Once again, developers are proposing to solve our transportation problems by building more houses. Once again the target area is the Rural Crescent, where the Avendale development would increase residential densities from 12 to 295 homes if approved by Supervisors.
Let’s do a recap of the recent financial bloodletting in the real estate market for Prince William County. With thousands of homes still in foreclosure and more than 30 THOUSAND approved new homes still unbuilt, it’s fair to say that a lack of housing is NOT an issue for Prince William County.
Adding insult to injury, these unneeded new homes are proposed for the County’s “protected” rural area. Why is the Rural Crescent the most valuable land use tool this County can claim? Because it establishes a rural area with lower population densities, reducing the need to invest precious limited tax dollars for infrastructure.
Every citizen benefits, from west to east, by NOT having to invest tax dollars to build new roads, new schools, new hospitals, etc. in areas far from the County’s population centers. Instead, the County should invest our resources in areas where we get the biggest bang for our buck – the development area.
However, Developers have asked the Board for special consideration to build MORE homes in areas that don’t make sense. Considering the County’s current housing glut as well as the economic climate (both the County and the state are broke), you have to ask yourself, WHY would Supervisors approve this proposal.
This logic would be the same as going on a diet by eating MORE fattening food. Ah, if only, that could be true (audible sigh) However, living in reality, I realize that eating MORE food will not help me lose weight… just as I understand that building more homes and dismantling an effective land use tool, the Rural Crescent, will NOT solve the County’s infrastructure deficit or financial woes. In fact, such development would have the opposite effect in the short AND long term.
Chairman Stewart and Supervisors May, Principi, and Stirrup understood these concepts when they all signed the Rural Crescent Pledge during the last election cycle. Now, two years later, citizens are depending on them to follow through and honor their campaign promises.
When Supervisors vote on the Avendale proposal on January 12th I am hopeful they will vote to support effective long-range planning and limit future, unnecessary costs to taxpayers by voting to deny Avendale.
Update: Here’s the much requested Fiscal Impact Analysis on the Proposed Avendale Development by Bob Pugh.
Pugh’s Bio –
Bob Pugh, CFA was a Senior Financial Analyst for the Prince William County Government from 1999 to 2003. During that time he worked extensively on fiscal and economic impact analysis, including serving as the County’s liaison with Dr. Steven Fuller of George Mason University on development of a fiscal impact model for the County. His work included analysis of regional economic issues pertaining to Prince William County, analysis of tax burdens, revenue forecasting, proffer calculations and proffer calculation methodology, and projected returns on economic development projects.
Bob has many years of experience as an academic in economics, finance and investments, most recently teaching as member of the Practitioner Faculty in Finance for the Johns Hopkins University’s Carey School of Business. He volunteers in many roles in the Prince William County community.
Currently, he owns and manages a financial planning and wealth management firm based in Gainesville, Virginia. He is a past-President of the 1,700-member CFA Society of Washington, DC and serves currently as the CFA Institute’s Eastern Region Presidents Council Representative, representing investment professionals in CFA Societies from Maine through Virginia. Bob is a long-time member of both the CFA Institute and the National Association for Business Economics.
Just learned the Nissan Pavilion has been renamed
“Jiffy Lube Live”. The new name certainly describes
the planning process in western PWC.
Poor Richard, I just posted about the new name. Oh awful. Is there any way the county can decline to use that name? Let the jokes begin. I think Penzoil might be a little better than jiffy lube.
Mom, maybe all of them should be lopping off heads of those who are continually rude to their customers, the people of Prince William.
We must be in the same area. I’m also off Rollins Ford Rd (between it and Glenkirk). Indeed, all sorts of stuff is going up around Rollins Ford, and it’s going to become a busy road. It will be a DISASTER if the Wiita Tract is used for a soccer complex – imagine what THAT will do to Rollins Ford Rd.
And, as you said, they just started leveling the trees over across Wellington from the VA Gateway Center for the Wentworth Green project, which is some huge number of houses – I forget exactly how many. That side of Wellington already looks so much different (and not for the better) with all those trees gone, and they aren’t done yet!
