Could our reputation in the forecoming months get much worse?

Last month, Prince William County had the most new filings of any Washington area jurisdiction, followed by Prince George’s, Fairfax, Montgomery, Loudoun and the District, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a California-based company that tracks real estate trends.

When foreclosures rise, crime often follows, researchers said. A 2005 study by the Georgia Institute of Technology and the Woodstock Institute found that, holding other factors constant, each foreclosure in a 100-house neighborhood corresponded to a 2.4 percent jump in violent crime.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/26/AR2008042601288_2.html

Admin is busy, so I (Elena), thought this would be a great topic to discuss today.  What I want to know is, how does the pro “fully fund the immigration resolution” side, reconcile this quandry:

A) The resolution is working because we have seen an exodus of hispanics from neighborhoods, the ones that people complained about were responsible for overcrowding, chickens and roosters in their yards,  day laboreres at 7-11 ‘s, ESOL enrollment reduced, etc.     Where did these people live, well, they lived in homes, either as renters or has homeowners.  Were they ALL “illegal”, I would venture to say NO, but even if they were, their houses are empty now, and  forclosure consequences to these neighborhoods are the same, irregardless of the immigration status of the occupants who once lived there.

OR

B) The resolution is NOT responsible for the increased forclosure rate, ESOL dis-enrollment, or the multitude of empty shopping centers, or the mass exodus of hispanics from neighborhoods. Therefore, the resolution is not working and is a waste of money from the pro resolution perspective.

Let me clarify one point,  I am not suggesting the resolution is responsible for the ENTIRE forclosure disaster, I AM suggesting that the reason PWC is DOUBLE that of our neighbors, and is number one in the region for forclosures, is the one variable that sets us apart……………the illegal immigration resolution.

107 Thoughts to “Criminal Element of Home Forclosures”

  1. Ruby

    The foreclosures in the county were happening and increasing way before the resolution came along. Foreclosures are happening in ALL districts in PWC. They are not just happening in neighborhoods that had the most problems. There are plenty of folks loosing their houses in Dominion Valley Country Club, Bull Run Mountain Estates, Ashland, Great Oak, Thunder Oak, Piedmont etc. Many folks got locked in to loans that were not in the borrowers best interest long term. Everyone wanted in the real estate game, and a piece of the action. These lenders knew exactly what they were doing when they exploited each and every one of these borrowers from ALL walks of life, nationalities, and income levels. I do believe the majority of the foreclosures are folks with Hispanic last names. Now, of course we DO NOT know who is and who is NOT illegal. So, unless they’ve been taken to the jail we don’t know. I don’t think a vast majority of the law breakers are property owners.

    The bottom line is legals and illegals have left PWC for an array of reasons. I don’t think the resolution is reason NUMERO UNO by any means.

  2. redawn

    # redawn said on 27 Apr 2008 at 11:14 am:

    Elena,

    There are numerous factors even before the DRAFT of the Resolution.

    This area already made this list back in June of ‘07

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/

    Also see this link of the doubled foreclosures
    http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2007/05/30/foreclosures-almost-double/

    And finally this ad I ran across this morning.

    New mortgage crisis looms

    Steep price declines and interest-rate resets will have even prime borrowers simply walking away from their mortgage obligations.
    By Mark Gimein, Slate

    http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_slate.aspx?cp-documentid=6914731&GT1=35000

  3. Moon-howler

    Good information Ruby, Thank you.

    I read in the paper that there were 3,300 foreclosures approximately in our county. I heard one of the OTHER speakers on the video imply that people were disappointed that they couldn’t buy up an house that had been auctioned because competition was so stiff to grab up one of those houses.

    I have talked to many people who tell me that these houses rarely, if ever, sell in this county because they have to be sold for what is owed to the bank.

    Did the speaker lie? Why would anyone lie to the supervisors when this information is so easy to confirm or deny?

    Can you shed some light on how this all works?

  4. Ruby

    I will put this in very simple terms. If the competition was all that, why are there SO MANY vacant houses. I will admit I’ve seen a few folks move into my neck of the woods. However, I don’t think constitutes fierce bidding wars.

