Once again, developers are proposing to solve our transportation problems by building more houses. Once again the target area is the Rural Crescent, where the Avendale development would increase residential densities from 12 to 295 homes if approved by Supervisors.
Let’s do a recap of the recent financial bloodletting in the real estate market for Prince William County. With thousands of homes still in foreclosure and more than 30 THOUSAND approved new homes still unbuilt, it’s fair to say that a lack of housing is NOT an issue for Prince William County.
Adding insult to injury, these unneeded new homes are proposed for the County’s “protected” rural area. Why is the Rural Crescent the most valuable land use tool this County can claim? Because it establishes a rural area with lower population densities, reducing the need to invest precious limited tax dollars for infrastructure.
Every citizen benefits, from west to east, by NOT having to invest tax dollars to build new roads, new schools, new hospitals, etc. in areas far from the County’s population centers. Instead, the County should invest our resources in areas where we get the biggest bang for our buck – the development area.
However, Developers have asked the Board for special consideration to build MORE homes in areas that don’t make sense. Considering the County’s current housing glut as well as the economic climate (both the County and the state are broke), you have to ask yourself, WHY would Supervisors approve this proposal.
This logic would be the same as going on a diet by eating MORE fattening food. Ah, if only, that could be true (audible sigh) However, living in reality, I realize that eating MORE food will not help me lose weight… just as I understand that building more homes and dismantling an effective land use tool, the Rural Crescent, will NOT solve the County’s infrastructure deficit or financial woes. In fact, such development would have the opposite effect in the short AND long term.
Chairman Stewart and Supervisors May, Principi, and Stirrup understood these concepts when they all signed the Rural Crescent Pledge during the last election cycle. Now, two years later, citizens are depending on them to follow through and honor their campaign promises.
When Supervisors vote on the Avendale proposal on January 12th I am hopeful they will vote to support effective long-range planning and limit future, unnecessary costs to taxpayers by voting to deny Avendale.
Update: Here’s the much requested Fiscal Impact Analysis on the Proposed Avendale Development by Bob Pugh.
Pugh’s Bio –
Bob Pugh, CFA was a Senior Financial Analyst for the Prince William County Government from 1999 to 2003. During that time he worked extensively on fiscal and economic impact analysis, including serving as the County’s liaison with Dr. Steven Fuller of George Mason University on development of a fiscal impact model for the County. His work included analysis of regional economic issues pertaining to Prince William County, analysis of tax burdens, revenue forecasting, proffer calculations and proffer calculation methodology, and projected returns on economic development projects.
Bob has many years of experience as an academic in economics, finance and investments, most recently teaching as member of the Practitioner Faculty in Finance for the Johns Hopkins University’s Carey School of Business. He volunteers in many roles in the Prince William County community.
Currently, he owns and manages a financial planning and wealth management firm based in Gainesville, Virginia. He is a past-President of the 1,700-member CFA Society of Washington, DC and serves currently as the CFA Institute’s Eastern Region Presidents Council Representative, representing investment professionals in CFA Societies from Maine through Virginia. Bob is a long-time member of both the CFA Institute and the National Association for Business Economics.
Just what we need – as if there aren’t already a zillion housing new housing developments popping up all over Gainesville/Haymarket. They just started tearing down trees for Peterson Corp’s Wentworth Green development – across on the other side of Wellington Road from the VA Gateway Shopping Center. That’s going to be a lot of houses right there. Until 2-3 weeks ago, it was a nice wooded area – but now a huge swath of trees have been taken down and more are going to follow. Definitely already has degraded the appearance of that side of Wellington Rd.
They seem to be ignoring the rural crescent. They want to build a huge soccer complex on the Wiita tract, which borders one side of my neighborhood. Huge klieg lights will light up the sky at night – making backyard home astronomy impossible. Not to mention the traffic it will generate on Rollins Ford Road – which is only 2 lanes now (built by the developer). The orignal agreement was for it to be 4 lanes, the developer do half and the county do half. Due to the obvious budget issues in the county – the county elected NOT to do their half for the forseeable future. Imagine the traffic on Rollins Ford Rd. with this soccer complex, that would even have a stadium and in some proposals 5 soccer fields. The Wiita tract I think either falls just inside the edge, or outside the edge, or the Rural Crescent. I’m not sure which, I’m fuzzy on the boundary of the Rural Crescent.
