Crime Statistics in Prince William County INCREASED for the second-half of 2007 after the passage of the “Immigration Resolution”, numbers were higher for the July thru December timeframe for: burglary, auto theft, larceny, assault, robbery and homicides.
Here’s the breakdown:
Note: January-June 2007 prior to Immigration Resolution and
July-December 2007 is after the passage of the Immigration Resolution
| Jan-Jun | Jul-Dec | |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 469 | 527 |
| Auto Theft | 302 | 310 |
| Larceny | 2466 | 2872 |
| Assault | 1370 | 1401 |
| Felony Assault | 175 | 137 |
| Robbery | 124 | 148 |
| Rape | 15 | 13 |
| Homicide | 4 | 5 |
According to the 2007 Crime Statistic Report,
The crime rate, which is a percentage of the total number of crimes per population, in Prince William County has been consistently decreasing over the past several years. Violent crime represents a small portion of the total crime in the County, with crimes against property accounting for 92% of the total crime.
Prince William’s overall crime rate — the number of crimes per 1,000 residents — dropped from 21.6 in 2006 to 19.8 in 2007, down from 24.5 in 2004 and 22.8 in 2005.
Some year-to-date crimes against people for 2008 have also increased from last year’s numbers through the same time period.
I wonder how Mr. Stewart and pals will spin this?
Thank you for this very detailed thread Alanna! I love it, graphs, something I can totally understand immediately.
So, Corey, once again, shows how willing he is to undermine the truth for his own political gain. Not only has crime been steadily decreasing since 2003, thanks to the leadership of Chief Deane and his excellent police force, but there was actually a very slight increase AFTER the resolution passed. What is the most troubling to me now, with Corey’s blatent misleading comments to the news media, is that NUMBERS USA/FAIR is now propogating the lie based on Corey’s statement. Does Corey even care that a hate group is now using this untrue information to futher their cause?
It’s likely that some will still find a way to still pin this on illegal immigration, whether it has a basis in statistical data or not. They may try to focus on felony assault or rape. Who knows? Some people have a very difficult time changing their opinion even when faced with facts that show they are wrong.
Of course, maybe I’m just being cynical. I suppose I should be open-minded and wait to see what happens…
HERE’s what’s important. Of those crimes, what percentage were committed by illegal aliens?
From now on, we should know.
Diversity Gal,
I agree…I am programmed to be cynical in this day and age. You are not alone!
Rick,
Well, now we will know since everyone’s status is being checked after they are arrested.
Rick, I believe the jails would have that information, and to my knowledge, the percentage is very low (the last Chief Deane report).
Excellent stat work here, Alanna.
Here are some things to think about: crimes against Hispanics have risen. Again, the Chief has verified this.
Second: violent crimes such as we hear highlighted by the anti-immigration crowd, are not the majority of crimes. So the theory that illegal immigration is responsible for violent crime in PWC has been debunked.
Third: if there are so many fewer illegal immigrants in the county, how are the numbers up in the second half of 2007? Supposedly, the “bad people” ran away right? So we can assume the “good people” are committing the crimes, yes?
Things to think about…
We can start placing bets on the classical excuses. I have not been to BVBL yet so let’s see how my powers of perception fare. I’m guessing the #1 spin line will be something like this…
” The slight increases in crime are actually a sign that in fact the Rule of Law is working in PWC. The remaining criminal aliens are acting like trapped animals as more and more are being brought to justice. These increases in crime are a last resort before they too are taken away. We pridict that in the comming days and months, there will be a sudden major decrease in criminal activites as Help Save Manassas steps up it’s crime prevention program with the cooperation of state and local authorities. As more and more vacant properties are filled by law abiding citizens, we expect to see PWC leading other counties in Northern Virginia in having low to no crime rates. We should take the time to thank Corey Stuart and the brave members of yada yada yada….”
(now to see if BVBL follows the propaganda spin logic I studied in college, because the above is nothing but pure B.S.)
Truth be told, this is a recession, recessions break people and broken people sometimes resort to crime to get by. Failure in life (or the preception of failure) is an equal oppertunity employeer, a force that crosses the bounds of color and creed. Investing time and money in the local war on poverty in you communities provides better safeguards against rising crime rates.
Invest Local, Shop Local, Employ Local, Help Local it’s up to all of us to preserve our communities responsibly, our government will not do it for us.
but remember….
