update: Here is Sunday’s PW Extra, it basically mirrors what Anti has been saying.
The Prince William County Police Department released their Annual Crime Statistics Report for 2008; it shows that for the first time in 5 years the overall crime rate has increased. The above chart perhaps demonstrates it best; it shows increasing population from 2004 through the present with a decreasing crime rate UNTIL 2007, after which where the crime rate actually INCREASES. The notion that we were experiencing a crime wave due to an “invasion of illegals” is clearly dispelled by the graph.
The crime rate, which is a percentage of the total number of crimes per population, in Prince William County had been consistently decreasing over the past 4 years even during the time period that our immigrant population was increasing. Prince William’s overall crime rate — the number of crimes per 1,000 residents — dropped from 24.5 to 22.8 in 2005, from 22.8 to 21.6 in 2006, from 21.6 to 19.8 in 2007, then in 2008 we experience a 3% increase with an overall crime rate of 20.1.
Of note, the main drop in violent crimes did not originate with a drop in rapes or murders but rather ‘Aggravated Assaults’. The drop in this particularly category alone was 36.5%. On page 5 of the report, it states that it is possible that some of the reduction in reported crime may be due to a lower reporting rate among minority groups.
Chairman Stewart suggests this decrease in violent crimes is attibutable to the County’s implementation of the “Immigration Resolution” when in fact the reason for the drop of Aggravated Assaults is unknown. Stewart’s assertion that the ‘crackdown’ is working because of a drop in one particular area is patently ABSURD. Why wouldn’t we see drops in other areas as well? Why are the decreases mainly seen just in this one classification? Could it be that domestic violence issues are now going unreported?
Other facts contained within the report include:
- violent crime represents a small portion of the total crime in the County, with crimes against property accounting for the bulk of the total crime.
- most frequently committed crime by ‘illegal’ aliens – driving without a drivers’ license.
- Crimes Against Persons rates have dropped due to lower numbers of ‘Aggravated Assault’
- the number of murders increased by 20% with 0% being committed by ‘illegal’ aliens
- the number of rapes remained the same with 4% being committed by ‘illegal’ aliens
- 3% of the total persons arrested are illegal aliens
- 86.9% of illegal aliens arrested were for misdeamenor or traffic charges
Great reporting Alanna. So, basically, our invasion of “illegals” that were “pillaging the countryside” was a propoganda blitz. Rick Bentley, in a previous thread, said something very interesting. He would have been satisfied had neighborhood services done its job, had they been properly funded to handle the complaints, this issue would never have reached this level.
A part of me is angry for this wasted money and resulting community division, however, on another level, I almost want to thank Corey, John, Greg, Robert Duecaster, et al for creating the circumstances for such an a comprehensive crime report. Now, we can finallly put to the rest, the lies and misinformation, about the “supposed” crime wave in PWC.
Speaking of the previous thread, check out the butt-kicking Greg of Gospel receives from WHWN and Michael re. crime stats manipulations.
Watch the Corey and Greg “spin machine” go around and around.
“He would have been satisfied had neighborhood services done its job, had they been properly funded to handle the complaints, this issue would never have reached this level. ”
That’s not quite what I said. I don’t dount that the ACLU and the Bush Administration – which sued the City of Manassas – would never have allowed such a thing to happen. So I believe that the problem was attacked in the one way that the elitists and activists who run our government couldn’t undermine – by arresting and deporting illegal immigrants.
It’s not just a question of beefing up Neighborhood Services. This goes well beyond that. Our government and both parties are in collusion against effective law enforcement of any kind that discourages the influx of illegal immigrants.
We live in an America where if illegal immigrants enter your property and squat on your land, and you detain them at gunpoint, they can sue you for inconvenience and the US Government will take their side.
We live in an America where a US Attorney in Texas will offer immunity to a known drug runner for the sake of prosecuting two border control agents to tyhe maximum potential, because he wanted to placate the drug gangs.
We live in a sick nation and when your own neighborhood sdtarts turning into a ghetto it really hits home to you.
Alanna, thanks for breaking this down for us.