Anyway, building that new neighborhood INSIDE the Rural Crescent is just plain wrong! Why define a Rural Crescent if you are going to keep making exceptions to it and granting waivers to developers who pay enough money to the county in the way of proffers and such? The rules of the Rural Crescent should be hard and fast, no exceptions. Otherwise, it won’t be the Rural Crescent for long! Gainesville/Haymarket already is growing by leaps and bounds. It’s unbelievable already how many new houses have sprung up (even in this bad economy) in the 14 months since I’ve moved in.
Thirty thousand unbuilt? Where? Are those builders pulling those and moving their business elsewhere? How many kids is that going to produce for the school system? Sounds like 60,000 new kids to me in a system that is already at 70k.
I find this number staggering. Over what period of time? 20 years, ok. Anything less, not ok.
There’s a HUGE backlog of housing developments ALREADY approved for Gainesville/Haymarket that are “in the pipeline”. It’s enough for a long time. What Elena wrote there is correct – we don’t need any new developments approved! In fact, only good thing maybe about the downturn is it has slowed down some developers starting to break land on their already approved developments. That’s maybe the only “silver lining” in this housing mess, if there was one.
January 12 will be interesting – I think that’s when the Wiita tract soccer stadium complex proposal comes up again too! I know the final vote on it will be January 27. I hope both projects get voted DOWN.
Gainesville,
If you could make it Tuesday night, 7:30, McCoart Building, that would be great, there should be plenty of citizens there and numbers will absolutely count! If you can’t make it in person, please send an e-mail, your points are fabulous!
Click here to email all Supervisors.
hmm, that link did not work. Just go directly to http://www.pwconserve.org/whotocontact.html#pwcbos and scroll down to where it says “click here to e-mail all supervisors”
It’s a stacked deck. The developer community has patience, financial backing and are on the “inside” to influence County policy. This is their “day job”. Their efforts to influence County policy are tax deductable business expenses (ironic when you think about it).
On the other hand, “we” are volunteers working on our own time at our own expense to try and achieve some balance. Most people have day jobs which keep them on the “outside”. Our efforts are not tax deductable. We have organizations like PW CA that work hard to protect Prince William County’s environment; however, by their nature they cannot take policy positions (if they wish to retain their non-profit status).
If we truly care, we need to form a PAC to put money and professional lobbyist behind the words that are stated above to get what we want. We need to get on the inside or resign ourselves to more development. I know I would join such a group and make a modest donation should one present itself. I’m guessing I’m not alone.
Words give us a warm fuzzy; however, it takes money to make a difference.
A vote for Avendale is a vote for higher taxes.
Everyone should let supervisors know citizens understand this.
The Supervisors who recognize the reality of my last post and stands up for the men and women of Prince William County who are busy commuting and taking care of their families every day should be rewarded at the ballot box. We need to keep score on how they are doing truly representing our interests… and notice when we are only given apologies for decisions that clearly are not in our interests.
The first place to keep track of who is buying who is the Virginia Public Access Project http://www.vpap.org/
It’s ALWAYS about the money.
WHEN will this County get it? We need to deal with the mess we are in now instead of piling on more. Is our government run by people who even are capable of forethought?
I agree Opinion.
@SaneGrowth
M-h, ironically – our Government is run by “us”; however, we routinely abdicate the influence we should have by not paying attention or communicating with our Supervisors or the Chairman. We are, in effect, “Stockholders” represented by an elected board who should be working to protect our “shareholder value”. The system only breaks down if we let it.
We could fix that if we wished; however, we are generally busy with the business of “living”. ’tis a pity… we get the Government we deserve.
Thank you, Elena.
The Prince William Conservation Alliance has information on the approved but unbuilt houses as of December 2007 posted online at http://www.pwconserve.org/issues/landuseplanning/compplan/2008/index.htm#buildout
Click on “Existing, Zoned and Planned Residential Units as of December 2007.” The report says there are 31,345 new homes approved and on the books that could be built at any time.
Building has been slow, so this number could be even higher now. Plus there’s all those the empty, foreclosed properties. My goodness, what could our elected officials be thinking? Obviously they think people are not paying attention.