If you build a community on hate, you willl hate the community you build.
Lol, Rod2155, you’ve saved them the time of writing the script!
HERE’s what’s important. Of those crimes, what percentage were committed by illegal aliens?
From now on, we should know.
Actually, Rick, we may not know because many crimes will remain unsolved.
Hi kgottahardt, you said:
“Here are some things to think about: crimes against Hispanics have risen. Again, the Chief has verified this.”
Are there some statistics to prove this? Also, can tell how many of the crimes against Hispanics have been caused by Hispanics (Hispanic on Hispanic crime)? The Chief can say this, and I don’t dispute it, but I would like some evidence other than hearsay.
Its true that statistics can be interpreted in different ways. I personally don’t believe the resolution has had a direct impact on any crime statistic except perhaps in the area of calls for service. If your population is decreasing, in theory your calls for service should decrease too because you have a smaller population contacting the police.
It is very difficult to take ANNUAL crime statistics and divide them during the year. For example, January to June will usually have lower crime stats than July to December.
Why? First, because teenagers are out from school on June13th and most of your burglars are teenagers so that crime is higher over the summer. Also, the summer months are when most people travel, leaving houses vacant, ripe for burglaries. Next, most of your suspects in larcenies are also teenagers so that stat will be highter in the summer months (1/2 of June, July and August) than in January to June.
Also, late November to December are the holidays. Typically there is a spike in crime such as burglaries, larcenies and yes, armed robberies around the holidays because criminals need money too, and more people buy things and carry around cash for the holidays. The term “Christmas rush” has a different meaning for a police department.
The above statisical differences in Rape and Homicide are numerically the same for each period and these two crimes are difficult to quantify into 6 month periods as homicide is usually a crime of sudden passion and the criminal act of rape can be influenced by factors such as an attack by a person known to the victim or a serial rapist. I do not recall Prince William ever having a serial rapist (thankfully) which can influence statistics.
The resolution did not lower our County’s crime rate. It was in a steady decline before the concept was even broached here.
There are criminal elements in all segments of society and there are good people in all segments of society. While using statistics to show overall crime rates can be useful, any attempt to blame crime rates on one ethnic group is wrong and statistically unusable. If anything about any groups of people impact crime rates, it is the economic status of the group, not ethinicity.
Hello, I have to look up the report and/or interview. I know it is somewhere. If anyone can find it before I do, PLEASE do! Not sure how much time I have to cite this source this morning. I am not sure I have it on my own blog, but I will look.
Lucky, I suspect overall the resolution has just caused hatred more than anything else. It coud be the rest are just coorelations, not causations.
Rod, love that quote: “If you build a community on hate, you willl hate the community you build.”
Did you make that up? I might want to use it somewhere.
Great points Lucky Duck, I was only asking about Hispanic on Hispanic crime because around where I live I see more and more MS-13 graffiti which leads me to believe there are more and more gang members in my area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong but it seems like when ever I read in the paper about an MS-13 crime it’s usually against another Hispanic. If the number of gang members is increasing then it would make sense that there are more crimes against Hispanics happening.
Plus I just wanted to get some hard proof from kgotthardt about her statement instead of hearsay. If the Chief did say that there are more crimes again Hispanics happening then when and where did he say this (where are the numbers to back it up) and are they being perpetrated by other Hispanics.
Sorry KG, I didn’t see your response before I had posted my comment at 11:11.
Thank you for your excellent summation Lucky Duck! It is also clear, based on the average person’s ability to factor in logic to the crime stats, that a resolution passed IN October 2007, would have no impact on crime statistics for 2007 anyway!
So then what’s the purpose of this whole thread – since the resolution passed in October 2007, as Elena says it couldn’t have had any impact on the crime stats. The thread makes it sound like the resolution caused the crime stats to go UP when the first sentence of this thread reads “Crime Statistics in Prince William County INCREASED for the second-half of 2007 after the passage of the “Immigration Resolution”, numbers were higher for the July thru December timeframe for: burglary, auto theft, larceny, assault, robbery and homicides.”
Just what is the point being made?
Observer,
The thread is countering Corey’s media blitz from last week that crime had gone down in the first half of 2007 due to his “get tough” stance on immigration. Now that the second half year statistics say crime rose slightly, how does he spin that?
