Today’s News and Messenger featured a story on Babur Lateef”s video , Seen Enough?, shown here and on other blogs over the weekend.
The N & M challenged the assertions made by the Lateef campaign, particularly the comparisons with the housing market and unemployment. Both checked out as reported by the campaign. However, the N & M took issue with the use of these items:
We should include a note of caution here. Experts have often told us that politicians get too much credit and blame for the economy. They’ve said that even presidents and governors have limited effects in controlling economic trends.
So it seems reasonable that a county board chairman would have an extremely limited impact over a region’s economic performance. Prince William’s economy is closely tied to that of the larger Washington metro area, as well as to the state and national economies.
Lateef’s video suggests that Stewart shoulders blame for the collapse of the financial system in 2008, the rise of oil prices that summer to $140 per barrel and the massive recession that took national unemployment to 10 percent.
While Prince William’s unemployment rate has certainly climbed, it remains below Virginiaand national levels. In January 2011, Virginia’s unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, and the national rate was 9 percent. CNNMoney, a joint project of CNN and Money Magazine, also said Prince William is 17th in the national list of counties that have seen the most job growth between 2000 and 2009.
Lateef based his claim about home-sale prices on numbers from Real Estate Business Intelligence, which is part of MRIS, a massive realty listing service and database covering the mid-Atlantic.
The average price of a Prince William home sale was $414,714 in November 2006, while the median price was $376,000. By February 2011 the average sale price was $260,830, and the median sale price was $228,925. That’s a $153,884 drop in average sale price and a $147,075 drop in median sale prices, straddling the $150,000decline Lateef mentioned.
But Stewart took office in an environment in which home prices were already falling in the county. Between November 2005 and November 2006 the average sale price fell 8.1 percent and the median sale price dipped 6 percent, data show. Again, home sales are private transactions. They are not governed or controlled by the board of supervisors.
And the county was hardly the only place in America to see a drop in home values.
I have never seen so many excuses made for someone in my life. These are the very issues that Corey Stewart has been using as reasons why he should be re-elected. Does the N & M suggest that the Lateef campaign allow these issues to go unchallenged?
House prices were highest in 2006 in this county, the year Corey Stewart took office. Where did housing prices fall from 2005 to 2006? A quick look at Land Rover says houses did not fall in price until the 2007 assessment.
Additionally, it remains an enigma why no one has challenged Corey Stewart on his constant misuse of crime statistics. He continues to say that violent crime has decreased by some absurd amount. I think this week it was 30%. We all wish that were the case. It is not.
Let’s hold everyone to the same standard. The N & M summarized their results:
Let’s review our findings.
Lateef’s raw numbers are mostly correct. Unemployment in Prince William is up 159 percent since November 2006, when Stewarttook office. But Lateef’s campaign video omits the facts that the county’s unemployment rate is well below the Virginia rate and even further below the national rate. Workers in Prince William are much more likely to have a job than the average American.
Prince William housing-sale prices are down during Stewart’s tenure by roughly $150,000.
But prices were already dropping when Stewart took office, and he has little control over home sales. Prices also dropped sharply across the Washington area.
We rate this claim Half True. Lateef’s figures are fine, but he wrongly uses them to imply that Stewart is responsible for financial problems that not only shook Prince William County, but the nation.
If Lateef’s numbers are correct, then there is nothing to argue with. The N & M is certainly free to argue the relevance of using those statistics but to give the truth o’metera half truth is disingenuous. I am waiting for Stewart to be held to the same standard. If N & M is going to show this kind of bias in favor of one candidate over the other, then they might as well just endorse Stewart and get it over with and forgo the false illusion of objectivity and fairness.
Stewart expects to win by comparing and contrasting Prince William County with its NoVA neighbors. For example, Prince William has relatively low taxes and relatively a low crime rate. Moreover, relative to inflation, our taxes have gone down. Nonetheless, county services have not suffered, and those are things over which the PWC Republican Board of supervisors can actual exercise some control.