I can’t believe Mom was NOT the first to comment, but no comment yet. hmm 🙂
On a serious note. Next week’s agenda is now available online.
http://www.pwcgov.org/documents/bocs/agendas/currentagenda.pdf
Here’s the Rezoning text(all 63 pages) to be voted on at next weeks meeting.
http://www.pwcgov.org/documents/bocs/agendas/2010/0112/15-B.pdf
Will share thoughts after reviewing the text.
Opinion, great points as usual.
THAT is genius Anonymous! I wish I had thought of that last week, that would have been a great slogan for signs! @Anonymous
Anonymous, please use a number for future posts so we can keep track of who said what and address you. ie : anonymous1 or 2 etc. We don’t want you to go unanswered.
30,000 homes is totally ridiculous. Who is going to live in these unbuilt homes? What roads will they drive on, where will their children go to school. This is insanity! If those houses were all built in the next 3 years it could potentially increase our school population by nearly 100%. That means doubling the number of schools, if each house has 2.5 kids.
Lafayette,
There is a great financial analysis by Bob Pugh. Let me know if you want to take a look at it, his numbers are staggering. He really breaks down how and WHY this development will cost taxpayers a substantial amount of money. This county should be concentrating on bringing in commercial revenue, haven’t they learned?
Also, the other point I did not mention is that the Developer will bring sewer down 28 into the Rural Crescent. Developers HAVE always used being in close proximity to sewer as a reason to rezone to higher densities. This development would be extremely detrimental, for many reasons, to Nokesville AND the future of the Rural Crescent.
Let’s just ask a direct question: are any of the 8 supervisors supporting this move? If yes, who?
Moon,
I have yet to recieve word back from any supervisor I e-mailed regarding this proposal. I am hopeful that the Supervisors who signed the Rural Crescent Pledge will be true to their word. Maureen Caddigan has also supported the Rural Crescent, her no vote against Greater South Market was integral to preserving the RC back in 2003.
@Elena
The county should be talking to Lockheed about the relocation of their HQ’s which will be relocated to our region. I say PWC should be working that one hard. Who’s department is that anyways?
Send Mr. Pugh’s analysis via email. He’s ALWAYS very well thought out and accurate. I’m always interested in his opinion on the development of this county.
@Lafayette
I sent you Bob’s report, it is extremely well done and informative.
EXACTLY!
Isn’t Lockheed losing 1200 positions? Will any of those positions be from Manassas?
Bob Pugh’s Bio and a link to the Fiscal Impact Report for the Proposed Avendale Development.
http://www.antibvbl.net/Avendale_Fiscal_Impact_Analysis.pdf
Lafayette, sorry to disappoint with my late arrival, been just a wee bit busy. Elena is right, there is nothing good about this application and in prior years I would expect it to get approved nonetheless with some measure of token opposition thrown in as part of the show.
That being said, things are a little different now. I expect that Supervisors May, Principi, and Stirrup will likely vote against. Similarly, I fully expect Covington, Nohe and Jenkins to vote in favor of it, it does after all introduce sewer and water into the Rural Crescent, the holy grail for Wally. Which leaves it in the hands of Maureen and Corey. Sorry, I just don’t have much faith in Mrs. Caddigan, particularly as it was her appointee to the Planning Commission who was the sole member to vote in favor of the Lake Manassas Comp. Map Ammendment this week. She may talk the talk but doesn’t often walk the walk. I have personally been guaranteed a position by her only to have her vote the other way and publicly deny she had said anything to anybody. Note to Mrs. Caddigan, I have a long memory and payback can be a real bitch. Thus, to my way of thinking it all falls to our Chairman, Captain Soundbyte. If he lives up to his “no more residential housing” pledges, at worst the application dies in a tie. If he doesn’t (a move that would likely destroy any political future he has left) it will mark the end of the Rural Crescent.
From a strategy standpoint, the attorneys for the applicant, my favorite land-use law firm (Sarcasm alert, Hi Mike) likely are well prepared with a plethora of reasons for approval, commendations for the reccomendations of the planning office and a fair number of people lined up to testify in favor. What I suspect they do not have in this particular instance are well-financed, well-connected resources from outside the county to put pressure on the BOCS for approval. Those resources are ususally the difference makers in such controversial applications See:UVA Foundation rezoning and the appearance of the UVA Board of Visitors. Thus, a large turnout of residents in opposition to the application, particularly those that live in the immediate area of the rezoning, has a good chance of influencing the final outcome. For all of her flaws I would note that Mrs. Caddigan can count and that a significantly higher number of opponents speak than those in favor, it would give her the wiggle room to vote against the application.