Is that a joke or is that REALLY the new name of the Nissan Pavillion? If it is, how appropriate. That place is a disaster anyway – whoever decided to put it there and not fix up Wellington Road in a major way should be shot. The traffic mess it causes around here when Nissan is in session in the summer is a disaster. I always have to remember not to go down Wellington when Nissan’s going to have a concert. I once made that mistake, and paid for it by being stuck for 20 minutes trying to get past Nissan on Wellington Road – trying to get down to the Merrifield Garden Center just a little bit further south on Wellington! What a mistake that was! I now make sure to look at the Nissan schedule summer evenings or weekends to make sure I don’t ever make that mistake again!
Speaking of lots of school trailers – you should see all the ones they put in at Glenkirk ES this year. It had zero last year, and then this year it has 7 I think!! I don’t know where they’d put another one on the grounds except in the parking lot, or else in one of the athletic fields! I was amazed the first time I saw them after they arrived – how many there were! Of course, the neighborhoods serving Glenkirk ES are growing by leaps and bounds.
“Mike Lubely was said to be best friends with the planning director and he is also the attorney representing the Avendale proposal.” Isn’t that unethical or at least questionable? I thought the FBI caught the elected officials up in Loudoun who were doing something similar.
Nissan is bad enough. I totally avoid going any of those roads in the summer. It always catches me off guard the first concert weekend and there I am stuck on Wellington. AFter the season starts we will drive way around it to avoid the area. I have always felt for those people who used to be trapped in Sheffeld Manor. At least they have University to sneak in the back way now.
anona – same here as far as I’m concerned about Nissan. I now learned to check their schedule before I go out that way. I think last summer though that’s what happened, it was early in the season, I was going to Merrifield Garden Center from the VA Gateway Center, and I got stuck in some horrendous traffic jam around 3 PM in the afternoon – whatever concert it was must have started around 4 PM. What a mess.
I too definitely take alternative routes when I know there’s a concert there. The whole idea of having that place served by a 2 lane road is preposterous!
I still can’t believe the new name for it, or else the nickname “The Lube”. How appropriate…
I guess I can now tell everyone I just live a few miles from “The Lube”. I’m sure they’ll look at me and say “What????” !!!
Maybe you’ll be able to get your oil changed while you are at the concert, thus making your time more efficient. No more waiting in line at Jiffy Lube – just go see a concert and they’ll work on your car in the parking lot!
It’s nice to see us all agree on something for a change. We as a county should say no thank you to more home building in the Rural Crescent. Thank you Elena and everyone for providing such strong arguments from many perspectives.
I guess these days, after all the years of developers running amok and plopping down huge tracts of houses everywhere, just about everyone is fed up with them. Also, the rural enclave part of the county was a very popular idea and everyone thought it would remain protected. Most people want open space somewhere in their communities, and any changes that start high density development in the rural enclave – are bound to be met with huge resistance. Once one exception is made, you know that’s going to lead to many more, and you can forget about the rural enclave after that. Easy to see why everyone’s up in arms. The only people that would be on the other side are the developers and those who stand to profit from them building all that stuff (and I’m not sure who DOES profit actually).
I am howling, GR. Living near the Lube. Maybe someone will think you said ‘Louve.’
Yeah, that’s too funny. When I give people directions to my place that sends them up Wellington, I can say “You’ll pass The Lube on the left and then keep going straight on Wellington”!
Another idea: maybe during intermission they can use the stage as a place to change oil in people’s cars. Big pits will open up in the stage like they have at the Jiffy Lubes, and people will drive their cars up a ramp and you’ll be able to watch them work on the cars during intermission!
