Chairman Stewart wants to claim crime statistics have decreased since the passage of the resolution. Maybe he should check the numbers. In fact, what we had was a decreasing crime rate during the time period where Stewart claims an influx of illegals. And well now… 2008 rates show increased burglary, auto theft, larceny etc… Maybe he should rethink his line of argument?

Personally, it seems related more to the economy than anyone’s immigration status. Remember, murders and rapes supposedly are non-trendable anyways so we should not make any assumptions based on those numbers.

The yellow highlighted row is mine. It’s a year-to-date calculation, whereby we can compare 2007 numbers to 2008 running totals.

Statistics come from the Prince William County Police Department’s website. As of today, there are no reports available for fourth quarter of 2008.

Note: Based on the explanation given to me by Officer Chinn of the PWC, negative numbers in the Rape statisitics are used to offset a previously reported case. I presume an example would be someone who recants their account.

69 Thoughts to “Prince William County Crime Stats After Passage of Resolution”

  1. Second-Alamo

    Ok, fair enough, but what isn’t indicated is the percentage of each type crime that was committed by an illegal immigrant. There is no way of knowing if the criminal element in the illegal immigrant population left town due to the resolution. It was perhaps the family oriented ones that needed jobs or couldn’t afford their house that left, and the criminals stuck around. In that case the crime rate would be little affected.

  2. Alanna

    SecondAlamo,
    If that’s the case then the Immigration Resolution was a complete and utter failure. Regardless, Chairman Stewart’s misrepresentation is pretty obvious.

  3. Second-Alamo

    BTW, what is that yellow column that is cut off? It looks like a multiplier value or something.

  4. Second-Alamo

    Where’s Oct, Nov, and Dec?

  5. GainesvilleResident

    Does look like something got cut off. Is there anyway to reformat that to fit better? Or if it is some spreadsheet that can be added as a file that we can download – put the file up and a link to where we can download it and see it in Excel or something?

  6. GainesvilleResident

    Also, how come there were -2 rapes in August 2008? What exactly is a “negative rape”?

  7. Second-Alamo

    Maybe a woman attacked a man?

  8. GainesvilleResident

    Good one SA! Then again, if that happened in other months it would subtract from the positive number. Who knows, but shows there may be some inaccuracies in the data – probably the only conclusion we can draw.

  9. GainesvilleResident

    As to increases in crime in 2008, this trend is not unexpected given the economy. Several articles I’ve seen said crime generally goes up in bad economic times.

  10. Moon-howler

    I would think you all would not call woman raping man negative. Sorry SA, I could not resist that one.

    That chart does need realignment. I am not going to touch it. I know what will happen. Alanna will work on it when she gets back home.

    I have enough trouble with uploading any type of picture. Something about my firewall settings. I can never use IE. I have to take whatever it is, on a flash drive, to a different computer and use foxfire to get it to upload. Does anyone know a way around going to all that trouble?

  11. Moon-howler

    We have had a whole slew of urban type crimes in the past 6 months or so here in Prince William County. That is one reason the $1.19 budget seems to be a dangerous move. We need to be adding more cops, not cutting back.

  12. Second-Alamo

    MH,

    Buy a Mac!

  13. Moon-howler

    Did that once, long ago. I couldn’t keep my bad hands out of it. I tried to add memory and fried the motherboard. The replacement motherboard cost almost as much as a new PC. I went PC and have never looked back. That was back in the day when 90% of the software was made for PC and 90% of the user information/help etc was the same.

    Plus, it would be difficult for me to own a fleet of macs. Right now I will just hang on to the apple stock I own (that is worth half what it was worth last summer which probably is a pretty good thing–most is less)

  14. If you want to speculate in the stock market, you may want to look at gold mining stocks. Since Oct-Nov many of them have doubled or more in value. I think tech stocks will be down for a long time to come.

  15. Moon-howler

    Give an example of a gold mining stock. I have 2 etfs. xme is one. Can’t remember the other. I don’t have enough to make up for some major losses though. and xme has lost alot. Not sure why. I think it is a mix of precious metals. I don’t even want to think about it actually. shudder.
    Afraid I agree about the tech stocks. Not sure about oil ones. I ditched banking a while ago. I have 2 card ones though. One of them is kicking my ass.