I know that Greg Letiecq is doing his usual thing but I really, really hope we don’t hear Corey Stewart come out sounding like Greg in next several days. I was just beginning to think i could tell the two apart!
Stewart has shown signs of coming back to the middle, or at least wanting to. Lt’s hope he takes that step by not parroting Greg Leteicq, and does not disgrace the county any further on this issue.
Sorry, to tell you JustinT, but he already has. There’s a news report in the News & Journal about ‘Violent Crime being Down 22%’. Ay vay.
Alanna, your analysis is on point as usual, and hits home the political implications of this revelation. I wanted to re-post my own analysis for fear it would be missed on the previous thread:
Although it overlaps with Alanna’s analysis, here is my theory as to why the City of Manassas has not suffered the same rise in crime, and, whey we have 36.5% less reported instances of aggravated assault despite our overall rise in crime:
Finally, a jab at Federation For American Immigration Repeal, which as most of us know, cut and pasted the Immigration Resolution for Supervisor John Stirrup, with the aid of one Robert Duecaster:
That’s really discouraging news Alanna. Who is the puppet and who is the puppeteer, indeed. And who are we as residents of PWC if Greg Letiecq is STILL Corey Stewart’s puppeteer? I guess we will look like the arm pit of Virginia until both of these guys carpetbag elsewhere.
Observation: Based on apparently the same report –
BVBL begins “Violent Crimes Plunge In Prince William County”
Antibvbl counters “Prince William County Crime Rate Increases”
Darn, ever think you are reading the blog version of Fox vs. MSNBC?
I think WHWN, what is the most discouraging, is that NO ONE in a leadership role, i.e. another supervisor, is willing to publicy reject Corey’s errouneous analysis. What they don’t realize, is as much as they want to just put the “unpleasantness” of the resolution behind us, there are other entities, like FAIR, propogating the lies that if you get rid the of the “illegal” i.e. latino’s, you will have a safer and better community. When, when will a leader emerge to dispell these myths?
spell check….erroneous !
Poor Richard,
I just urge everyone to read the report for themselves. We haven’t twisted words. The overall crime rate has increased. Aggravated Assault HAS plunged….but why? Read the comments contained within the police report, you should make your own judgements 🙂
WHWN does not give the entire facts however, so I guess I have to re-post and supplement to help you understand the entire picture is that some crime goes up, some goes down. The issue is what percentage of crime is increased by “illegals” and would not happen to ANY victims if they were not here and instead deported.
Here’s the actual numbers: (Chief Dean rounded down and introduced additional error and misrepresentation in his calculations, and left out 2 months of “illegal data” rather than correct for it).
Rape (5.21%) 1% greater than the average “non-illegal”
Larceny (6%) 2.1% greater than the average “non-illegal”
Total Part 1 Crime (4.19%) 0.27% greater than the average “non-illegal”
Fraud (12.58%) 8.66% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
Prostitution (25.71%) 21.79% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
Sale opium/cocaine (10.0%) 6.08% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
Public Drunkeness (11.25% 7.33% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
DUI (6.05%) 2.13% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
Total (minor offenses) (5.20%) 1.28% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
Driving without license (17.1%) 13.18% greater than the average “non-illegal”.
And we don’t even have numbers for the other offenses that “illegal” immigrants commit disproportionately more than the rest of the population that really pee’s everyone in the commiunity off:
Zoning violations
Overcrowded houses
Trash in the street and yards
Commercial vehicles parked everywhere
Stealing of electricity
Mortgage fraud (that started our global economic crisis)
etc, etc, etc.
Elena is not correct in her statement. According to the crime statistics, our communities would be 4% safer from violent crimes if ALL of the arrested “illegals” were not here. I call 4% a problem, especially if I end up as even one of the 63 victims.
Michael, You are incorrect. There’s no greater propensity for an undocumented person to commit a crime than any other individual so given the same population, thus the crime rate would be the same based on population.
Elena is not correct. Even Chief Dean would not refute we would have 4% less violent criminals and 4% less violent crime if we had previously deported or not let in the country the 63 “illegal” immigrants who committed crimes against 63 innocents.