Thanks for that insight and explanation, Lucky Duck.
I believe what these statistics do show is that the chairman of the BOCS speaks with forked tongue when he gets on national tv for 3 minutes at 6:45 in the morning and declares that THE RESOLUTION has caused crime to decrease.
The ethical bankruptcy shown by the Honorable Mr. Stewart’s statements sicken me.
junkyard dog, I would agree that Mr. Stewart’s statement is hard to prove statistically but you would be hard up to explain how detaining and/or deporting criminals doesn’t help with lowering crime in general. Just think about it for one second, if you detain and/or deport a criminal instead of releasing them directly back into the community it’s a positive thing, right? Or would you rather have criminals who are here illegally allowed to be released right back into your neighborhood?
Hello, per the FBI requirements, all police departments track Part One crimes by the number that occur, the victims and any suspects. All police department reporting forms will inquire into the victim’s and obviously any suspect’s race or ethnicity. So those numbers are available.
It would make sense that if your Hispanic popluation soared from single digits to approximately 20% of the population you would have more victims being Hispanic. So while more people of Hispanic ethnicity are victims of crimes, I attribute that to there simply being more Hispanic people living in the County. I wouldn’t say that Hispanics or any other ethnic group is being targeted at this point in time as crime victims.
Your question regarding Hispanic gangs. Yes, MS 13 is the largest gang in the county across ethnic lines. If you’re not Hispanic, you can’t join. Do these gangs target or operate in their own neighborhoods? For the most part, yes. That would account for their victims being mainly Hispanic.
TWINAD: If the statistics were compared for a similar time period, then some conclusion could be drawn. The fact they are being compared to dissimilar time periods, no conclusion can be drawn, as Lucky Duck pointed out.
Second, the resolution wasn’t even in passed until October, and there was no enforcement of it at all in 2007.
Again, what is the purpose of this thread?
Clearly, Stewart is FOS anyway, as he has been through this entire fiasco. Even if these numbers show NOTHING, it proves HIS interpretation sows NOTHING either. Again….coorelation, not causation. Either way, the numbers disprove his spin.
“Second, the resolution wasn’t even in passed until October, and there was no enforcement of it at all in 2007. ”
The BVBL crowd claims the exodus and benefits began as soon as the resolution was passed. According to them, we didn’t even need enforcement to start seeing improvement. The numbers don’t prove a thing. Their “evidence” is anecdotal and/or contrived.
So how about we compare the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2006? Why aren’t we doing that?
kgotthardt said “The BVBL crowd claims the exodus and benefits began as soon as the resolution was passed.”
And this blog makes the counterclaim that the crime statistics went up as soon as the resolution was passed.
So what’s your point? Two wrongs make a right? I guess that’s the point you are making.
The 287(g) program was operational before the resolution was passed, was it not? I don’t think anyone wants criminals in the neighborhood. Those of you who are trying to put that kind of spin on things are simply disingenuous.
Sorry to jump back in and offer a non sequitur, but I need some help. I was posting on BVBL, and the first time it went through. When someone replied to my post and asked me to cite my sources, I tried to. The post wouldn’t go through. I tried again under another name and email address, to no avail. What’s happening?
Forgive me, I am a novice at posting. Is it possible to be blocked that quickly? Would I receive some sort of notification or not?
Thanks:)
“And this blog makes the counterclaim that the crime statistics went up as soon as the resolution was passed. So what’s your point? Two wrongs make a right? I guess that’s the point you are making.”
My point is if, as Lucky says, there is no clear way to interpret these stats, if our interpretations don’t mean anything, then CS’s don’t either.
Therefore, these stats DO say something: either way, they refute arguments and spin put out by the other side.
Fine, then the beginning of this thread should be honest instead of saying “Crime Statistics in Prince William County INCREASED for the second-half of 2007 after the passage of the “Immigration Resolution”
Apparently, on this blog, two wrongs DO make a right!
Diversity Gal,
the only way you know if you are being blocked on BVBL is to view where you comments SHOULD be from a different computer.
To all who are wondering why the thread? It is BECAUSE Corey was out there last week, espousing that the resolution caused a decrease in crime. CLEARLY, that is a disingenous statement on multiple levels.
DiversityGal,
How much time between your first post and the second?