  16. GainesvilleResident

    Might be right about the gold mining stocks. I should look into them. I haven’t had a lot of success lately in the stock market though, but there has to be some bargains out there right now. The only thing i’ve done well with lately is LINE (Linn Energy) – and it also pays a very good dividend.

  17. “In fact, what we had was a decreasing crime rate during the time period where Stewart claims an influx of illegals and well now… 2008 rates show increased burglary, auto theft, larceny and homicide.”

    I don’t understand that analysis at all, Alanna. You’ve got months missing, totals, and it’s impossible to determine a trend with only a few years (only two in homicide). I did, however, particularly note an overall reduction in crime, in most categories, in the early months of 2007 (when the “Resolution” took affect which once again began to increase as it was made clear to the illegal community that their supporters were going to make sure that it was ineffective, as was the Chief of Police. No surprise there.

    It would be helpful if you could provide a link to the complete report you are citing here so that we might provide our own analysis of data.

  18. Actually, there is also the matter of where and from whom this report originated. I noted a “-1” in the rape category (presumably a rape reported and charges withdrawn, but no way to tell), which is rather odd. That would certainly be helpful as well.

  19. Alanna

    AWCheney,
    The words immigration resolution were first uttered in May/June of 2007, it passed in an initial version or form in July of 2007 then again in October 2007 with the effective date being March 1, 2008. This timeline is very important and Chairman Stewart tries to twist it to conform to whatever his ‘spin’ for the day is. To clarify, claims of a reduction in crime stats during the first half of 2007 are a byproduct of a resolution that hadn’t even been mentioned until half way through the year are suspect.

    The statistics come from the police department themselves, I updated the thread to note this. Also, I have attempted to clean up the charts to make them more readable. Hopefully they are an approvement. Again, according to the police department rapes and murders are non-trendable so attempts to draw any conclusions based on those figures would not be reliable anyways.

  20. If there were a negative number under “robbery,” would that mean they returned the money?

  21. JustinT

    I think everyone knows that crime rates was going down in Prince William County for years prior to the Resolution coming along, and Alanna is correct that these were the same years when the immigrant community was increasing so quickly, especially Latinos.

    It always bothered me about Letiecq, Stewart, and others claiming that Latino immigrants are somehow more likely to commit crimes than other people, and that was when I thought it might be true.

    But now we see the truth of the matter: that only 1.6 percent of the crime in the county is committed by unauthorized immigrants, and that the crime rates go down when a lot of Latinos move here and go up when a lot of them leave.

    So, it makes me even more angry that Letiecq and Stewart, and let’s not forget Stirrup, were always going around saying that. It’s like when the newspaper gets something wrong, they always make a correction in very small print. I’m sure we won’t be hearing an apology from any of these men. It just sounds really racist to try to pin “crime” on one group of people, especially when it isn’t even true. This really angers me.

  22. Moon-howler

    I believe..operative word being BELIEVE that Alanna got the stats from the police dept website. I tried to go there earlier in the day and I couldn’t log on to the county website anywhere. I will check again.

    Murder and rape are not trendable, I have been told. Most other crimes are. Better minds than mine can explain that one.

  23. Moon-howler

    Here you all go. Here is the place to start looking at your own info.

    One of the things we were warned about is comparing same time of year to same time of year. Certain crimes might be crimes committed in the summer, or around the holidays.

    http://www.pwcgov.org/default.aspx?topic=040074000390004611

  24. Moon-howler

    I can see Alanna is home.

  25. Elena

    Lest we forget, the final resolution was not passed until October of 2007! How can Corey claim crime was decreasing in the 2007 due to the resolution when, in fact, it had not be implemented. furthermore, the Chief gave a comprehensive overview which demonstrated crime was DECREASING, steadily, since 2004. It NEVER decreased in one year by almost 20% as Corey has said on more than one occasion. It is only AFTER the resolution that crime has begun to increase. Now, who wants to tackle that one?

  26. ShellyB

    I have a guess, Elena, about why crime is going up. Someone already mentioned the economic slowdown. We had the Immigration Resolution dragging down our economy, and then we had the national recession on top of that.