    I do remember in the fall hearing a couple ladies at Citizens Time speak of going to an auction at the courthouse. There were something 45+ properties being sold that day. And NOT a soul there to bid on them. The bank would be stuck with them.

  5. Kenneth Reynolds

    I agree Ruby, that foreclosures are not mainly caused by the resolution. That said, we have MORE foreclosures than even Fairfax which is 3 x bigger than us. The resolution, has i believe, pushed us over the top and made marginal areas into destitute areas….like Marumsco Plaza. The UVa- JMU study will shed more light on this…..but all will find i believe it is the loss of construction jobs and the resolution and fewer immigrants of all kinds moving into bigoted pwc…….there are real estate auctions going on all over……a lot of auction houses are in Anacostia and they sell homes in all areas of the region……..i dont have specifics……..but wish the county could set up some tax free deals….waive real estate taxes for a yr……this migt stabilize the mkt and stop the free fall in prices

  6. redawn

    Foreclosures Update

    Foreclosures update from http://www.foreclosure.com.

    “Active” Foreclosures 04/20/2007

    Arlington: 9
    Fairfax: 139
    Loudoun: 97
    Prince William: 184
    Frederick: 22
    Fauquier: 10
    Culpeper: 14
    Stafford: 35

    “Active” Foreclosures 04/09/2007

    Arlington: 8
    Fairfax: 183
    Loudoun: 116
    Prince William: 255
    Frederick: 24
    Fauquier: 11
    Culpeper: 18
    Stafford: 51

    http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2007_04_01_archive.html

  7. Guerita

    I”m going to respond to the ESOL enrollment.
    What the red-sticker brigade forgets is the fact that money brought into the schools for ESOL, never makes it into an ESOL classroom. The money is put in the pot for the entire school budget. In truth, these students bring money into our schools that they never see.
    When they funding is cut, as it’s going to be this year, the art, music,and technology components of the budget will be the first to go.
    All of our kids suffer when this happens.

  8. Elena

    Ruby,
    What other reason sets us apart from other counties, why are we DOUBLE? I know that immigrants generaly are more at risk for improper lending practices, but once again, the one variable that sets us apart is the resolution. So if the resolution isn’t the reason for people leaving, than that must mean we are spending almost 30 million dollars, sacraficing our reputation, for nothing?

  9. Ruby

    Elena,
    I don’t have all the answers. I will give you my honest assessment here. We are probablly double due to the fact PWC was affordable, safe community, decent enough schools, and pretty attractive to those that wanted to escape the growth and higher taxes of neighboring counties. PWC was attactting the most vunerable to these predatory lenders.

    As for the resolution. Thre is a BIG PICTURE out there which seems to be getting overlooked by the extremest.

  10. redawn

    Ruby,

    I agree with your assesment

  11. Moon-howler

    So there are not people out there lining up to fight over and buy our PWC houses at auction like SOMEONE stated in the Dr. Fuller on Real Estate market thread.

    If SOMEONE says something they know to be false, isn’t that trying to mislead our supervisors by LYING?

  12. admin

    Welcome Guerita.

    Love the comment about the red-sticker brigade.

  13. Ruby

    I suppose it depends on if you are and HONEST person or NOT. IMHO

  14. redawn

    Moon-howler @ 12:39,

    I am not knowledgeable on “Short sale” but I think that has something to do with this mess too and the hold up/ fight over bidding wars. If a lender/ real agent is reading and can explain further it would be great. I am looking for more info…

    Also a side not about the increase of home sales in March, I think that Bank take backs contribute to that number. I could be wrong…

  15. Ruby

    I would like to say the lowest figure the price, assesment, or appraisal is what the recordation tax is figured on. This needless to say severely decreases the amount of tax revenue being generated in the Circuit Court Clerk’s office.

  16. Poor Richard

    Back to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Servive study of the
    Hispanic population in Virginia. In 2006 Manassas Park was
    30%, Manassas 27%, and PWC 19% (Loudoun County, for example,
    was close to 9%). A large portion of the individuals
    getting shaky home loans during this period were Hispanic
    – consequently, the areas that experienced the most recent, rapid
    and concentrated growth in the Hispanic population
    are the same ones hurt most by the glut of foreclosures.
    It isn’t racism, it is the hard ball of economic reality
    when a bubble pops – which would have happened – resolution
    or no resolution. The last folks buying into a Ponzi scheme
    never have a good experience.