Thus, N&M just point out something relatively obvious. Babur Lateef is complaining Stewart messed up things he cannot control. Do you really expect a county supervisor to fix nationwide problems? Instead of being biased, perhaps the N&M provided Lateef helpful advice. He needs to work on message. Instead of attacking Stewart, he needs to tell us what he can do better. If he is elected, what does he want to do?
If Lateef cannot do any better, you guys need to get another candidate.
@Citizen
I don’t suppose you have had a chance to catch Corey’s schtick yet? Its all about his contributions. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
Most importantly, Dr. Lateef told the truth and he caught our attention. That sort of levels the playing field.
http://www.pwcdems.com/
My take and the quotes are accurate.
I must say the use of the Chair’s Bully pulpit could get all of the parties (home owners, lenders, advisers, others) together and work on all those under-water mortgages and foreclosures. This is an almost no cost item that could have an huge impact, but I do think the Richmond Times Dispatch has other fish to fry.
The title of the RTD article should have been, “Stewart Re-arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic.”
Refer to our previous thread on Lateef and his video. When is the doctor going to tell us HIS views? At this point, everyone in Prince William County who cares, pretty much knows all there is to know about Corey Stewart. Lateef is not impressing me with catchy videos attacking the other candidate. He needs to tell us why he deserves our support, for reasons other than that he’s not Corey.
I knew where Gary stood, and Gary was telling us those views rather than just saying he’s not Corey. Time for Lateef to do the same.
A smart person, and I believe Dr. Lateef is, doesn’t let others determine his time schedule. Last weekend was his first campaign ad. Since you are in such a hurry, perhaps Bruce could arrange one of those check book in hand meet and greets?
Since Lateef doesn’t impress you, it sounds like you have got your man Corey who never ever shuts up in front of a mic. Last I looked, Bob Weir was also running.
And for the record, there has only been one video to my knowledge and it wasn’t an attack. Not being Corey is a real good selling point right now for those who feel it is time for change. Plus, Thanks to the N & M, Dr. Lateef is getting plenty of coverage.
The video was a teaser, and very effective. Who is everyone talking about? Who’s on the front page of the News & Messenger in not one, but two opinion pieces? Who has the Chairman on the defensive?
Is PolitiFact also going to check out the accuracy of the ads that have been running in the News & Messenger by the Independent candidate for Chairman?
It would seem to me if you are launching a video and “kicking off your campaign” you would be ready to tell PWC your views on issues. It just seems like common sense. I really don’t think it’s a matter of rushing Dr. Lateef. If he’s going to run, then start talking about your plan to better things, and your views on land issues and development.
Let’s not forget as Moon and Cindy mentioned there are two others running for the chair.
Mr. Wier-R and John Gray-I. Frankly, I want to hear from all three of these candidates. There’s very little time between the primary 8/23/11 and the election 11/8/11. Hopefully, they will get to talking on their views.
@Lafayette
I agree with Lafayette. Seems to me Lateef is just playing games. His election strategy could be to play off dislike of Corey and not reveal his true positions on anything local. Moon and others are correct that the more you say, the more there is to criticize. However, such a strategy makes you just another politician rather than a community leader, and diminishes your credibility among people who really care about Prince William County.
Moon is correct – Corey never met a microphone he didn’t like. As I wrote above, we know pretty much everything there is to know about Corey. John Gray is running some ads. Bob Weir is a long-time elected official in Haymarket with a track record and history of stating his views. I would like to hear more from John and Bob, however. We knew where Gary stood. Lateef is the unknown.
Lateef needs to stop playing games and run on something other than not being Corey Stewart.
Reporting back as promised. I had a lengthy meeting Wednesday morning with Dr. Lateef. I was favorably impressed with him personally and withhis knowledge of issues of importance to PWC citizens. I will not go into details because I agree with comments posted here and elsewhere that it is up to Dr. Lateef to define his position on issues and I am confident he will do so – all in good time.
