According to this chart from the George Mason Regional Analysis Center, Prince William County Foreclosure Rates are OFF THE CHART in comparison to surrounding jurisdictions. WTOP news is reporting Prince William property values have dropped more than double of Fairfax County and slightly more than double of Loudoun County.
FAIRFAX, Va. – Residential property value assessments are down for 95 percent of Fairfax County homes. The county Department of Tax Administration says residential property assessments in 2008 dropped on average 12.55 percent.
Other local residential property assessments that are down:
Loudoun County dropped 14.96 percent.
Alexandria dropped 4.75 percent.
Arlington dropped 2.1 percent.
Prince William County dropped an estimated 32 percent.
If Chairman Stewart wants to claim hundreds of ‘illegals’ have left our school system, and that the resolution is ‘working’ than he also should acknowledge the cost to our local real estate market because surely the undocumented population lived somewhere.
So are my comments on the other thread going to be taken out of moderation? There’s nothing I said there that was inaccurate or anything else. And “off the chart” once again implies a 10X or more increase over anything else, which the chart shows isn’t true. It was stated more than once in the other thread that PWC was “10X” more than any other jurisdiction. hello pointed out more legitimate reasons for it to be 3X greater than Fairfax.
I would like an honest answer why my comments were placed in moderation. I don’t think it is very fair, for a blog that says they do not censor anything. Or has the policy now changed? MH? I trust you for being honest – so hope you will answer me.
ok, here it is. we are more than double of Loudoun. And maybe 3, 3/12 times that of Fairfax. Regardless, you have to acknowledge there’s something different about Prince William. It’s probably a combination of things but there’s something unique.
32% is not “maybe 3, 3 1/2 times” 12.55% – the rate of PWC. It is 2.54x to be exact. Given it is an estimate, but to be 3 times that estimate would have to jump to 37.65%. That would mean the estimate would be off by 17.65% – which wouldn’t make it a very good estimate. I doubt it is off by that large of a percentage.
Hold on a second Alanna… it’s not ‘here it is’ at all. You were first trying to tie in foreclosure rates, those numbers didn’t add up to your ‘ten times worse’ statement and the numbers that were there could easily be due to other reasons which I pointed out. So is this the tactic now, shift from foreclosure rates to property assessments? Even if it is your ‘double’ statement is still way off of your original ’10 times’ statement, which is it?
I mean come on, really, just think about it for one second, if you have more foreclosures wouldn’t that lead to a bigger drop in property assessment? Come on, you can do better than that. I know your trying your best to associate the two but your really can’t put the blame where you want to with these numbers. Try again.
3X the number of foreclosures leads to 2.5X the drop in values – sounds about right to me – have to agree once again with hello (even though no one may ever see this comment since for reasons unknown as of now – I’ve been placed in moderation.
Also, the higher the percentage of foreclosures, the more the foreclosures “become the real estate market” – that is determine what any house will sell for – foreclosure or not. Any real estate agent will tell you that. In PWC unfortunatley foreclosures have basically become the market – so even a legitimate sale has to sell at a foreclosure price or the house will never get sold. This obviously is not true to the same extent in Fairfax County. Again, the statistics will lead to this conclusion – and it follows that those two sets of statistics are linked to each other – basically cause and effect (Cause=Foreclosures, Effect=Prices).
I was incorrect on both Loudoun & Fairfax, under on Loudoun over on Fairfax. Get over it. Property assessments and foreclosure rates are closely tied, these are two recent reports that I have chosen to share.
It’s funny how you never address whether or not you believe the resolution was effective or not.
In terms of the drops in assessments, I believe that there could be a fair amount of disputes that could lower actual assessments. I don’t know the relationship between the two but obviously they are related. By the way, some neighborhoods have experienced drops of 40% or more.
It is interesting how I saw my comments placed in moderation AFTER posting them on the other thread, right after Alanna posted. Now she is posting on this forum after I posted comments, and my comments still are not being taken out of moderation. What conclusion am I supposed to draw?
Alanna, it’s funny how you never asked me if I thought the resolution was effective or not. It’s extremely hard to tell if it worked or is working, I think we can all agree on that. I think in it’s original form it would be working more than it is today but that is besides the point. If you ask me, which you never have, I would have to tell the truth, I have no clue. There aren’t any solid numbers to tell either way. The number that have been given can be interpreted in several ways. How can you determine the effectiveness without any metrics to go by? What exactly are you trying to prove here anyway?
It’s odd that people would like to claim that the resolution has worked but yet not be willing to accept any responsibility for the corresponding drop in home markets.
Here is a question that I asked you that you never answered… so do you think that the resolution worked (which has always been denied here) and that it directly impacts the home markets? If so then how? Would it be illegal immigrant renters leaving or illegal immigrant home owners leaving or a combination of the two?