    Would suggest to the BOCS that they remain flexible and
    willing to make adjustments based on the most recent information
    — focus on the long term good of all PWC and not HSM or MWB.
    What seemed right even a month ago may not be right now.

  17. Elena

    Poor Richard, I agree that we have a higher population of hispanics, no argument there. I agree that immigrants generally are more vulnerable to shady loans. However, I do know, first hand stories,of people leaving, who are documented and not documented leaving everything behind because they were afraid. I know, first hand, perfectly documented hispanics, that will not come to PWC to work because they are concerned they will be harrassed by the police. Now, I am agreeing that they will be harassed, I am just suggesting that perception is 9/10 of the law 🙂

  18. maribel

    Everyone is so worried about PWC reputation. The reputation its had for being a trashy, unkept, dirty county. Things are getting MUCH better since the Resolution was passed. How about focus all of your enegy towards ENFORCING the law? So the blame game again….blame increase in crime on the rise in foreclosures…how ignorant. ENFORCE the law! Word has it that JUDICIAL WATCH is starting procedures to file suit against the esteemed Ricardo Juarez and his esteemed orgainaztion MSF for harboring, aiding and abeting ILLEGAL ALIENS in PWC. Remember, everyone….this Thurs. at Malcolm X Park..protest, protest, protest. Marcha, marcha, marcha (Hey, Firedancer, that means “march” en Ingles). Si se puede ( hey, Firedancer, that means “yes we can” en ingles). “En Ingles” means “in English” in Spanish. So much for today’s Spanish lesson….WOW, FREE Spanish lessons….such a deal!

  19. Maribel, not a single person I’ve ever met outside of PWC thought it was trashy. The place still has the reputation of being “backwoods” if anything else, and this lack of progressive, critical thinking just strengthens the stereotype.

    As far as proving how much the resolution had to do with foreclosures and empty houses, you’d have to do a survey of everyone who has left or is planning to leave. Without that kind of information, this is all just speculation.

  20. Poor Richard

    Elena,
    If a citizen is “harassed” by the police for no other
    reason than DWB (driving while brown) then that is cause for
    legal action — anybody, who obeys the law, should have no fear.
    This is still the United States – and Federal laws trump
    local “resolutions”.

  21. Cindy B

    Bicker, bicker back and forth. It’s like a kid watching parents argue. What gets resolved? Nothing. Years from now, you can’t remember what the argument was all about, just that there were lots of fights.

    If you put hateful karma out there, you get hateful karma back.

    Get out of the house, take a walk, smile and meet your neighbors. Take a litter bag along and bend over and pick up trash. It’s good exercise and you find money. I went to the Earth Day festival in Old Town Manassas yesterday. Took a pair of glasses, some inkjet cartridges and some gently worn dresses to be recycled. Then I took a bag and picked up litter in front of Osbourn High School and the war memorial. I could hear music and singing near the 9500 Liberty sign. People were having fun, being out on a sunny day. Even after the thunderstorm, there was a double rainbow. If everybody did just one thing toward solutions and getting along, we would have a much friendlier, welcoming community.

    That includes keeping an eye out for the empty houses on your block. I reported a broken second floor window on a house several weeks ago (in the City).

  22. Willoughby

    Elena said on 27 Apr 2008 at 1:16 pm:
    Now, I am agreeing that they will be harassed, I am just suggesting that perception is 9/10 of the law

    Elena, can you give us anything other than anecdotal evidence that hispanics are being harassed by police? I have seen one very sketchy letter to the Potomac news alleging that a police car was driving by a couple of groups of hispanic men, causing them to scatter. That is one person’s perception of what could have been just a harmless patrol to make sure either the persons were safe or that they weren’t loitering on commercial property–i.e. doing police work. Otherwise, I have not seen or heard anything solid to prove this.