It sound like Greg has banned your ip address or your mac address. Any dissenting opinions get that treatment. I’ve been banned a thousand times. Post your email address and I’ll see if i can provide some technical support.
“Crime Statistics in Prince William County INCREASED for the second-half of 2007 after the passage of the “Immigration Resolution”
But that part is true. Interpretation is what we are now disputing.
I would expect that the blog master blocked you because he didn’t like what you said the first time. The polite word for it is…you got put in moderation. Just a guess. It is probably nothing you have control over.
Observer, Let’s take a somewhat contrapositive outlook on the statitics. Perhaps the author of the thread meant to show that crime has not dropped as the chairman likes to proport.
Again, you can’t compare the first half of 2007 to the second half of 2007. As Lucky Duck pointed out, there are seasonal crime factors. So this comparison is meaningless. So the statement “Perhaps the author of the thread meant to show that crime has not dropped as the chairman likes to proport.” means nothing, as the comparison of statistics being made is completely meaningless. Try comparing 2nd half of 2006 to 2nd half of 2007 – and if the crime is increased, then perhaps you may have a point to make.
Let’s face it, the political support of the Immigration Resolution was centered upon the fallacious believe that there is a direct relationship between skin color and tendency to commit crimes. It was cleverly transferred to documentation status, of course, but we all know what they meant by that. They couldn’t disguise it even for 3 minutes during their Citizens’ Time speeches. The authors of the Resolution, Mike Hethmon of F.A.I.R. and Robert Duecaster of Help Save Manassas, couldn’t disguise it for a moment, in fact, Hethmon was quite open about it.
Chairman Stewart’s media campaign on behalf of F.A.I.R. and Numbers USA is designed to foment political support for the Prince William County Anti-Immigrant Experiment to spread to other jurisdictions (you do realize that is what this is, don’t you?) OF COURSE the same talking points are going to be used, regardless of the facts. The facts were never part of their talking points anyway. The truth is that immigrants, both documented and undocumented, are less likely to commit crimes than the general public.
But… Perception Is Reality… right Greg Letiecq?
“These people” are more likely to commit crimes is the centerpiece of the Anti-Immigrant Lobby’s campaign, right next to “Mexicans kind of look like Middle Eastern people but Canadians usually don’t.”
Crime statistics CAN be spun in any way. The point of this thread is not make a case for the fact that the Immigration Resolution has made it more difficult to keep this county safe; the point of this thread is to obliterate the specious argument that it has made us more safe, propagated by our immoral and inane Chairman and the Anti-Immigrant Lobby.
The interests of our Chairman and the Anti-Immigrant Lobby are one. Their agenda has become his agenda. How did this happen?
Why would our Chairman of the Board of County Supervisors care more about the future of the Anti-Immigrant Lobby than he does about the future of this county? Why would he nurture and foster a reputation for intolerance and hateful conflict for the better part of a year? Why would he go on national television to celebrate the fact that we’ve frightened families, and caused children who speak English as a 2nd language to disappear from our schools? Why does he seem bored and irritated with the priorities that concern the other Board members, you know, our strategic plan, transportation, our public image, county services that CAN’T be denied to certain undesirables?
My only guess is that he doesn’t plan to run for office again in PWC, so his ACTUAL record on education, public safety, our economy, transportation, etc. will not be an obstacle to whatever ambitions he might retain after he watches Gerry Connolly take the Congressional seat he thought was his.
Our Constitution says you have been born in the USA to run for President. Maybe we should have a rule that you have to give a sh*t about this county to be its Chairman of the Board of County Supervisors.
kghotthardt said:
““Crime Statistics in Prince William County INCREASED for the second-half of 2007 after the passage of the “Immigration Resolution”
But that part is true. Interpretation is what we are now disputing.”
No, it isn’t the interpetation we are disputing. It is that you can’t compare the 1st half of a year to the 2nd half of the year. There can be no conclusion drawn from an invalid comparison.
Then again, statistics can be made to lie. This entire thread is proof of that, when an invalid comparison is done and then all sorts of conclusions are drawn from it.