On one hand you say that the resolution is/was a failure but on the other hand you say that it worked and is the reason for our high foreclosure rate and poor property assessment. I’m confused as to what your trying to get across or prove here.
@hello
Of course the resolution makes all the difference here.
How do you exile 25% of your population and then be surprised that the housing market suffers.
It’s also important to note that our county was experiencing lots of growth due to influx of immigrants. Now all that growth has probably stopped. Which people of color would want to move here??? How many immigrants will move to ‘The Devil’s County’ as they call it.
So not only do we lose the people who are moving away. We also lose all of those people who decided not to come here due to the resolution and the county’s racist reputation.
I think that the resolution had an effect on some of the Hispanic population leaving and they began their exodus in August, September and October of 2007. Vacant homes popped up in these neighborhoods and this was just as the housing bubble was starting to pop but long before it was widespread. Why did they leave? I guess they felt the community sentiment was against them and in October of ’07, it was.
The second part of our housing bubble is based upon our affordable housing status. Prince William has traditionally been the least expensive of the “inner burbs” for people to own a house. These are the people with the highest risk of losing their house when the economy goes down as it did.
So I think it was a combination of these two factors that have hammered our County so much more than others. The downturn would have happened here regardless of the resolution, but the legal action did increase the damage.o
Of course the Immigration Resolution ‘worked’ if anyone is willing to admit that people left because they were scared. We are bandying about the term ‘worked.’ What exactly do we mean when we say ‘worked’? Do we mean rid the county of illegal immigrants? I don’t think that is a quantifiable question. How does one determine that who is legal, who is illegal, and who has left? That’s short of a shadows question.
Alanna has given us some facts and figures. It shows that Prince William was impacted harder by the housing crunch than any other jurisdiction in our area.
I am just waiting for those savings from all those ESOL kids to kick in and start saving out county money. I wonder what the numbers look like now.
And one last question…what does the big bad resolution do really other than keep elderly illegal immigrants off the blue bird trip bus.
Mackie, you said “How do you exile 25% of your population and then be surprised that the housing market suffers.”. Ill believe that if you can show me some credible stats to back it up. I would be willing to bet that you can’t, it’s just a number you picked out.
Again, so far this still breaks down to hearsay and personal opinion. Neither of which can be considered evidence. Show me some evidence.
There is, of course, no evidence that the Resolution caused foreclosures. Just y’all saying, “well, here it is” believe it! Nope, sorry.
Hi Moon, Alanna has provided facts and figures that PWC was impacted harder by the housing crunch but did not provide any EVIDENCE as to why, only her opinion as to why. I provided stats and figures as to why, none of which have to do with the typical scape goats most use here. IF someone can provide EVIDENCE to support their claim that the resolution, HSM, Corey Stewart, Greg L., a meteor, people from mars or any other reason I’m all ears.
Hello,
It’s anecdotal. Just like the silly quality of life issues that some people in older neighborhoods complained about. Guess they can now complain about their quality of life has declined because of all the rental units. And it will probably have very little to do with someone’s immigration status.
OK, now instead of my posts being in moderation they are gone, both in this thread and the other one. And again, I saw them being put in moderation one by one (happened to catch it while it was happening apparently) in the other thread. I thought there was no censorship on here, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. What is going on? All I did was point out some simple math in the other thread and that got me into moderation. I guess my sin was making true statements from reading a chart… You may want to fix hello’s comment in the other thread agreeing with me, since the comment of mine he agrees with is now gone.
anecdotal……translation:BS.
Do you want to know what is ‘unique’ about PWC Alanna? We have the least educated population of the VA counites in your graph buying the lowest priced houses (in 2008 per the study you copied this graph from). What does it add up to? Ill tell you, the perfect recipie and main reason for our foreclosure nightmare:
(education stats from the 2007 census, home prices from the George Mason Regional Analysis Center study you cherry picked)
Arlington: 60.2% w/bachelors degree or +, $539,300 avg ’08 price.
Alexandria: 60.2% w/bachelors degree or +, $539,300 avg ’08 price.
Faifax: 54.8% w/bachelors degree or +, $445,900 avg ’08 price.
Loudon: 47.2% w/bachelors degree or +, $380,000 avg ’08 price.
PWC: 31.5% w/bachelors degree or +, $257,900 avg ’08 price.
@hello
Case in Point….People who honestly believe the Resolution is the cause of PWC’s foreclosure and financial trouble.