These are facts, everything else than these facts presented is speculation, belief and theory (most of it WRONG).
The real answer as to why criminals commit crime is found in their “indivudal” behaviors and usually in their upbringing. This changes from year to year as the population of “individuals” changes and the degree of law enforcement focus changes.
If it’s about “individuals” why try to focus on particular minorities who commit less crime than the average citizen? As many have pointed out before me, if there is less than 4% of the population in PWC committing a full 4% of the crime, then YES, you can say they commit more crime. But in that case you’d have to admit that the “invasion” that Letiecq and Duecaster tried to sell us was ONE BIG LIE.
Either they’re here in small numbers and they commit about the same amount of crime. Or they’re here in the large numbers and commit a heck of a lot less. Where is the justification to devote millions and millions of tax payer dollars (whether it’s 30 million or 14 million I’m still confused) to a very small fraction of the crime committed in this county????
The only people who gained anything would be people who are uncomfortable around recent immigrants and comfortable paying more taxes for less safety and seeing their property values plummet compared to the rest of the region. I doubt very many people would have signed up for that if they had known what Letiecq, Duecaster, and Stewart were selling.
Michael, Chief Deane is not responsible for what happens at our borders. He has a lot of experience in law enforcement. I think he should be trusted. If he HAD been trusted in the first place, we would have wasted millions of tax payer dollars to make us less safe. We could have spent 10 million on Neighborhood Services and given 20 million to Chief Deane to do as he saw fit. I bet the result would have been a drop in crime instead of an increase. And, people who lived in neighborhoods with immigrants who needed to assimilate would have been happy as well. Rick himself said so.
True Alanna, but state the rest of the story.
Most frequently committed crimes by “illegals” in PWC
Driving without license – 175
Public drunkeness- 154
DUI -111
Larceny – 54
Fraud – 39
Assaults – 29
Possession/sale of cocaine/meth – 16
Possession of marijuana – 14
Sex offenses – 10
Prostitution – 9
Aggravated assult – 4
ALL but possession of marijuana and aggravated assult are greater proportionally as a percentages of the total polulation committed in greater percentages than the average Non-illegal person. In these areas croe by “illegals” is a higher percentage of the population than crimes by “non-illegals”.
Just shows you how Alanna can twist the numbers and leave out the other important facts yto manipulate your opinion toward supporting allowing “illegal” immigrants to remain in the country and continue to commit crimes the whole community notices and is affected by in terms of poverty, wealth, and standard of living.
The significant number in my mind is the number of murders COMMITED BY ILLEGALS or by specific ethnic groups we don’t measure in 2007 that likely went DOWN as a result of increased law enforcement. If they went up as they seem to a small factor you could equally say it was a result of lax law enforcement in 2008 that allowed this increase to happen that would be pure speculation as to the reason why. (Since it was never measured as a cause and effect between crime and illegal immigrant numbers, and can’t be measured in 2007, YOU don’t KNOW). The same issue applies to the number of rapes and burglaries committed by “illegals” that may have gone down as result of law enforcement emphasis regarding “illegals” but since you have no “illegal” numbers in 2007 to compare it to, YOU DON’T KNOW) and you can’t make up something not measured in 2007. All we know is the population of “illegals likely went down, but how much relative to the crime committed by them in 2007, YOU DON’T KNOW. All of your inferences are QUESSING and SPECULATION.
I trust Cheif Dean. I only dislike the fact that he was against asking EVERYONE at all stops for their legal status. That is law enforcement shirking of the law and caving in to racist political pressure from Hispanic advocacy groups.
Comment above for ShellyB…
ShellyB, the “invasion” is 45 million formerly illegal and 12 million illegal people who have increased our population in the past 25 years without permission and without our values (the majority values) changed our democratic political structure to be pro-ethnic group racists like in the 1950s. This is what I object to, not what ethnicity they are from.
Ethnicity preference and discrimmination is mostly a racist problem with others on the blog here who specifically support hispanics over all other races and ethnicities, not me.