“Catching illegal immigrants has made Prince William safer, said Corey A. Stewart (R-At-Large), chairman of the board of county supervisors said. Stewart also said the county’s policies have led to “a plummeting of the crime rate.” Police statistics show that the county’s crime rate has been declining since 2004, even as the population increased.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/09/AR2008070902173_2.html?sid=ST2008071000987&pos=
The reality is that Corey made the connection between the resolution/county policy to decrease in crime, and we are simply disputing the premise he has put out there as “fact”. Obsersever, you are missing the point. I hope this clarifies for you.
Actually, the quotes should be after the sentence “Police statistics show that the county’s crime rate has been declining since 2004, even as the population increased.” The original Washington Post article has no such quotes – but then it cleverly placed that sentence in a paragraph quoting Corey Stewart to try and make it sound to the casual reader that those words came out of his mouth. The Washington Post does this all the time when they quote people but the person doesn’t say exactly what they hoped he/she would.
Meant to say the quotes should NOT be after the sentence “Police statistics show that the county’s crime rate has been declining since 2004, even as the population increased.”
The Crime statistics do not prove the point that the BOCS Chairman was making nor do they validate the resolution as the reason that crime statistics went up after passage. The resolution didn’t pass until October 16th, 2007 and enforcement did not start until March, 2008. So the crime rates for 2007 are not valid arguments for either side.
Kgotthardt, the exodus of Hispanics did begin prior to the passage and enforcement of the resolution. It may not yet be demonstrated in hard population statistics, but ask the business owners that served primarily a Hispanic base such as Todos Market, El Portal and a host of others and they’ll tell you when business began falling off. The owner of Todos Market was quoted as saying his business fell off 20% at the end of 2007. The next school census will show us how far our Hispanic population has fallen and the drop began quickly in the fall of 2007.
Elena said “The reality is that Corey made the connection between the resolution/county policy to decrease in crime, and we are simply disputing the premise he has put out there as “fact”.”
But you are using invalid comparison of statistics to dispute it, so that means nothing. You can’t dispute something with an invalid comparision. No inference can be drawn from that comparison, one way or the other.
Actually, Lucky Duck just said what I was trying to say by saying “The Crime statistics do not prove the point that the BOCS Chairman was making nor do they validate the resolution as the reason that crime statistics went up after passage. ”
I agree.
Lucky Duck said “Kgotthardt, the exodus of Hispanics did begin prior to the passage and enforcement of the resolution.”
And that exodus may have been more due to economic factors than anything else.
Rod, love that quote: “If you build a community on hate, you willl hate the community you build.”
Did you make that up? I might want to use it somewhere.
=======================================
My father used that quote during the citizens time when there was a hearing for allowing the Day Labor site to be built in Herndon.
I’m not sure if he got it from someone else, but he gave me the impression that he came up with it.
I have to agree with An Observer and Lucky Duck on this one, both sides (Mr. Stewart and this site) are doing the same thing, using the statistics to validate a point which can’t be “proven”. Mr. Stewart used his spin to make a point and this site is using it’s own spin (I’m starting to get dizzy).
By the way, I have yet to see kgotthardt’s proof that crime against Hispanics has gone up.
An Oberserver, 14. July 2008, 12:44
Lucky Duck said “Kgotthardt, the exodus of Hispanics did begin prior to the passage and enforcement of the resolution.”
And that exodus may have been more due to economic factors than anything else.
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If that’s the case Observer why did you ever need a 4 million dollar resolution that is basically a redundant 287g? The County should have overcrowding, noise, refuse and parking legislation already in place, The Police with 287g would have been able to pass criminal illegal immigrants to ICE ( who’s own ability to keep to their promises is questionable at best).
All these things would have been the natural course of law and order, but Corey with the help of HSM has decided to milk the tax payers of PWC for a 4 million dollar self-promotion campaign.
And in the mean time it looks like the Immigrants were leaving the area anyway…
hello – probably the only really valid comparison would be comparing a time period after the resolution went in effect to the same time period before the resolution went into effect, and also comparing the ratio of crimes by hispanics against the total crimes. Otherwise, it is a fairly useless comparison.
Anyway, as you point out this site felt the need to spin to counteract Corey Stewart’s spin!
There’s also the old saying “statistics lie”. Basically, statistics can be made by either side to work in their favor, and this is an excellent case of that. Both sides are using meaningless statistical comparisons to support their arguments.
Rod said “If that’s the case Observer why did you ever need a 4 million dollar resolution that is basically a redundant 287g?”
Thanks for putting words in my mouth, Rod.