  23. Juturna

    I am concerned about PWC’s reputation as regards economic development. Our residential tax base is 65% of the general fund. Our commercial tax base is 45%. It needs to be reversed or do you have a better solution Maribul.

    Who wants to move here? The schools reputation as the lowest per pupil in DC metro area smacks of something wrong. I understand all about relationship to SAT scores, but I also know that either extreme is a red flag.

    I would certainly worry about PWC’s reputation to attract major employers, the kind that hire full time employees with health insurance.

  24. Moon-howler

    And the smartest comment of the day award goes to Poor Richard for the following

    Would suggest to the BOCS that they remain flexible and
    willing to make adjustments based on the most recent information
    — focus on the long term good of all PWC and not HSM or MWB.
    What seemed right even a month ago may not be right now.

    That says it all. HSM and MWB will just have to suck it up.

  25. Ruby

    And the funniest quote of the day award goes to MH for..

    That says it all. HSM and MWB will just have to suck it up.

  26. Willoughby

    That is a funny quote, Ruby. Even funnier when the Resolution is uphold to the fullest on Tuesday.

  27. Willoughby

    pardon me, “upheld,” I mean.

  28. LuckyDuck

    I share Juturna’s concerns. If we can’t increase our commercial tax base we will always be subjected to harder hits when the bubbles burst. Our reputation has been affected and businesses do not like flashpoints. So we’ll lose out where as earlier we were in the competition.

    Elena, I think at least a part of our higher foreclosure rate was as someone stated, we were a more affordable county in which to buy a starter home or upgrade your home. So consequently, when the jobs began to dry up, we had more homeowners on the edge financially speaking. Our median income is lower that Arlington’s and Fairfax’s so our homeowners had less of a safety net when the jobs folded up.

  29. Moon-howler

    Luckyduck and Juturna both speak with wise tongue. I agree with both of you.

    Part of Manassas Park’s problem has always been lack of business, especially businesses that offer health benefits. The residents have to absorb most of the tax burden in MP. If we run off our businesses because they cannot afford to do business here….do we become Manassas Park?

    To that I say no thank you.

    Ruby, the devil made me do it. Not saying which devil though. Don’t want to get forked…pitch forked that is.

  30. Kenneth Reynolds

    maribel said on 27 Apr 2008 at 2:01 pm:
    Everyone is so worried about PWC reputation. The reputation its had for being a trashy, unkept, dirty county. Things are getting MUCH better since the Resolution was passed. How about focus all of your enegy towards ENFORCING the law? So the blame game again….blame increase in crime on the rise in foreclosures…how ignorant. ENFORCE the law! Word has it that JUDICIAL WATCH is starting procedures to file suit against the esteemed Ricardo Juarez and his esteemed orgainaztion MSF for harboring, aiding and abeting ILLEGAL ALIENS in PWC. Remember, everyone….this Thurs. at Malcolm X Park..protest, protest, protest. Marcha, marcha, marcha (Hey, Firedancer, that means “march” en Ingles). Si se puede ( hey, Firedancer, that means “yes we can” en ingles). “En Ingles” means “in English” in Spanish. So much for today’s Spanish lesson….WOW, FREE Spanish lessons….such a deal!

    Kenneth said – Yo mierda cabeza Maribel……usted es muy muy bigot!!! PWC reputation is and was whatever one wishes to make of it and look at it. Some call it something approaching what you said…..but in my 35 yrs here…nothing quite as stupid as your description.one thing is sure Ms. Dum-Dum!!!! THINGS ARE NOT BETTER SINCE THE RESOLUTION….nowhere……try and market your house these days…..and btw, we havent had such sad publicity since Lorena sliced off Bobbitt’s dick in the middle of the night….i agree that things would be better if we enforced the law..OUR friggin laws….not the ones that the federal govt made and cannot straighten out!! Do our neighborhood overcrowdding and disorderly conduct and motor vehicles……..but deportation efforts….give me a break……wait til we get our asses sued in federal court….then people like you might see reality..i hope to make the Marcha…..even toughim irish catholic..i dont know what you are Maribel…..but you can always move if you dont like it here!! Then, PWC would be vastly better…….