Hi Slowpoke, unfortunately it’s not just the resolution and PWC’s foreclosures… it’s the resolution, Corey Stewart, Greg L., HSM and a host of other scape goats which have caused multiple issues which are at this point purely hearsay and opinion without much to back it up. After a while not only does it get old but it’s dishonest. In another thread ShellyB said that Obama needs to reiterate that he inherited the economy because most right wingers get their news from Fox News and such. I think the same goes for this site. Enough is enough… Say what you mean an prove what you say, take some responsibility.
Hi GainsvilleResident, you may be onto something, I don’t see your posts either which is odd. This site is usually pretty good about letting everyone voice their opinion (take me for instance), I’m not sure why your posts are gone but I’m sure the admin(s) will resolve it soon.
@Slowpoke Rodriguez
There is no actual data for the impact that illegal immigration caused in PWC. There will be studies done in the future and at that point we will know what positive or negative effect the resolution had. If 25% of the population left the county there has to be an impact on the economy. It is not possible that the resolution did not have an effect in a single foreclosure or an impact on business. The biggest problem that the resolution has caused is the division between the Hispanic community and the way they perceive the people that have used this resolution to insult, exclude and discredited the Latino community. You can talk to the Latino business leaders in PWC and they don’t have a problem with the resolution. They have a problem with the way the resolution was and is being handled and the way that the resolution was introduced into the county. Time will tell, the future reelection of the Supervisors will tell us how well the community has healed or if will continue to be divided. The board of Supervisors is responsible for the economic future of the county. I know that they do not have a clue how to attract any new businesses to the county or how they will improve the housing market.
Slowpoke Rodriguez Patuso, don’t forget to change your name. Your second last name should be “pastuso.”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-02-24-bigloans_N.htm
If people look at this map (you have the little thingy on the bottom of the map to drag to go to 2007), you will see that northern VA was one of the worst places in the US for people getting mortgages that were more than 4 times their annual income. I remember that the old rule of thumb was 2 1/2 times.
Perhaps PW county was even worse than the other counties nearby and therefore have more foreclosures and it perhaps has not much to do with the resolution? I don’t know anything for a fact but it may be a more important reason.
I’ve read these posts…and I really do honestly…with my whole heart believe …that you are all (including my husband) wasting your breathe and your time on this website.
I think Prince William County is 348 sq. miles within the confines of Northern Virginia that is a “transitional county”. both white collar and blue collar workers occupy most of the county and it is appealing to most middle class citizens in the area because let’s just face it…not everyone cares to live in a high rise condo in Arlington. They want a house with a yard and some space and don’t mind the commute.
With that being said, I think it’s safe to say that the immigration resolution is not the reason for PWC being hit so drastically by the economic crisis or the housing market deteriorating to shit.
It’s all about location, location, location. And Prince William County is a big county in the perfect location with the correct ingredients that would be affected most by this.
Oh, and by the way…I’m not white.
I am going to go out on a limb here and remind everyone that the lack of any evidence but anecdotal was Linda Chavez’s objection to the Immigration Resolution in the first place. She said that there was no empirical evidence to support the information the Resolution was based on. And she is right.
We know that Pr. Wm. has been harder hit than any surrounding area. We have evidence. Count the number of foreclosures. Do the percent of decrease on home values. Math. The why is a matter of opinion.
I keep asking, what is in that Resolution now that ‘cracks’ down on illegal immigrants? No one will tell me. The entire intent, in my OPINION, was to frighten people away who might be out of status. I am not so sure I want to live in a sundown city.
Thank you Alanna.
And M-H, that’s a great point. There is ten tons MORE evidence that the Immigration Resolution has HURT this county, than there was evidence to justify the Resolution in the first place.
Perhaps someone can explain this to me, because I always wondered. How is it that the Chairman can force a vote on something for which there has been zero research on the possible impact, and not even a budget for how much it is going to cost? Can’t anyone put on the brakes in that situation and say, whoa, maybe now is not the best time for shooting ourselves in the both feet and bleeding to death?
@Conservador
You know, Conservador, I think you have just hit the nail on the head. It isn’t what the Resolution said, it was how it was said and the manner in which it was enacted. The tone and the intent from some of the citizens and from some of the supervisors said it all. And most of us read between the lines.
One thing I do know is that legal or not Hispanics have left PWC in droves. Their numbers are so low that Fernandez had to import a hand full to even get any notice to his ‘march’ to the court house. Had nothing been done it would have looked like the MWB photo of the Admin building back during the Resolution debate only double the number. Route 1 in Woodbridge would now be bumper to bumper taco trucks. Remember all the fuss over all the taco trucks in parking lots? How soon we forget!
@hellos Wife
Welcome, Hello’s wife. We discuss many things on this blog other than immigration. If we are wasting our time and breath with all of it….well, I guess it keeps us off the streets. Many of us have made some good friends: cyber friends and in some cases, real life friends. I hope you will join us.