People have ignored the impact of 45 million formerly illegal immigrants on our population growth, our politics, our overall wealth, and our community primarily because we have been NAIVE, and never enforced the LAW. WE never TRACKED such impact, we have very liberal ideas about an open society with no tarrifs or Glass-Steel regulations, and passed HUD 8A laws to help only segregated ethnic groups identified as priviliged ethnic classes (that was extremely destructive to our nation ovwer the past 25 years). When you study cause and effect you come to this conclusion, just like socialism destroyed USSR over 50 years of abusive and stupid politics. People can only see the negative effects of it on their streets and they don’t know if it is a result of racial preference or “illegal” behavior. I choose to blame our failures on what I believe is the root cause, lack of law enforcement on all “illegals” over the past 25 years, just as much as I blame our current financial woes on lack of law enforcement to prevent fraud from these former and current illegals obtaining mortgages they could not qualify for, and lack of law enforcement on the ethnic brokers who pushed such “illegal” papers, bundled them and sold them as credit defaut swap securities ALL rated AAA when they were NOT. LACK OF LAW ENFORCEMENT EVERYWHERE IS THE ROOT PROBLEM, and why we need to get rid of every democrat or republican in congress who let it happen over the past 25 years, and punish ALL of those who BROKE THE LAW.
ShellyB, I didn’t focus on “minorities” YOU DID. I focused on ILLEGALS. I am not the racist, YOU and most others are the ones thinking in terms of ethnicity, since you can’t even tell the difference between “illegal” and your favorite “RACE” you want to protect.
The majority of the American public is ANGRY, really ANGRY over this, and unlike people in Europe have not taken to the streets in public outrage yet to express their outrage at all who are responsible for “illegal” behavior in America. I hear it on C-span and it is rising… The rage will swell until Congress and the Justice department punishes all those who let it happen over the past 25 years.
Obama better listen to it or that rage will turn on him within the next year, if he continues to support “illegal” immigrants and only “protected” ethnic classes while ignoring or lacking any sincere concern for ALL “low income” people affected so seriously by ALL of this “ILLEGAL” behavior.
Michael, what ever the percentage of “illegals” it is somewhere down in the 4% range, possibly as high as 10%. That is a minority. It’s hard to justify spending $30 million dollars to get rid of them. Not with out lies. That is why Corey Stewart, Greg Letiecq, and John Stirrup told us that they were committing a whole lot of crime. Well, these statistics don’t bear that out. In fact, it looks like undocumented folks commit less crime than the average citizen. So there really was no justification for spending those $30 million dollars, especially with all the deficits we were already facing. Now we have made our economy worse, we are thought of as the “arm pit” of Virginia, and to top it all off we have MORE CRIME IN OUR COUNTY NOT LESS! And, the categories where we have seen a drop are probably because people are now afraid to report crimes when they are victimized. Talks about “angry,” if the average citizen ever seees the crime numbers next to their ballooning tax rates and shrinking home values, then we’ll see some “angry.”
3% of the total persons arrested are illegal aliens
86.9% of illegal aliens arrested were for misdeamenor or traffic charges
These are the kicker stats for me. So 3% of those arrested in PWC are “illegals”. Of the 3%, 87% of the arrests are for traffic or petty crimes, not the rapes, murders et al touted by Greg? Is that what I am hearing?! AND these are the FACTS, correct? Not just the un empirical evidence Corey described in his Congressional testimony?
HUH? People in the streets of Europe are enraged over greedy bankers, corporate exectutives, and a general lack of government oversight for financial institutions…… not immigrants.@michael
simple and to the point Twinad, great summation! @TWINAD
Yeah, really well put TWINAD. I wonder if we’d had this information before if we could have avoided the whole damned tragedy. We got sold and I can’t even explain why. Who believes Greg and Corey now days? Almost no one, so how did this happen?
Is there any way to get that chart to be bigger, Alanna? I had to really squint to realize that the blue bars are population going up, and the red line is crime going down until Greg Letiecq and Corey Stewart screwed our government, and crime went up.