  31. redawn

    Kenneth Reynolds,

    “i dont have specifics……..but wish the county could set up some tax free deals….waive real estate taxes for a yr……this migt stabilize the mkt and stop the free fall in prices”

    you might be interested in this article

    Critics warn Senate bill might spur foreclosures

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-04-07-foreclosure-bill_N.htm

  32. “Get out of the house, take a walk, smile and meet your neighbors. Take a litter bag along and bend over and pick up trash. It’s good exercise and you find money.” That’s right. And besides, it’s relaxing.

    Speaking of the Liberty Sign, I drove down there today. I didn’t see anything hateful. Did they change it or something?

  33. Kenneth Reynolds

    Juturna said on 27 Apr 2008 at 3:08 pm:
    I am concerned about PWC’s reputation as regards economic development. Our residential tax base is 65% of the general fund. Our commercial tax base is 45%. It needs to be reversed or do you have a better solution Maribul.
    Who wants to move here? The schools reputation as the lowest per pupil in DC metro area smacks of something wrong. I understand all about relationship to SAT scores, but I also know that either extreme is a red flag.

    Kenneth said – What do you mean by “the schools reputation as the lowest per pupil in DC metro” ??? Do you mean funding? your stats may be true…you do havea lot of good stuff on here….but this item…..i strongly question…….we are by no means the highest academically, but we are up near there and not towards the lower end!!! Answer??????

  34. Kenneth Reynolds

    redawn said on 27 Apr 2008 at 4:14 pm:
    Kenneth Reynolds,
    “i dont have specifics……..but wish the county could set up some tax free deals….waive real estate taxes for a yr……this migt stabilize the mkt and stop the free fall in prices”
    you might be interested in this article
    Critics warn Senate bill might spur foreclosures
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-04-07-foreclosure-bill_N.htm

    KENNETH SAID – That point is well-taken Dawn…YOU are a rocket science researcher to come up with that!! I am familiar with the federal proposal and it gave me the idea to the effect—-WHY DOES THE BOCS CONTINUE TO BASH? WHY DONT THEY DO SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIVE!!!!! A local tax brreak would certainly cause local market disruptions, but would also tend to make the foreclosed more desirable to investors……..given the issues raised at the federal level, i cant see the BOCS doing something like this……i only wish they would do something constructive……and believe a tax credit would be a reasonable incentive!!

  35. Moon-howler

    Willoughby,

    Will you find it equally funny when 85 PWC employees do not have jobs? How about the teachers in PWC not having a cost of living raise? How about some children sitting in a classroom without a certified teacher because none can be found, or afforded if the teacher leaves mid-year?

    Will it be funny if the county is sued because the supervisors were too short-sighted to follow the advice of those they pay to run the county? The CXO, the police chief and the county attorney all recommend dash board cameras for all the police cars.

    If you can’t run with the big dogs, stay on the porch. PWC cannot run with the big dogs now. It cannot afford it.

    Willoughby, you must not live in the county or you would not be laughing.

  36. redawn

    Kenneth Reynolds.

    “YOU are a rocket science researcher to come up with that!!”

    OMG, I was rolling on the floor with that statement. I only wish I could get paid like a Rocket Scientist for researching and asking my favorite question, ever: WHY?

    LOL

    I don’t know the answers but I would just say, keep looking with an OPEN mind and bypassing the arguments that are non essential aka a waste of TIME.

    Everyone is in agreement that there is a problem, the past is the past. We need to look at what WE ALL can do NOW 🙂

  37. redawn

    Something else that just crossed my mind…, with the gas increases (today I just paid $3.54 a gallon OUCH) and the inflation of food and PROPOSED shortages and restrictions such as rice, Where does that figure into the County budget, esp., the FUEL cost. The cost to fuel ALL the county vehicles? Do they get a break in someway from the fed gov.?

  38. Juturna

    KR, I did neglect to specifically state that PWC is the lowest in spending per student in the region. Once that statistic is stated, the usual response is relating per pupil spending to SAT scores. As Mr. Stewart likes to point out DC is the highest per student spending in the US without a correspondingly high SAT score.

    We are at the bottom of the spending comparision regionally. I don’t think being at either extreme is good. Certainly would not not be plus for a large company thinking about relocation.

