Orionids tonight. It is getting darn cold out there. Is everyone getting ready for Halloween?
We are on the look out for those stealing political signs. Sign stealing is the outward manefestation of how low political campaigning can go.
102 Thoughts to “Open Thread…………………………………..Friday, October 21”
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Blogroll
- 9500Liberty
- Bacons' Rebellion Blogspot
- Bearing Drift
- Blue Virginia
- Citizen Tom
- Counts of Monte Cristo. The
- Derecho, The
- Dixie Pig, The
- My Side of the Fence
- My Star Journey
- NARAL Pro-Choice VA Blog
- New Dominion Project
- Nova Common Sense
- NovaTownHall Blog
- One Libertarians's Point of View by Al Alborn
- Pete Candland's Blog
- Potomac Local
- Prince William Muckraker
- PW Conservation Alliance
- PWC Moms
- PWCPolitics.com
- PWCPolitics.com
- Red NoVA
- Shad Plank, The
- She the People
- State of NoVA, the
- The Jeffersoniad
- Townhall
- VEA Daily Reports
- VivianPaige
- WDGolden.com
- You, Me and the Lamp Post
Hmmmmm….the economy sucked…but, we didn’t know it because we all had jobs, inflation wasn’t bad, housing was a bubble, granted, but until it blows…..
Now….. how is THIS spending supposed to be an improvement? If gov’t spending THEN caused a hangover, what kind of hangover are we going to get from this?
You can’t just stop spending. Think what would happen, for example, if you cut the military budget in half. We would probably be in a depression.
Pat. Herve is correct. Slow and steady wins the race. Look at what happened after WWII when the deficit was even a greater % of GNP.
The NBC News segment on Timmy Tyrell will run tonight, Oct. 24, on Channel 4
at 7.
It’s that time again! http://www.cnbc.com//id/45019072
cargo – I would have preferred slow and steady instead of bust and boom. There are many who think the spending must continue, otherwise the sudden vacuum of Fed spending will toss us into a deeper Recession. I think the R’s in Congress are on board with this theory, as the spending cuts they are pushing, and the Budget they are pushing, delays the short term spending pattern that we are in.
It may be more accurate to call them the Cheney Tax Cuts. In May 2003, the Senate deadlocked 50-50 and Cheney had to go over and cast the deciding vote. In fairness, a number of factors created a perfect storm that together caused the problems we’re in now. The tax cuts, according to most of what I’ve read, only account for 20-25% of the deficit.
The data has certainly been better, although the skeptic in me would point out that the data is *always* better when we come out of a month with five Fridays (September). Oil and food prices are down roughly 23% off the highs, which will be a net positive for consumption. On the negative side China is slowing down, manufacturing output hasn’t been good and there have been 11 consecutive declines in the ECRI: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php. The ECRI has been known to head-fake you, but it needs to turn here as you can see it sitting on a key level.
Three key factors going forward – 1.) deflation of the credit bubble in China: exactly how bad is this going to be? 2.) Eurozone woes: how much of a haircut will banks have to take, and who’s exposed via swaps? and 3.) Another US downgrade – ratings agencies made it very clear that the absence of a debt reduction plan would result in another downgrade, and I don’t expect anything out of the so-called “super committee” that would meet with satisfaction so an additional downgrade remains a distinct possibility.
Bottom line is that there’s not enough evidence to be all-in on one side of this argument or the other. On one hand we have improving indicators and fairly good earnings, on the other we have geopolitical headwinds, sovereign debt and emerging markets bubbles that still need to pop. I’m inclined to say that we’ll kick the can down the road perhaps all the way to mid 2012, then things will get ugly fast. In environments like this you want to be on both sides of the market, option plays are particularly helpful here. Be the market-maker and sell premium to other participants around your core positions, this is not the time to be a hero.
“Another US downgrade – ratings agencies made it very clear that the absence of a debt reduction plan would result in another downgrade, and I don’t expect anything out of the so-called “super committee” that would meet with satisfaction so an additional downgrade remains a distinct possibility.”
Whaaaaa……? That can’t be true. The downgrades are caused by brinkmanship over debt negotiations, not out of control spending.
As to the “spending cuts”….WHAT spending cuts? Federal spending has INCREASED, not counting this supposed “jobs” bill.
I would like to see $1.00 cut. One dollar in true reductions. Take today’s spending and reduce it by one measly dollar. Not 1%, which is also minuscule, but 1 buck.
Bet that they can’t and won’t do it. Heck, let’s go for $0.00. Just freeze it.
Anyway, it looks like Virginia, and Richmond specifically, is getting good press:
From Instapundit:
RICHMOND, VIRGINIA: Silicon Valley Of The East? I don’t know about that, but I’ve noticed that more of my students see it as an attractive destination.
And his link to:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/10/startup-south-richmond-introduction/247195/
Government job losses a growing drag on recovery
By BY TOM RAUM – Associated Press | AP – 6 hrs
WASHINGTON (AP) — Conservative Republicans have long clamored for government downsizing. They’re starting to get it — by default.