I will say I am disappointed in the N&M on the campaign video. When before have they disected such campaign pieces? I ask the same as Moonhowler’s question as to whether the N&M will hold Stewart’s campaign pieces to the same standard? If so, Corey is either going to have to completely change his usual tactics or he’s in trouble. If not, shame on the N&M. How ’bout even holding Stewart’s “state of the county” PR pieces to the same standard. The last one was so full of cherry-picked data that, by comparison, if Lateef’s ad is half truth, Stewart’s “state of the county” address was almost pure “truthiness”.
Playing games? 🙄
Lateef accomplished what many politicians can only hope for in a single ad. He has people talking and wanting to know more.
All in good time. For those who can’t wait, I expect the campaign can use some help.
Pssst…I think he still has his medical practice. He might be seeing patients as we speak.
The Dems failed with Pandak against Stewart in ’07, and she was known to voters in the county. Dr. Lateef is not. So what makes the Dems think they can win with an unknown? It’s races like this one that make me so glad I don’t align myself with either party.
We don’t need to hear from Corey. His voting record speaks volumes, and then there’s his infactuation of microphones.
County Services haven’t suffered? Says who? Stewart? Or the same UVA survey that pooh-poohed immigration impacts. Take a look at OIT, DSS. Have you used a credit card yet at any county office to pay a tax, a fine, a fee??? Do you live here?
Selkie makes some excellent points.
Dr. Lateef has made resting on one’s laurels just a little more difficult.
Lafayette, so should the Democrats just fold up shop and we declare that PWC is just a red county? I don’t know what Sharon Pandek has to do with any of this.
I don’t belong to a party either, now. Thank goodness I don’t have to like so many do in other states.
Of course they shouldn’t close up shop! The Dems need a strong candidate, one that can win. The Dems lost in 07 and Pandak was their candidate. Therefore, I think she can be brought up. What’s your problem with her name being mentioned? Again, the fact is she was their loosing candidate last round of elections.
You may not belong to either party, but I’m sure you tend to lean one way more than the other.
The commercial was good for getting the base engaged but I don’t think it’ll cross the aisle and get votes.
I think a few posters here are on the mark. What is this candidate running on? What are his ideas? How will he do things differently? Is he just an anti-Corey candidate or does he have substance.
Having said that..the vid was done well. It’s gotten attention now time to bring up the substance.
Has anyone here stumping for Corey looked at their property values and taxes lately? I have! My house, since it was built 10 years ago, has been assessed at it lowest value and yet my taxes are at its highest!
Is Lateef an unknown, well, he has alot of work to do to allow resident to get to know him, but defending Corey is not productive, at all. Anyone here pay attention to the environment chapter, to the land use chapter? THESE are the issues that effect us all and Corey could care less what policies he puts in place as long as he gets financial support from the developers so he can feed his need to move on to the next political office. Isn’t that ENOUGH to want to stop him!
I can’t believe that people would get pissed about someone who is running in an election pointing out that Corey, not only NOT responsible for how great he espouses PWC’s financial state is right now, but instead runs an ad giving facts to the OPPOSITE of what Corey is wearing as his mantle of success. If Corey can brag about, unchallenged, how, under his leadership, there are no issues in PWC, what is Lateef running for??????
Marinm,
Agree on all points!
Compared to our neighbors, our property values have exponentially dropped in value. Not sure Corey REALLY wants to take that one on! Teachers getting payed less than surrounding counties, not a good platform either.
Pandak ran twice against Corey, 06 & 07, and lost both times. Why, in G-d’s name, would she eveb want to run again? In fact, being that Pandak WAS well known, had LOTS of county experience, just proves that even those qualifications are not a winning ticket.
I don’t know why being the cheapest place to live in the Northern Virginia region is so wonderful. Yes, Elena my home value stinks. We are hoping it goes up and we’ll sell and bail from here. I don’t mind paying a tad more for a nicer community.
I see that comments are running 2-1 on the other side against Corey….. (of course that’s only 3 comments 🙂 but from regular posters. Not pseudonyms that authors like to use – some many more frequently than others. I suspect some will pop up to change those results.