    Cant accurately quote PWC’s SAT scores will try to find them. I think what should be looked at is not the actual score but the change from year to year….and the trend.

  39. Elena

    O.K., lets say I am wrong, that is always a slight possiblity :), and the forclosure rate is simply because we are a bedroom community with inexpensive housing and the subsequent construction market has dried up and THAT is explains why so many people have left our area then I still ask, WHY WHY WHY are we wasting MILLIONS of dollars on a resolution if the empty houses and empty shopping centers are simply due to market adjustments? Either way, I think my point is made. Greg and HSM say the resolution is working because ESOL enrollemnt is down and people are no longer loitering and hispanic businesses are shutting down because they no longer “illegals” to patronage their establishments. So please, someone tell me, is the resolution working or not?!

  40. Juturna

    Redawn

    The county just tapped yet ANOTHER reserve at the last meeting to transfer funds to support fuel costs.

    Hope we don’t need any reserves in the future. Ooops that’s right we are not interested in the future or a five year plan, because some might be elected to another office before then….

    The county is being hijacked and we are all watching and some are cheering……

  41. redawn

    “So please, someone tell me, is the resolution working or not?!”

    I said and STILL say NO!

    Now, the question is out there can we afford to fund it?

    I say NO.

  42. redawn

    opps. that was to you Elena 🙂

  43. redawn

    Juturna ,

    Your explanation is ALL the more reason to LOOK at the budget NOW….someone brought up what worked a month ago won’t work now…THIS IS THE VERY REAL situation that WE ARE ALL IN.

    When I bought gas today, the clerk asked me if I felt something greater was going on…with the fuel prices, food, etc….I won’t get into it but the gist is something is in the air and we all have to feel it. The big question is What is going on/
    We can argue all day/night long about immigration, state, fed, global warming but what is the REAL culprit for our economic downturn, THAT DID NOT HAPPEN OVER NIGHT.

  44. junkyard dog

    Kenneth,

    PWC has the lowest per-pupil spending of all the jurisdictions in the area. Additionally, the teacher pay is the lowest. This condition is a fairly recent turn of events. We used to be near the top.

    It is very difficult to attract and retain high quality teachers. They all go to other jurisdictions.

  45. Juturna

    Well can you imagine that the Iraqi’s are charging full price for fuel in Iraq???

    Global warming is interferring with wheat which is increasing food costs. The potential capturing of solar power at the Mojave desert would provide power for a tremendous portion of the US.

    Unfortunately, we’ve not spent one dime investigating that. We are funding a war in Iraq. I see that happening in PWC as a microcosm of the US.

    Sad sad state of affairs…. I agree that illegal immigration needs to be addressed. I simply don’t believe it is the root of all problems and the most important problem in PWC.

  46. Juturna

    Iraqi’s are charging the US Military full price in Iraq is what I meant to say.

  47. redawn

    Juturna,

    I can’t argue with that. Very, very sad, indeed, ALL the more reason to keep asking.
    I think are to many complacent people that, as long as they are able to pay their bills,or abuse the system to get away from working, or living in the bubble of living beyond their means, they are content and do not ask why.
    I admit, I was there a little over a year ago….( working and ignoring the arena of politics)

    I see a lot of distractions to get to the answers

  48. Marie

    Kenneth Reynolds at 3:48 in responseto Maribel.

    Kenneth I am laughing so hard I am crying. Way to go!!! You must have had Wheaties for breakfast. Just could not resist saying I am so glad someone told Maribel off.

  49. Moon-howler

    What do we mean when we ask ‘is the resolution working?’

    If it were ‘working’ I would expect to get up in the morning, look out of my window, and see NO illegal aliens. None. Nada. I didn’t know 6 months ago who was illegal and I don’t know now, but I should not be seeing any at all since the resolution is supposedly working.

    What bothers me is, I keep hearing from HSM members that they got the Resolution passed and it is working….the ILLEGALS (cringe) left our area. Then, when someone asks about all the vacant houses, (over 3000 now in our county) then HSM equivocates and says well that was the economy and the housing market.

    Well, HSM, which is it? You cannot have it both ways.

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