For a larger version, click on the chart.
Leave it to Zorba the Dumb Ass over on the dark screen to try to spin the continuing downward trend as an illegal issue. Nice try Zorba. How does one establish a correlation between crime and a segment of the population when the numbers simply do not support it.
I think it is time for Corey and his puppet master to just stop talking about the crime rate. It is time for him just to find a different song to sing. He is trying to pull rabbits and lies out of his butt.
It seems Corey Stewart has had a relapse with regard to the fiendish propaganda of Greg Letiecq. I had hoped that Letiecq’s despicable cherry picking of crime statistics would allow Stewart to refrain from stooping to such levels.
It is a very small and shrinking minority of our county that still reads Letiecq’s blog for anything beyond a circus of childish conspiracy theories and paranoid rants. If Stewart wanted to pander to this constituency, he could have allowed Letiecq to do the dirty work and kept himself (and our county) above the fray. Letiecq’s faithful followers have accepted many lies in the past without applying critical thought, and would need no additional convincing from our Chairman on this one.
But the majority of the county would prefer to put the whole ordeal behind us, and each time our County Chairman publicly quotes Greg Letiecq, it only reminds us of the debacle these two demagogues caused in their days of artificially generated noise and intellectual fusion.
I had argued recently that Stewart would soon be breaking ties with Letiecq. Sources had even told me the two were no longer on speaking terms, and this may be partially true. But the fact that the two are singing the same tune this week suggests to me that the damage Letiecq has inflicted upon Stewart goes beyond politics and beyond reputation; he has damaged Stewart’s character as well.
Assuming this damage is containable if not reversible, I would like to believe that Stewart’s affable personal qualities might allow him to mend his worsening reputation, and with it the reputation of our county. But if he truly has a desire to achieve this, he must stop lying to the public about important issues like public safety.
I rather suspect that if one did a thorough analysis of trends going back to 2000 or even somewhat earlier, you’d find that crime was generally decreasing in PWC. This was a time of great economic improvement, and very good political leadership. The police force improved dramatically. You might see some fluctuations in types of crime that increased or decreased, but I doubt that anyone could establish that there were substantial crime increases that coincided with the growth of particular ethnic communities in the county.
I don’t much like the idea that pols who played the game of inciting panic for votes get to re-position themselves in time for their next project. Any political figure (and there were quite a few) who played along with fanning this immigration hysteria, who freely advocated using public funds in all disproportion to the nature and expense of the problem (and there is a problem, but it’s not the one they fabricated and it’s not one that the locals can solve), who advocated mis-use of local law enforcement in a way that detracted from the real issues of public safety, who thumbed their noses at the Constitution, should be political dead meat forever. It is an issue of character for reasonably intelligent people like Stewart. They knew what they were doing. There are some stupid pols who really believe this stuff. Their defect is that they are not qualified to cross the street without a crossing guard, let alone hold public office, and are to be afforded some sympathy. I sort of think that FitzSimmonds may fall in this category, but I’m not entirely certain. But the ones who played this for votes with no compunction are beneath contempt and should be hounded forever until they leave the public arena.
A very shrewd honest and capable guy who has won his share of political battles in Northern Virginia once told me that local politicians have to attack real problems in the community, but they should never allow themselves to get hooked to an issue where, to get votes, they have to run down the community. The problem with Stewart using the 2I issue to get himself elected was that to make it work, he had to dramatically overstate how bad things were in the community he wanted to lead. That kind of rhetoric from a politician has all sorts of predictable negative consequences for a community. No leader who cares about his neighbors and his mission would ever do that. However, if what you care about is your own political skin, what-the-hell, go for it. And it worked at least once. Stewart knows it won’t work again. He has to find something new.
Thank for visiting NoVaScout, EXCELLENT commentary.@NoVA Scout
NoVa Scout, that was a tremendous essay. Thank you. It is so difficult to express the ways in which Corey Stewart has failed this county without using strong language that drags you into the same hyperbole and negativism that has characterized his tenure as Chairman. But you have done so in a way that captures both the disgust and the sadness so many of us feel.