Wanting to know Dr. Lateef’s positions is not stumping for Corey. I don’t think Lafayette, I or anyone else has been promoting or defending Corey. If a candidate wants my vote, I want to know their positions on issues I care about. My issues include those Elena listed, and I’m in complete agreement with her on the Rural Crescent, comp plan amendments, etc. I know where Corey, Gary, Bob and (somewhat) John Gray think. Dr. Lateef is a complete unknown.
I don’t disagree that Lateef needs move from anti Corey to his positions, but to suggest that his video is unfair is, well, unfair to me. Corey is the one stumping all his accomplishments, if he so eager to take credit, he better damn well be willing to have it turned on him by his opponent, that is simply smart campaigning.
I’m gonna play this one straight here: Dr. Lateef has set the tone for this campaign season, and it should come as no surprise that it will be negative on both sides. How effective was the ad? Not very. There was nothing to contrast with. When using negative campaigning, you always want to close with a positive position to provide contrast with your opponent. Sure, the base probably loved this add, but “I” voters would have been left scratching their heads. Any traction gained with I’s was negated by the “Politifact.com” story. Instead of coming across as a “new voice”, he came out looking like “typical partisan politician”.
Corey Stewart is an incumbant. As such, he has a record to run on, but he also has a record to defend. Instead of attacking a position or a vote, Dr. Lateef hits him with class sizes and teacher pay? Anyone likely to vote would know that PWC has an elected Schoolboard that draws the lionshare of the county budget. They set teacher salaries, class sizes, etc. I think the housing and unemployment arguments were pretty weak. As the article points out, these are national issues, and when measured against the rest of the state and nation, PWC comes out looking pretty good. Can Corey Stewart claim responsibility for this? By trying to pin it on Corey Stewart, Dr. Lateef has put him in the position where he now can.
If I were advising this campaign, I would tell them there are several stronger (and more relevant) issues they could attack on, such as land use, attracting new businesses to PWC, illegal immigration, commitment to serving a full term, etc. that would resonate more, and would serve as better wedges.
But I am not advising this campaign, only an interested observer. I am interested to see the candidate’s first finance report, to see if someone is, and how much Dr. Lateef is paying them. If someone is, I suspect they are not from this area. I base this suspicion solely on the production quality (good) and effectiveness (bad) of the add. Other democrats have made the mistake of bringing in outside advisors for their local races, and their record has been dismall. Also, when taking the “throw more mud and see what sticks” approach, these campaign advisors often make their candidates look desperate & disengenous.
In honor of MLB opening day, I’m calling this ad “Fouled back, and out-of-play”.
What’s my problem? I have listened to people piss and bitch and moan about Corey for a year and when the Democrats have a candidate, all of a sudden there is this need for instant gratification.
Sharon Pandak has nothing to do with this race. She ran a good race and lost by about 9 points or 6,000 votes. Now, 4 years later…..she isn’t running and someone else is on the Democratic ticket.
My suggestion is every dog for himself. Those who are comfortable with Corey at the helm will vote for him. Those who are tired of hearing him trumpet about illegal immigration or ‘the scourge of abortion’ will choose another candidate. Those who have distain for him selling out to developers, 2 facing local businessmen, and breaking a signed pledge to guard the Rural Crescent will not even consider him as a candidate.
I will say that he did take Lateef’s video like a man. H/T to Corey on that one. I believe in giving credit where credit is due.
Election Day is light years away right now. Today is April 1. I count 7 full months to get to know Dr. Lateef, Mr. Weir, and Mr. Gray. Corey also has 7 full months to redirect his campaign. Perhaps he has other ideas for a leadership role in the county.
Nothing has to be settled this week for any of the candidates.
@Steve, I suggest rewatching the video. No where does Lateef say that Corey is at fault for these conditions. I thought it was an effective political ad simply becuase it has people talking.
I have seen negative campaigning before. I saw what happened last time there was a local election and what I saw done to the opposition ws unacceptable ad hominem attacks. What the candidates didn’t do to each other, local bloggers did, without regard to the politics of personal destruction.
Simply stating the conditions in the county during a specific time period is not an attack.