OK, I’ll see – I might go to the meeting. If not, will definitely put it in an e-mail to the supervisors following the link below your post that I’m referencing.
Actually, it is Northrup Grumman’s relocation to DC Metro (from Los Angeles) that was recently announced.
However, I agree – PWC should try to snag it.
Good question. Yes, Lockheed announced they were combining two divisions and that 1200 jobs would be affected. I talked yesterday with my former manager at IBM, who still works at Lockheed. However, he works in Chantilly and not Manassas these days, so he didn’t really know the impact (if any) on Manassas.
So to sum it up for everyone:
1. Northrup Grumman is transferring their headquarters (300 high paying jobs) from Los Angeles to somewhere in DC Metro area – they are looking for the best “deal” obviously.
2. Lockheed Martin just announced 2 days ago they were eliminating 1200 jobs by combining some duplicate operations. Not sure if Manassas Lockheed will be affected or not. (Hopefully NOT – Manassas/{WC doesn’t need a huge amount of jobs leaving just when its housing market seems to be rebounding – many employees at the Manassas location live in Manassas or PWC obviously!).
Mom,
Greater South Market was almost identical to this proposal and citizens prevailed. Supervisor Caddigan voted to deny and I am just praying she does the same for this hideous development.
I enjoyed your comment immensely BTW 🙂
Gainesville, thanks for the correction. Lockheed is already in our area. Northrop has been in the Dulles Corner almost twenty years now. I think they’d be a nice addition to the county.
Northrop needs to be invtited to PWC. We have plenty of low value real estate in the county. 🙁
I particulary enjoyed Capt. Soundbyte!!!!
Bwaaahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
Lafayette, are any of our suprvisors out trying to lure Northrop Brumman into our area? Is our Chamber of Commerce working on it? Who is out danging the community carrot? Did I hear you say you would be willing to help?
Moon,
I don’t have a clue. I know that Mr. Lafayette wants to know who’s job it is to attract Northrop here. He never says too much about that sort of thing. He said he wanted to know who’s responsibility is was, and hold them accountable. I would MOST certainly be willing to assist in any way possible. We really do have a lot to offer in PWC.
They can set up operation here, and have affordable housing for their employees–or they can set up along the Dulles corridor, have all their people live here and then sit in rush hour traffic for a couple hours a day. Sounds like a great selling point to me.
Don’t we have an overpaid county staffer whose job it is to entice such entities into the county? It would be nice if the next economic development report noted a few executive positions brought into the county as result of his efforts, rather than the fifteen new baristas for the newest Starbucks that are listed in each report.
I just finished reading the Comprehensive Plan amendment for Avendale http://www.pwcgov.org/documents/bocs/agendas/2010/0112/15-A.pdf
Why is our Planning Commission and County Staff on opposite sides on this issue? One would assume they would make every attempt to be on the same side of any land use issue. The answer to all problems with two points of view usually lies somewhere in the middle. Is there some sort of communication problem between these two groups? What am I missing?
Insight welcome.
Opinion, IMHO it is not really an issue of the Planning Commission (a couple of knuckleheads aside) not being on the same page as the Planning Office but rather the Planning Office failing or more correctly refusing to do its job properly and transparently. It all starts at the top with Griffin and Utz. Ever since they were brought in from our neighbor to the south developers and their counsel have been able to write their own tickets, citizens’s conerns have been given short-shrift at best. I could write a book on the matter but instead I’ll just illustrate with a couple of examples from BOCS and PC meetings as well as first hand experience.
1. Planning Office staff when questioned why they hadn’t done a proffer analysis cited the records being stored in the archives as the reason for their failure, they couldn’t traverse that vast wasteland between buildings to retrieve the previous proffers. When asked to produce them for a PC meeting, staff refused.
2. BOCS/PC to planning staff member: Did you review/understand this particular item.
Staff member: Huh, Uhhh, Err, What was the question?, No
BOCS/PC member: Why
Staff member: Silence
BOCS/PC member: (throws up hands and moves on)
3. Planning Staff to PC or BOCS on even months: This item is not in conformance with the Gainesville Sector and that is a strength of the application.