I wonder though, if it WAS all about the election, why is Stewart still distorting and dissembling?
“… the debaters shout more loudly and appeal more directly to
emotions that made reasonable debate impossible. Men put special
meaning on words and phrases, so what sounded good to one sounded
evil to the other, and certain slogans took on their own significance
and became portentous, streaming in the heated air like banners against
the sunset; and even voices that called for moderation became
immoderate. Americans could do almost anything except sit down and
take a reasoned and dispassionate view of their situation.”
“The Coming Fury”
(The start of the Civil War)
by Bruce Catton
Richard, I had the same thoughts when it was all spiraling into madness. It’s hard to take a dispassionate view when at the core is an ethnic underclass whose rights and dignity are in question and under attack. Defusing a tense situation and building consensus is a skill that a true leader should have, and that Corey Stewart lacks. I think we need to put the Corey Stewart types to bed forever, not just in this county but in America. They have led us to ruin too many times in the past.
NoVAScout, that’s an excellent and balanced criticism of Stewart:
I guess the bottom line for Corey Stewart is he feels safer tucked under Greg Leteicq’s wing than out in the moderate middle.
@Witness Too
Or having Greg Leteicq as his puppet-master. Moderate middle is a far better place to be.
FYI – From the NYT website:
The Binghamton, NY shootings today were at the American Civic
Association, “a place that provides services for immigrants and
helps them learn Englsh.”
The name or motive of the shooter, at this time, is not known.
Maybe Stewart’s theory is that paranoid right wing extremism is on the rise again in the county? Are there any signs of that? Only on Gospel Greg blog. Anywhere else?
If this is Stewart’s campaign strategy, he may win the primary but he’d certainly lose in the general.
We are watching the story closely.@Poor Richard
Massacre kills 12 at immigration center in NY
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/hostage_shooting
To build upon what NoVA Scout has said, I’d like to offer an unlikely analogy involving gun rights.
I support federal gun control laws we already have on the books, but I oppose new federal laws being proposed to “close the gun show loop hole,” which means enforcing the same background checks at gun shows that are enforced at gun stores.
The proponents of this new restriction claim that this is a public safety issue. Imagine how American gun-owners would feel if a group of liberal lawmakers created hysteria about “gun show serial killers,” and got the law passed … BUT THEN, we learned that less than 2 percent of the guns used to commit crimes in the U.S. are purchased at gun shows? (That’s a fact by the way). Voters and fellow lawmakers would feel duped, and lied to, and they would focus their anger at those who did the lying.
By the same token, many residents of Prince William County feel duped and lied to with regard to the “Immigration Resolution” and Corey Stewart/Greg Letiecq’s campaign to create fear and hysteria in support of, not only the Resolution, but also Stewart’s reelection campaign. (It is telling that we are less angry at John Stirrup, who introduced the Resolution, because he spent a good deal less time lying to us about it.)
Letiecq and Stewart loudly and proudly claimed that the “crackdown” was a public safety issue, even as the Police Chief informed them that the measure would indeed be counter productive. Now, the Annual Crime Statistics Report proves the Police Chief prophetic. Less than 4% of the crime in Prince William county is committed by undocumented immigrants, and during the year of Corey Stewart’s “crackdown,” our crime rate went up.
That means the tax increases we have suffered, and the tens of millions of dollars we have spent were not only been wasted, they have been counter-productive as the Chief had warned us. And, the “culture of lawlessness” used to justify the Immigration Resolution was, if not an outright lie, pure conjecture.
To defend against the plain truth, Corey Stewart has decided to go on the attack in a manner that is equal parts Karl Rove and George Orwell. His argument is this: “Even though crime has gone up, we should all feel safer because crimes against persons are not being reported as often as they were when the public better trusted our police force.”
That’s kind of like saying, “Even though your property tax rate has ballooned two years in a row, you should consider it to be a tax CUT because the value of your home has dropped so much.”
The only fools who buy either one of those snow jobs are digitally generated fools.