Now I am not saying that Dr. Lateef is the answer to PWC. But his ad did make me want to know more. This early in the game, that is an extraordinary feat. He caught my interest. Can he keep my interest? That remains to be seen.
Right now, I am more concerned over the position taken by the newspaper. It seems early to be choosing sides.
And, again, I have to say from the quotes in N & M, Corey took it with grace and good humor. I would say each of the gentleman scored a round on that one.
I NEVER said she had anything to do with this race. I was merely pointing out the Dem’s past failure with her and Dem’s failure as a whole. I guess she’s to be added to the list of sacred cows not to be spoken of ill on this blog.
I never commented on the video. It was funny, but said nothing. However, as I voter, I for one don’t want to see/hear funny. I want to know where a candidate stands on issue. If the Dems want to be taken seriously by I’s such as myself they would kick things off with something better than that video. Quite sophomoric in my mind and makes me think the D’s aren’t too serious about unseating the Chairman.
Steve brings up a very good point which I don’t believe escapes our minds, it just hasn’t been mentioned. We need elected officials that are willing to serve out the terms they were elected. Remember, last fall Corey said he would spend the rest of the year fighting illegal immigration statewide. I’m all for fighting illegal immigration. However, Corey has business here the county he needs to tend to, instead of galavanting the Commonwealth’s countryside.
I was surprised by the newspaper’s approach as well. I haven’t seen them challenge Stewart on his crime stats, housing recovery, or immigration “achievements” – at least not to the extent that they’ve challenged Dr. Lateef’s figures.
It does seem early to expect every detail to be fleshed out in Dr. Lateef’s campaign. Corey has a challenger within his own party. Where is the demand for details that differentiate between these two candidates?
I wouldn’t be too confident that the figures offered by Dr. Lateef won’t resonate with independents. Practically everyone in the county has seen his/her property values drop as taxes have remained almost the same. Equity in our homes determines many things – whether we can move, whether we’ll have to borrow from another source for our kiddos’ college tuition, whether emergency medical bills can be paid, whether we can retire as planned. Our neighboring counties didn’t see quite the fall in housing prices that we did. Of course, they didn’t have a Chairman who brayed about driving people out of the county at a time when the market was crashing.
Frankly, I’m delighted to see a Democrat come out swinging. That party has had a tendency to play nice and nice has cost them elections because you can count on negativity from the party of “no”. As an Independent, I like seeing a more equal contest and that doesn’t happen when you have one party that waits passively until the other party has thrown enough mud that its opponent is covered and has no traction.
I’m to the point that no one could be worse than Stewart. Other than posturing about illegal immigrants – nothing has really changed for the good. So some have been arrested and ICE have picked them up but honestly, what has changed since 2008. The crime rate has not dropped becuase of illegal immigrants – arrest statistic show that illegal immigrants have been involved in fewer than what 2% 3% of crimes. Most of PWC crime and in particular violent crimes have been committed by good ole Americans. And lately those that live right here in PWC. Again and again, PWC has become the CHEAPEST PLACE TO LIVE IN THE REGION – so hey all you criminals, PWC is where you can afford to live WORK and play.
PWC residental tax bill is on average over $1,300 hundred less than the region. When is low not enough? Ask Lexi Glover, ask those three babies from Bristow, ask a teacher with 35 kids in a classroom and a few of them shouldn’t be there, the growing decline of parent participation in the shools – check your PTO’s, look at the statistics of PWC School kids graduating and going to Ivy League schools (easy to scoff and dismiss, but look at the statistics – Harvard is free for bright kids with a family income of less than $60k), privately owned parks, years of street lighting issues, miserable home sales, the decline of the eastern part of PWC….when will people notice the local erosion? When they usually do – when it’s too late.
Thanks for sharing that information, Juturna. That basically hits the nail on the head. Cheapest isn’t always best.
After looking at all the redistricting I feel like relocating.
You wouldn’t have to go far – Warrenton isn’t bad…..I love Winchester and then there’s little Purcellville.