    And, increase occurred just when the police force was distracted by the immigration thing. Every hour they spent dealing with immigration status is time that got taken away from the various crimes listed on that chart. Also, the training, and then the retraining, and also all the controversy. We had the Police Chief and senior staff consumed for almost a year with trying to dig the BOCS out of the hole they’d dug.

  27. ShellyB

    The thing is, what is true and what is Corey Stewart spin has never mattered in the immigration fight. All that matters is how talks the loudest. And that will always be Corey Stewart, because Chief Deane is too polite of a man to say when the Corey is lying.

    And, Corey gets himself on the news all the time. The Chief is not on the news as much.

  28. Elena

    WHWN,
    I wish SOMEONE is a position of leadership would correct Corey though. The longer the misinformation stand unchallenged, the more like this “urban myth” will suddenly become a false “truth”.

  29. NotCoreyStewart

    As for these ‘statistics’… they mean absolutely nothing. Just imagine how much worse things would have been if all those other brown people had stayed here. The good news is they’re gone and we have lower numbers than we would have had. So the crackdown is working exactly as planned and other localities should follow suit.

    Please be sure to tune into Comcast Channel 23 or Verizon FIOS Channel 37.

  30. ShellyB

    NCS, welcome to the sane blog. But things are not always so sane. So, while I’m PRETTY SURE you are making fun of certain paranoid hysterics people, I am not going to assume anything just yet.

    But just in case you are for real, I know very well that statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt. We are only doing this to prove that Corey Stewart uses statistics to lie, and/or lies about statistics on a regular basis. We are so sick of it we don’t know what else to do to undo the damage he does to the county’s reputation, and the insult he does to minorities.

  31. Moon-howler

    NCS, those are rather repugnant words. They are perhaps better used on other blogs. We discourage those types of prejudicial statements.

    Having said that, those ‘statistics’ are part of the crime report that ends up with the FBI. Scoff at them all you want. It is raw data. It proves that your name-sake…opps forgot about that ‘not’ for a minute, speaks with forked tongue.

  32. Cory-Defender

    Moon-howler,
    Cory’s really a cosmopolitan guy and not the racist that he portrays on radio & tv. It’s just his tough guy persona but it’s not who he really is.

  33. Moon-howler

    @Cory-Defender

    I actually don’t think Corey is a racist. I am rather careful who I call racist. In fact, I can think of several examples where I might even say people say racist things but aren’t actually racist.

    I believe Corey is opportunistic. Big difference.
    It actually is reassuring to see that we have a Corey fan club here.

  34. Second-Alamo

    Any prison population statistics out there? If Latinos aren’t more likely to commit crimes, then why are they over represented in the prison population? That’s not coincidence, that’s a factor. Explain that one!

  35. Wasn’t GainesvilleResident banned?

  36. ShellyB

    “NotCoreyStewart” is a parody. “Second Alamo” is for real. But can you tell the difference? Alamo, this is a sign you are losing your grip. Remember when it was important to pretend there was no such thing as racism?

  37. ShellyB

    Corey Stewart may not be a racist. But he sold the county on a disastrous policy without any evidence to justify it. All he gave us was fear.

    Anger, hysteria, and phobias that he and his partner Greg Letiecq had deliberately sewed into the minds of mostly our elderly residents, using propaganda that played into their fears of minorities. I don’t know the word for that. Opportunist? But it surely is mean-spirited. It’s not fun to be terrorized.

    And it’s not fun to have the leader of the county scream “get out!” at you and your family. Thousands of children in Prince William County think of Corey Stewart as “the angry man who wants us to leave.”

    But racism or no racism, you just can’t make county policy based on hearsay. People wrote him an email saying I have neighbors who are illegal? Did they check their papers? No. They relied on skin color and/or language usage to tell them that. This is no way spend $14,000,000 (or $29,000,000) or whatever it’s turning out to be. This is no way to transform the future of this county.

  38. Anti-tail

    Maybe cynic needs to stop spying and carrying tales. Shame on Cynic. Girlie tattlin’. At least get the facts straight before you run to papa to tattle on the bad antis.