Planning Staff to PC or BOCS on odd months: This item is in conformance with the Gainesville Sector and that is a strength of the application.
4. Planning Staff report paragraph 1: The average fire/rescue response time is eleven minutes, seven minutes outside the required four minute response time.
Planning Staff report paragraph 5: The application has no weaknesses and is substantially in conformance with fire and rescue chapter.
5. BOCS directive to Director Griffin: Provide copies of _________ to ___________ at least sixty days prior to their next meeting. Directive sent out multiple times over a several year period and almost universally ignored.
6. Question to Planning Staff: What happened to the wetlands denoted on the preliminary plat. Response: What wetlands Questioner: The wetlands that were denoted in the middle of the site where you now have a school located. Response: There weren’t any wetlands on the preliminary plat. Questioner: Then perhaps you would like to look at my set of the plans that clearly denote the wetlands. Response: Uhhh
Getting the picture yet?
@Mom
That helps… thanks.
We are paying money for a bad play, it sounds like. Isn’t one of those gentlemen [cough-sputter] the one who is insulting to women? If so, why is he still on the payroll?
It is not just women who find him insulting, obnoxious, arrogant, condescending, etc. There has been more than one occasion on which I would like to have knee-dropped him and watched him to the chicken.
err…”do the chicken”
Mom said: “Similarly, I fully expect Covington, Nohe and Jenkins to vote in favor of it, it does after all introduce sewer and water into the Rural Crescent, the holy grail for Wally.”
I sure remember Nohe standing on my porch when he first ran for BOCS that he was against all of the development in the county and that we needed to slow things down. Of course it was after I asked him if he supported the destruction of PW County by developers. I am so looking forward to the next election for what I feel was a mischaracterization of views.
When I challenged him and Chairman Connaughton about all of the development, their response was that they were powerless to stop development if it is in the Comprehensive Plan. They never replied when I said, “but who develops and then approves amendments to the Comprehensive Plan?” So much for caring about natural resources in this county.
@Mom
I believe the sole vote for the Lake Manassas Comp Plan Amendment at the Planning Commission was Marty Nohe’s appointee, Ernie Gonzales.
Lots of people are concerned about the wetlands that developers do not show on their maps. Developers get away with this because the county’s regulations do not require them to show ALL the wetlands. In Prince William developers are required to show only the wetlands that state and federal regulating agencies identify as qualifying for permits.
What are these people thinking? A housing development in the rural crescent and where we have enough houses already. They are still building a bunch behind me off of Rollins Ford and across from us at Wentworth. Where on earth are they going to put more trailers to stick the kids in? Bristow Run is so bad, they’ll have to take out all the playground equipment to fit another trailer and Brentsville will have to hold classes in the gym. Do any of the supervisors understand the word no?
“Isn’t one of those gentlemen [cough-sputter] the one who is insulting to women?” I think you are talking about the long range planning guy but I do remember that one of complaints in the same harassment was that the head of planning was best friends with one of the land use attorneys. It was on one of the blogs but I couldn’t find it when I tried to search. Does anyone else remember?
I wonder if that same attorney firm is representing this developer? If so, it could explain why the staff was for it but the PC is against it.
anona, I hadn’t put that together but you are correct. Mike Lubely was said to be best friends with the planning director and he is also the attorney representing the Avendale proposal.
Anon, you may be right, its hard to hear those PC audio files but I could have sworn it was Mr. Frey who voted in favor.
Time for a little sunshine on the employees who are a little too cozy with land use attorneys. And while we are at it, I think we have a right to demand that all employees treat the public courteously. If they cannot be couteous, they can be replaced.
Mom, you might have to swing in to action.
Aren’t these people evaluated?
It is unlikely that a majority of the BOCS will want to have any light shed on staff as that would expose their own dealings to that same sunshine (yes Wally and Marty that is principally directed at you but also at Maureen and Jabba Jenkins, for the time being I’ll give Stirrup a pass). That being said, the first domino has already fallen in the sense that Herr Gerhardt has already left the building. I’m afraid we won’t know what’s next until the new County Exec. is hired. I’m hopeful they will select someone with a little backbone who will quickly evaluate what is going on in various county agencies and subsequently commence with the lopping off of heads. I can think of a deputy county exec.’s head whose should be one of the first to fly.