The whole thing is just too crazy. It’s funny, on the local Gainesville forum last summer someone had said they heard it was going to be the last season for the Nissan Pavilion, like it might close. I bet what they really heard was it was going to be the last season it was going to be sponsored by Nissan,and that person got it mixed up. So there was a foreshadowing of this. Too bad they couldn’t have picked some better corporation with a more positive image and a better name. These days, there’s big bucks in naming rights to sports and music venues, and often there’s a bidding war. I wonder in this case if Jiffy Lube is the only one who wanted to sponsor it. Then again, they could have outbid everyone else. I didn’t realize Jiffy Lube had that kind of money to spend. I never looked at how profitable a company they are (assuming they are a publicly traded company – I’m not even sure they are – not that I’d want to invest in them).
I still have this mental image of the entrance to The Lube having a giant oil can or maybe a giant oil filter hanging above it in some big archway! Many places have nice water fountains in front of them – maybe this one will have a fountain that has black liquid circulating through it. They wouldn’t use real oil, but they could use some black color liquid!!
Ever been to Indianapolis around the time of the Indie 500 or any of their other major races? Even nice hotels have oil cans in the lobby. Big inflatibles ones.
GREAT recap, that truly paints the real picture of how planning happens in this county.
@Elena
You know, County staff works for us… we have a new County Executive coming in… we need to let our Supervisor and the Chairman know we want this fixed by the new County Executive… or we will “fix” our BOCS next year (the 1011 election). Land planning is just too important for this type of behavior from “our” employees.
…and the idea of inviting a date to the “Jiffy Lube” just blows my mind. Someone didn’t think that through.
Elena – thank you for making the fiscal impact analysis available to everyone. An informed and involved citizenry is our best weapon to defend our community.
I hope everyone can show up Tuesday evening to speak at the public hearing. Now is the time to take action. Waiting until Avendale is built and our roads and schools are even more crowded, and our taxes higher, will be too late.
The developer has both money and the PWC Planning Office on their side. I expect them to show up with ringers in droves to testify about the wonders Avendale will bring to Prince William County. We need to be there to tell the Board of County Supervisors that we’re not buying it.
As some have written here, the PWC Planning Office is plagued by many problems attributable to those put in charge over the past few years. I have a lot to add to that discussion but for now, however, for the good of our community let’s focus on defeating Avendale.
You know, it sounds like the Planning Commission is on our side and the PWC Planning Office is not (and the result is an adversarial relationship). I know that the Planning Commission (at least most of the Planning Commission – Kim Hosen particularly) generally reflects my view of the World and the way Prince William County should evolve. Since our Planning Commission members are appointed by the people we elected and the PWC Planning Office staff is… well… staff, we should let our Supervisors and our Chairman know who we trust. Again, there’s an election coming up next year and we will get the Government we deserve if we don’t make some changes.
Hi Bob,
Thank YOU for investing so much of your personal time in preparing that incredible financial report.
See you Tuesday!
Well said all, now its time to game plan. Mr. Pugh has done a yeoman’s job on the numbers, I would suggest using them to crush the Planning Office’s assertions.
I would also suggest attacking the application on several other fronts.
Financial:
1. I just looked at the assessed value of the parcels involved at they appear to be assessed at about $17500/acre (if my math is right) Compare that to the $70623 cost per acre the county will be “paying” to accept the 77 acres as proffer to meet the school/parks LOS (again if my weekend my is correct) Guess that’s why the Planning Office staff isn’t employed by private industry.
2. If the applicant is proffering $73750 in accordance with ’04 reccomendation for LOS but the ’06 LOS is $295000, how can the Planning Office deem that to be “consistent with the relevant component of the Housing Plan”.
Site Design:
Look at the GDP and tell me where you find the interparcel connectors now required by VDOT. You won’t which leads to the question of who will pay for road maintenance as they likely will not be accepted into the VDOT system, will it be the HOA or PWC. If the HOA, what happens if the developer goes belly up (Piedmont anyone) before the project is complete.
Comp Plan Amendment: (This is my favorite)
1. Why is the Planning Office/BOCS considering a Comp Plan amendment when the Comp Plan is currently under review. How can it be considered in accordance with a plan that does not currently exist. The amendment is thus not ripe for consideration.