  39. Elena

    SA,
    There is also a disporportionate number of African Amercian men in jail, are you suggesting there is something inherently criminal about african amercian men? Poverty is the one commonality with crime statistics, not religion, race, or culture!

    Furthermore, to NotCoreyStewart, I too am offended by your comment about “brown people”. Those types of comments have no place here on anti.

  40. Second-Alamo

    Good God, I can’t even state simple facts without being called a racist? Come on, show another chart where the percentage of people in prison is proportional to their percentage in the US population, and you’ve won your argument. Get off the racist rant and discuss facts! Of course to avoid the facts you can always pull the race card. It used to work all the time, but it’s losing its power, as it’s been pulled far too often. BTW, if the shoe fits, wear it! Who here is willing to discuss prison populations without making themselves look foolish?

  41. Second-Alamo

    I love the argument about not knowing who is legal or illegal. The statement is always brought up, but if someone suggests an identity method, then suddenly it’s a blow to civil rights. You only win by keeping the ‘undocumented ones’ undocumented. Any effort to ascertain their legal presence is always thwarted, and hence the defense continues. I’ve got all kinds of documents to say who I am, and I was born in this country, yet heaven forbid we require a minimum amount of documentation from those entering our country! The only time we find out for sure that the individual is an illegal is after they have committed a crime. Way too late! Put THAT in your Civil Rights pipe and smoke it.

  42. ShellyB

    Alamo, you are so blind to your own words, it’s truly remarkable. Elena isn’t calling you a racist, she is challenging you to consider the pitfalls of making policy based on the perception, real or imagined, that darker skinned people are more likely to commit crimes.

    Her point is that even if it is true that “prison populations” might have certain ethnic breakdowns, you just can’t take a generalization and have police use it to profile those of us who are not in prison. Most people with dark skin are not criminals, so it just isn’t fair to instruct the police to look at them differently than the rest of this.

    Put that in your hopelessly myopic and hysterical pipe and smoke it.

  43. Second-Alamo

    ShellyB,

    The intent of this thread was to disprove that crime rates and illegal immigrants go hand in hand. I’m simply showing a high correlation based on those who have been convicted of a crime, and their ethnic background. The vast majority of illegal aliens are Latino, because of the ease with which they can enter the country illegally. So what conclusion (I’m sure in support of illegals) would you draw after considering the demographics of the current prison population? BTW, knock off the personal attacks, it just makes you look desperate.

  44. Second-Alamo

    I missed this one, but who says the police were instructed to profile Latinos? That is a charge that one can’t prove otherwise the ACLU would now have a headquarters located in Manassas or Woodbridge.

  45. Alanna

    SA,
    In the federal system, the majority are there for immigration infractions. That’s one thing that throws the numbers in a particular direction.

  46. ShellyB

    Alamo, I’m sorry, but it takes a small mind not to understand the difference between crime and immigration status. It takes a small mind that has been manipulated and frightened to the point of paranoia. All of your statistics are meant to frighten people and frighten yourself into making bad decisions. No one is listening though, other than your own little vacuum.

    Even at the Rush Limbaugh convention, everyone agreed immigration scapegoating is killing the Republican party. No one wants it anymore, Alamo. Find something else to freak out about.

  47. Alanna

    ShellyB, Where did you read that news story about the Republicans not wanting to pursue the ‘immigration issue’?

  48. LarrytheCableGuy

    Did anybody else notice Limbaugh constantly touching his nose at CPAC? Are we sure he’s off the oxycontin? or is he now on something else?

  49. Moon-howler

    For Second Alamo:

    From the Hoover Institute:

    Race and Ethnicity At the end of 2006, the prison population was 42 percent black, 40 percent white, and 16 percent Hispanic.

    Although there were more black males than white or Hispanic males in prison, there were more white females than black or Hispanics females in prison. White females made up 48 percent of the prison population.

    • Nativity: The 91,426 noncitizen prisoners constituted 6 percent of the prison population. The proportion of noncitizen prisoners has not changed much over the past few years.

    http://www.hoover.org/research/factsonpolicy/facts/16615876.html

    Is it correct, I have no clue.

  50. Second-Alamo

    Time to close, but someone please make sure ShellyB takes her sedative before she hurts herself. Try decaf for a change!

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