal viability. There are some medical situations that become either or. those conditions are outliers. Now, lets leave Obama out of it and Clinton also. He too refused to sign one of those bills because life of the mother wasn’t part of verbage.
Oh double bullsh!t. There has been lots of talk of defunding Planned Parenthood which essentially cuts off contraception to women. I have heard all sorts of examples of contraception denial for decades. As a matter of fact, in some religions, abortion and using contraception carry the same bad girl weight which I find phenomenally stupid.
As for the “free contraception,” you aren’t paying for it, the insurance company and./or employer would be paying so cut the moral taxpayer outrage. Contraception is a great way to prevent unintended pregancy. No unintended or unwanted pregnancy eliminates the need for abortion. Isn’t that what you folk want?
I think we can all agree that fewer abortions would be a good thing. As for a means test, about about a means test for a liver transplant? a tubal ligation? What would you base it on? Why are you protecting employers and insurance companies? it sounds like all that has been done is that the co-pay has been dropped. Great!
The war on religion really is about forcing back those who would force their beliefs down others throats. Why should elena have to say Christian prayers to participate in local government? I don’t think she should. Why should my children and grandchildren have to be bullied when young life starts up in their school? If you don’t hop on the Young Life Train, you can quickly get ostracized. I could give you 100 other examples.
You say government has not respect for religion. That simply is not true. Government really should not be involved in the religious aspect of our lives.
As for a religious test, I don’t know what you are talking about. I was merely suggesting you had enough representation. Now who is this who is hawking Sharia law? Talk about a strawman argument.
@Moon-howler
I don’t Know there Moon. My mother attended some pretty prestigious institutions in the later 30s for a little country girl with no money from skullcap. That said, the number of careers available were limited and it is still her view – at 91 – that those careers or services did not benefit from widening those opportunities to men.
What are you saying? Women were not admitted to many state supported schools in Virginia except in schools of nursing and education. Virginia was not the only state where women were excluded because of gender. Since I don’t know your mother’s location, I can’t speak to it. I certainly know where I was not wanted.
@blue
You need to get over the idea that you should determine what individual women do with their fertility.
Because of our biology we will need different basic wellness policies. You will pay for women’s contraception (it’s all part of our biology – if you have a womb and can become pregnant, birth control should be a basic part of your insurance.) I’ll pay for men’s prostate exams. It’s not part of my biology but I’m willing to admit that the sexes are different and have different basic needs that should be covered as a basic part of our insurance.
If you don’t pay for contraception, you’re likely to pay later for other needs.
@Moon-howler
Fair enough. Ok, you’re right (uhggg that hurt) My guess is that blacks weren’t “wanted” in VA in those days either. Yankees did not have that problem or the scope of the same problem, but you still had to be above average as a woman or a black to push through those barriers. She credits a one-room school house for her early success. Those that did, were better qualified in those – admittedly – limited career paths.
Now I think we have dumbed the system down enough to admit anybody and have begun to pay for it in several ways.
You are right. Blacks weren’t wanted either.
The standards weren’t the same for women who were granted admission. Women had to have higher credntials than men at one point. I don’t even think blacks were in the running but I wouldnt swear to it. I am thinking of Wm and Mary. Let’s put it this way…they weren’t the least bit interested in Mistress Moon. By the time my brother came along, the standards for minorities had been lowered a great deal. I am not sure about the women. (if standards were lowered) (I am thinking UVA now)
I love the discussion of race and polls. You are all familiar, of course, with the recent WSJ poll that showed Romney with 0% black support. No, no racism involved there! Funny thing is, you can’t get 94% of white people to agree on ANYTHING!
I don’t think that is a fair assessment about the 94% white people agreeing. I don’t think it is amazing at all that Romney has 0% black support. When I was a child, I can remember my parents talking about the poll tax. They supported it by the way. I am not THAT old. It would surprize me if blacks did vote for any white man over Obama. I see an awful lot of people voting for Romney because he is white. How is that different?
It really isn’t racism. Its voting for someone like you. I sort of feel that way about Hillary. (no sarah palin didnt quite cut it)
@Moon-howler
Re: Barry’s support for unlimited abortion v. Roe.
“That is a lie. Obama said no such thing. He supports the framework of Roe vs. Wade. Obama didn’t say he supports unlimited rights through 3rd trimester. Someone has fed you a bill of goods.”
Maybe. Its simple to Google with “Obama and 3rd Trimester Abortions. ” Video is pretty convincing.
You understand that pro choice people support the Roe vs Wade structure and that third trimester is regulated by the state as per the opinion of harry Blackmun?
I totally agree with what he just said. I didn’t see any reference from him as to trimesters. “Late term” can mean pretty much anything post first trimester.
His answer was very general. You are inserting time constraits in there and it is disingenuous and relies on weasel words–not on his part.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/video-obama-says-hes-pro-choice-third-trimester-abortions_650524.html
Never did Obama mention or respond to “third Trimester.”
I look at it this way, if you look at the unemployment numbers for African-Americans, I’m thinking if they want four more years of Obama, they should have it!
Don’t forget that in 2008 over 90% of the black vote went to Obama and 55% of the white vote went to McCain. The division and rancor have only grown since then (i.e. you didn’t build that ….), so I would not be surprised if the racial divide becomes even more pronounced this November.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1083335/Breakdown-demographics-reveals-black-voters-swept-Obama-White-House.html
@Kelly
I keep hearing on TV that Romney needs 61% of the white vote to win.
Kelly, I agree, the division and rancor has grown. It appears to be mostly in the white ranks. White people have gotten more bold about expressing themselves.
@Moon-howler
One more time: If the last four years had been successful at almost any level, do you really think there would be this Democrat focus on race? And yet, while it is all MSLSD can talk about, were is the the Chosen One trying to stop the ugliness – he is silent. He is, in fact, encouraging it. You can vote for that?
The Republicans are not invoking race, there is no upside for the GOP to do so. The potental backlash is bigger than any potential benefit. Moon, even you would have to agree that if anyone is going to vote against Obama for purely racial reasons – that vote is already in the bag Does anyone think that the such people voted for Obama 2008? That is silly
What is happening is that Democrats are raising racism at every turn as a get out the vote effort. Its not just another ugly and dangerous “big lie” it also serves as a distraction from the substantive issues outlined last night at the GOP Convention. So when the MSLSD folks talk about race, let’s identify it for the false issue and distraction that it really is. It’s just one more way to try to distract voters and intimidate those opposed to the President from pointing out what an abject failure he has been. Worse, in reversing the historic political appeal from being a racist to accusing others of racism in an historic election, there really could be as backlash that the Chosen One will need to take ownership and responsibility for. Now ain’t that a kick.
.
@blue
Blue, I’m sure you’re right, the Democrats are invoking race so they don’t have to talk about Republicans being anti women or anti immigrant, trying to keep Democrats from voting or dismantling Medicare for Seniors or killing healthcare for everyone!
@Bear
Thanks Bear, you are right, the broader level of stupid, disingenuous and distractives also confirm the point. If you throw enougth of that crap up somebody is bound to take some of it. Chicago petty politics 101. I know, I know, why should I be surprised.
@blue
I see sarcasam is lost in this conservation