2. If on of the prinicpal premises behind the current Comp Plan revisions is to encourage TOD does this site meet those criteria. I can not believe that the site’s location on an Omnilink route constitutes the basis for deeming it a TOD. That’s just effing ridiculous and would suggest that any location in the Rural Crescent that happens to be on an Omnilink route would also be considered a prime TOD location. It’s time for someone to notify the county that people who buy single family homes far from employment locations and have 2-3 Bimmers in the garage are not likely to ever ride Omnilink with the great unwashed (my apologies to any Omnilink riders). There has to be a sense of reality to TOD, an Omnilink bus stop does not equate to a rail station and there is no way the BOCS can mandate that the new residents ride Omnilink to work.
2. Similarly, the proffer of a bus stop and possibly a bus shelter as a transit proffer left me rolling on floor in fits of laughter, is our county that stupid.
Business as Usual:
1. The Planning Office, School Board and Park Authority all need to be taken to task for supporting this in order to ensure the dedication of 77 acres for parks and schools. Both entitities have CIP and land acquisition funds that they are loathe to use if they can get “free” land, regardless whether that land fits their needs or not. See Silver Lake Middle School site and its problems with access, proximity to the lake, quarry and soil remediation or the UVA Foundation elementary school site in the middle of a wetland and backing to North Fork Creek. In rezoning case like this the School Board and the Park Authority often bear as much responsibility for bad decisions as the Planning Office as their representatives have spoken in favor of the land grabs at past meetings, and yes Jay and Ms. Beauchamp that is directed squarely at you.
Just a couple of thoughts to bolster the arguement against approval. Now cry havoc and loose the dogs of war.
I invoke the Budweiser Rule to excuse my spelling and syntax errors.
You know, if one had the domain knowledge to tell the story, they could ask to present a formal Powerpoint presentation during citizen’s time. I remember seeing the County historian do that in December. It’s amazing what you can do in three minutes (and it could be two or three citizens in a row working off the same presentation). The real goal is to make the presentation part of the record.
…followed by applause for dramatic effect, of course.
Mom – good work. Thanks for your contributions. I would like to compare notes with you sometime. I think I can guess who you are but would keep your identity confidential in any case.
Opinion – Speakers at Citizens Time are allowed to project documents from the machine next to the podium. They appear on the monitors and become part of the record. It’s not quite as good as using a Powerpoint but it gets the job done.
Ralph, who is one of the people who helped form Prince William Citizens for Balanced Growth (www.pwcbg.org) to fight the Brentswood development in 2006 is coming Tuesday. He’ll take the five minutes as the head of an organization. Everybody has read most of what I have to say in the report I wrote.
@Bob Pugh
Heads of organizations get five minutes… didn’t know that.
I can just see it now – how about coming to the Lube with me tonight! Sounds really great…
@Gainesville Resident
…..ooooooooo…….. the puns I’m going to pass on for fear of offending on an otherwise rather respectable board….
Bob,
Just so you know, that is not necessarily true anymore. As the lead representative for Advocates for the Rural Crescent, Corey denied me the 5 five minutes, and has consistently for the last 2 years. I’m not so sure Ralph can count on those five minutes.
OMG, are you serious Mom? Part of the proffer is a freakin’ bus stop? Are bus stops now considered mass transit? G-d help us all if that’s the case? How about this crazy premise, we STOP figuring out ways to jetison our citizens OUT of PWC for work and start brining REAL jobs HERE!!!!!!!!
You two (GR and Opinion) are being awfully naughty 🙂
@Elena
Yes, mam…
I’ve ssen every other organization get their five minutes, and you should not been an exception. I feel confident Corey will give the PWCBG their five minutes.
Naughty is funny. 🙄
@ Elena–I have seen lots of people get extra time. It seems to hing on whether Corey likes you or your cause.
Hmmm, are you suggesting Corey doesn’t like me?
Elena, let me put it to you this way, I’ve NEVER seen HSM’s president turned down for his five minutes.
Nor have I, Lafayette.