Second-Alamo, you know, I see Hispanics every day. I don’t know that I would use the word ‘droves.’ How come the school census doesn’t seem to indicate this?
I am going to suggest that perhaps families stayed and many single men moved on when the jobs dried up. Just an opinion. If that is the case, then it was simply a matter of economics.
What taco trucks in what parking lot? Refresh my memory please.
Very interesting. Second Alamo wanting to take credit. And, HellosWife saying it’s about location. Hmm. How’s PWC different than Loudoun then?
While I believe that the resolution did force out some of the Hispanic population and the downturn in the economy only made the situation worse, I don’t believe the resolution is the sole reason for our foreclosure problem. As it was pointed out above, we were the “entry” County for first time homebuyers, the most likely group to lose their homes.
By the way, NO demographics of population will show that Hispanics were 25% of our County population. The highest I ever saw was 19%.
MH,
The parking lots on the right going South on Rt.1 after you pass over the bridge coming from 95. They were on the news back then also. Remember the issue about licenses and such?
Maybe I repressed it, SA. I honestly don’t remember people complaining about that. There is much to complain about over there I might have just lost track. Thanks for filling me in though.
The foreclosure problem has been as bad in the Sugarland Run part
of Loudoun County as any area with the same demographics in PWC.
Compare the neighborhoods — PWC just has more moderate housing
stock that drew more immigrants and, after the economic bust,
lost more immigrants. The PWC “resolution” ,that both BVBL and antBVBL
focus on, played,at best,a fairly small part.
(Interesting to note, the Hispanic student population is UP
in Manassas City Schools this year. Guess not everyone fled.)
I see I’m still in moderation but one post of mine made it through. Very strange. All my posts on the other thread are still deleted. I guess you need to tell people that posts are censored, even when all they do is state simple statistics derived from a chart YOU posted. Maybe I need to change my id to CenseoredByAntiBVBL.
@Alanna
Does somebody really need to explain all those variables to you?
I see what is happening. I didn’t realize it but I have a space in between the words in my id here at work and not at home. I didn’t realize I was running with two different userids. That being said, the id here in work is still in moderation. WHY IS THIS??? I don’t see what I did to deserve this, and think the only reason is because Alanna did not agree with what I said in the other thread yesterday. It is clear she is the one who placed me in moderation. I guess since she is the owner of the blog that is her right. But then if she continues to advertise there is no censorship on this blog that makes her a liar. It is a pretty blaack and white issue as far as that goes. Either you censor or you don’t. I guess I’m wasting my time on here as it is only a matter of time before she puts my home userid (the one with the space in it that is more easily readable with the new format) in moderation.
I think I’ll change my userid to SingledOutByAntiBVBL or DisagreedWithAndCensoredByAntiBVBL.
MH – it is uncharacteristic of you to be quiet on this. Do you agree with the decision to censor my posts?
Hello’s wife is right – we are wasting our breath here – if to disagree with the owner of the blog on simple math statistics is a cause to be censored. That’s all I did. So yes, we are wasting our breath here – sorry MH – I have to disagree with your post to hello’s wife. She is right.
One of the big constant themes of this blog is how it is different from the dark screen because it doesn’t censor. I guess this says that it is becoming more and more like the dark screen where it does selectively censor people who the owner of the blog disagrees with. And I really thought Elana’s unprovoked (as far as I could tell) personal attack on Michael last week was just in line with how this blog claims to be different than the dark screen… The word hypocrite comes to mind.
Gainesville Resident,
I have proof that you are the person who made the comment about ‘exterminating members of HSM’. How convenient that the comment was ‘immediately captured’ and posted on the other blog.
Consider yourself permanently banned.
Slowpoke,
For the umpteenth time, I’m not saying this is the only reason. What I am consistently saying is that if you think the resolution worked and ‘illegals’ ie Hispanics left, abandoning their homes, then part of the real estate debacle can be directly attributed to that fact. Got it?
Your proof is wrong and you know it. You know you blocked my IP address way before that, and then someone impersonated me and made that remark. You are just using this as an excuse, which you cooked up yesterday because you didn’t like what I was posting. Strange, I was posting here for a good month or two before this happened, and MH knows this. You just surface your “proof” when it is convenient for you – up until now my posts apparently didn’t anger you the way the ones I made yesterday did. You can mask it as you like – it is still CENSORSHIP and you are just inventing all kinds of reasons.
And also it is interesting you refused to reply to me until this morning – apparently it took you overnight to come up with a reason or excuse to “permanently ban me”. Such is your right – but at least be honest about it, which you are definitely not. You know and I know that I did not make the post you are talking about, and now you are putting up false accusations (this is not the first) about people you disagree with. Someone ought to take you to court for slander.