I beg to differ Steve. I am no “base” the ad appeals to. I am very independent, ESPECIALLY as it pertains to local politics, as are many people. Not only did I vote for Corey, not only did a have a sign the size of an interstate billboard in my yard, I also held a fundraiser for him. There are plenty of people that are sick and tired of Corey’s antics. Sick and tired of NO ONE forcing him to defend his “corey” propoganda. The statistics in the video ad are accurate, the messenger never disputed that from my perspective. If Corey wants to run espouse what great things he as done for this county, he better be ready to have his opponent “challenge” him on his “facts”. It’s about damn time!
Furthermore, if this is what you call negative, I am very surprised. Negative ad attacks, to me, tend to get very personal, Greg is the king of that tactic.
Steve, probably an equal number of people feel that the video was excellent. It didn’t get personal and it described things as they are in the county. He never said Corey caused them to happen. County policy does affect the how many of these things shake down, however, and we need to ask ourselves if things can be better under different leadership. Obviously some people here think things are fine. That’s ok too. Isn’t America great!
I don’t consider myself “base” either. Right now I see a fresh oponent who is unmarred by political dirt. I see a person who is willing to listen and to assess the needs of constituents. I don’t know if Dr. Lateef is a strong Democrat or a Blue Dog. He might just be filling a void because the Republican ticket is filled at the moment. Stranger things have certainly happened. I don’t know and I don’t care what his party is. I care about county policies and what is best for the county.
I think this is just a great opportunity for many of us to have a candidate that hasn’t been corrupted by politics as usual and favors for friends. After however many years of Corey, I can wait a while.
Yesterday morning Gary Friedman posted a comment here that got eaten by the blog. He alerted me and I had to go retrieve him out of spam of all places! My apologies to Gary.
His original comment is on the first page of this thread at around 8:51 am yesterday. I have cut and pasted it here since most of you won’t look back at prior posts:
Mr Stewart has yet to comment on the Bristow debacle – guess those kids or their parents would have to be here illegally to catch his attention.
He made it pretty clear the last time the Social Services people addressed the BoS that he/they knew how to make the best decisions for the county.
Juturna, you are making a sad, but accurate point. 3 kids have been neglected and yes, abused. Their parents looked to me like white Americans. Had there even been a hint that the parents were here illegally Stewart would have been on Faux News, decrying the illegal is illegal battle cry.
As it is, silence on Bristow, this time.
[…] Friday, I stumbled on this post, News and Messenger, your bias is showing at Moonhowlings. That post featured the video below and a review, PolitiFact report: Stewart […]
@Elena
I beg to differ Steve. I am no “base” the ad appeals to. I am very independent, ESPECIALLY as it pertains to local politics, as are many people.
The difference between you and the average “I” voter is the level of understanding and engagement on the issues. I am referring to the active, loyal base of the Democrat party. You must admit, much of the electorate is passively engaged at this point in the election cycle. As a student of the game, I am calling it as I see it. Dr. Lateef’s use of the stats (admittedly accurate numbers, but really unrelated to the job of the BOCS Chairman) was a swing for the fence, and I am saying it the net was more harmful to him, than it was for Corey. Again, I point to the fact that there was no positive contrasting ‘Dr. Lateef the Candidate” from his opponent. You ALWAYS provide this contrast, when you the candidate are putting the message out. You can have the “full-negative” adds go out, but those are usually put out by groups with names like ‘PWC Citizens for Prosperity” or some other aligned/proxey group.
@Moon,
‘Steve, probably an equal number of people feel that the video was excellent. It didn’t get personal and it described things as they are in the county. He never said Corey caused them to happen. ”
I am sure those that thought it “excellent” are exactly the base Dr. Lateef is looking to energize. Right now, only the enagaged base on either side is watching things. Did he flash big bold letters saying “It’s Corey’s fault”? No. But come on! The “Max-Headroom-esque’ cut of Corey repeatedly saying ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet” was 100% intended to link Corey to overcrowded classrooms, low teacher pay, and the decline in the real estate market. You might be able to make an intellectually honest argument that Corey Stewart contributed in a small way to the decline in real estate, by linking it to the rule of law resolution, but to try to pin classroom sizes and teacher on him? Really?