Elena, perhaps you should consider running for President of HSM to ensure you get the time you deserve? 😉
Opinion, that’s just the kind of laugh I need this morning after some of the things I’ve read on other local blogs. Thanks!
So when Melissa becomes County Exective all this will change
Elena is a trooper. If that’s what she has to do, then she will do it. 😉
O.K. Opinion and Moon-howler, I am NOT that much of a trooper!!!!!
Hmmm, really, HSM never turned down…interesting.
Hummmm… is their a civil rights and equal representation issue here?
In a nutshell, yes.
If you are in good graces you get extra time. If you aren’t, you might get your 3 miniutes.
No new developments. PWC has a glut of homes. Let the market stabilize before we consider any new developments, especially in the rural crescent. How about regentrification of some of the more depressed areas in the Eastern end of the county, where population density is already factored in to the CPP of the area? Last thing we need is to repeat the errors of the past, build a bunch of new developments, and dump thousands more cars on to 66 every day. Wonder where Mr. Nohe will vote on this one? History would indicate that he will vote for the development.
I agree Saved, lets not repeat the development mistakes of the past!
Save, in total agreement here too. I really don’t know how they could even think of considering this when we still haven’t caught up to the last building boom. Our schools are still overcrowded. I want to know how they all will vote. I think it’s important for our supervisors to remember their constiuents have a long memory. They are all up for re-election next year. To move forward on Avendale would just be one more strike against them with most voters would be my guess. I’m keeping a “report card” on them on various issues. You just never know what they might do.
The reason I asked about Mr. Nohe’s vote is (if history is any indication) he will likely be a swing vote.
You know there is too much growth when you are rolling down a road, glance at your 1-year old GPS, and it indicates that you are “off route” and driving through a field. Happens to me frequently in the western part of the county.
Look at that debacle in the City of Manassas, across from KC’s restaurant. This was sold as a way to get professional singles and couples to live and spend money in Old Town, while commuting to those high-paying Crystal City jobs via the VRE. These unit were supposed to be made to “blend” with the architecture of Old Town. Now the fractionally finished, bankrupt development looks like a place where troops would train for urban combat, before going off to war. The things practically sit on the road.
Why don’t we learn from Loudoun County’s mistakes, as well as our own? Let’s redevelop run down neighborhoods in Dale City, which are a stones throw from a partially filled “high dollar” development directly across from the county complex.
Ignoring Wally’s obvious contempt for the Rural Crescent and his desire for water and sewer, if other supervisors vote in favor of the application these are the reasons you are likely to hear as to why they were “forced” to vote in favor.
1. The classification in the long-range land use portion of the Comp Plan makes it impossible to deny the application because if we do the applicant/attorneys will take us to court and we will lose. Translation, we are a gutless bunch of bought and paid for cowards who don’t want to admit that we can deny applications if we deem them to have a negative impact. Besides, certain land use attorneys are our friends and we wish not to offend them by calling their bluff.
2. We need the land for the (Choose at least one: Schools, Parks, Fire Station, Water Tower) that we otherwise can’t afford because after all, its all about the kids. Translation, collectively we couldn’t properly plan for the construction of a dog house in our backyards and will willingly pass the buck on to the (Choose at least one: School Board, Park Authority, Planning Office) as they make nice scapegoats at election time. It also has the added benefit of allowing us to point out how mismanaged those departments must be as they can’t afford to build out, staff or maintain such wonderful “free” properties that we obtain for them.
3. Because of Richmond’s failure to live up to their responsibilities, we are forced to approve the application in order to secure (Choose one and only one: a left turn lane, a right turn lane, a half section of 100 yards of county road, a stoplight). Translation, since we don’t know what we’re doing the easiest out is to blame someone else.
4. Because Mike Lubely said so.
5. I’m not in favor of it but I will defer to the Supervisor (Wally) of that district because he knows what’s best for that district. Translation, if I vote no Wally won’t support a similarly shady deal in my own district.
@Mom
Mom, well said.