Crippled by plunging tax revenues, state and local governments have shed over a half million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. And, after adding jobs early in the downturn, the federal government is now cutting them as well.
States cut 49,000 jobs over the past year and localities 210,000, according to an analysis of Labor Department statistics. There are 30,000 fewer federal workers now than a year ago — including 5,300 Postal Service jobs canceled last month.
http://news.yahoo.com/government-job-losses-growing-drag-recovery-172932127.html
@Cargosquid
Look for that trend in Virginia to reverse once the federal cuts take effect. A lot of those jobs are the result of federal government contracts.
@Cargosquid
I wouuld think that coming out of Iraq would provide a big cut.
Part of the problem with the super committee very well might be that 6 of the 12 are already pledged. That takes away and ability to negotiate.
The brinkmanship of last summer was very real and very verifyable.
@Starryflights And before you know it, we’ll have the kind of federal workforce that completely missed the signals pre-9/11!!! And the same politicians will be screaming for a ramp-up in the workforce!!!! And round and round we will go!!!!!
@Moon-howler
Yes, it is, but the idea that it caused the downgrade is arguable. Otherwise, this upcoming downgrade wouldn’t be coming.
With luck, the 6 Democrats won’t be so hard-headed and pledged to our economic destruction.
@Cargo, many economists said that the idea that we might default on our debts was the straw that broke the camels back. That was what spooked the stock market.
Now, is debt a problem, yes. I would take the fact that we just got rid of 2 huge money suckers as a starting place. And yes, sorry, but I do believe taxes might just have to go up a little. It can’t be all cut spending. Why? What you think it is critical might not be what the guy out in Iowa thinks is critical. Getting everyone to agree is a huge problem.
The alternative? Getting enough people just to kick their asses to convince them is the only other way to do it. I think we call that something else.
It just can’t be a slogan though.
If you got everyone in every govt dept to submit 10 ways their own dept could save money, it would probably work. Last time someone tried that, a local blog made huge fun of the idea and what they came up with. I expect people in depts probably know a lot more where the waste is than someone sitting out there in TV land.
As I’ve said before, I don’t mind a tax raise IF it was dedicated to paying down that debt. But any tax raise is ridiculous if we don’t cut spending first. A tax raise as mentioned here would be like changing from a measuring cup to a bowl to bail out the Titanic. Unless you fix the hole….
Also, a tax raise will be a further drag on the economy. Personally, I hope Obama rams one through before the election. And I want it to take effect before the election. Guess why.
Now this is chutzpah!
After the recent rhetoric and actions by Turkey supporting the Palestinian terrorists, HAMAS, Turkey asks…..Israel for help.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/turkey-requests-aid-from-israel-for-first-time-since-struck-by-devastating-earthquake-1.391963
@Cargosquid
Aya baya – Naughty, naughty!
More fun with our OWS friends!
http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2011/10/i-lost-my-virginity-today-i-was-amped.html
The downgrade is partially due to the in-ability of our government to function is a bi-partisan manner. The fact that they went to the edge of default, and repeatedly to the edge of government shutdowns – is giving the ratings agencies pause, and reasons why our credit rating should be lowered.
@Cargosquid
Apparently you haven’t read the polls from many different sources that indicate approval of increasing taxes on the very wealthy.
Meanwhile, who is your candidate? I know you all are gonna give Obama an ass whupping. Just wondering who was going to be doing it?
Pat.Herve
Thanks for saying. I feel like I am turning blue in the face. Cargo seems to think it is because no one listened to the tea party.
You’ve GOT to see Cain’s Web ads.
Unbelievable!
Oh yea
Old Pat Robertson, yes, THE Pat Robertson, is telling the Reps that they’re going to lose because of being waaaay to far out in right field. “the way you’re going at it, you’ll lose”,
@Punchak, If Pat Robertson tells them they are over the top, then they are WAAAAAAY over the top. Good grief. Jon Stewart mentioned that tonight.
I was speechless.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Bank of America Deathwatch: Moves Risky Derivatives from Holding Company to Taxpayer-Backstopped Depository
If you have any doubt that Bank of America is in trouble, this development should settle it. I’m late to this important story broken this morning by Bob Ivry of Bloomberg, but both Bill Black (who I interviewed just now) and I see this as a desperate (or at the very best, remarkably inept) move by Bank of America’s management
This move reflects either criminal incompetence or abject corruption by the Fed. Even though I’ve expressed my doubts as to whether Dodd Frank resolutions will work, dumping derivatives into depositaries pretty much guarantees a Dodd Frank resolution will fail. Remember the effect of the 2005 bankruptcy law revisions: derivatives counterparties are first in line, they get to grab assets first and leave everyone else to scramble for crumbs. So this move amounts to a direct transfer from derivatives counterparties of Merrill to the taxpayer, via the FDIC, which would have to make depositors whole after derivatives counterparties grabbed collateral. It’s well nigh impossible to have an orderly wind down in this scenario. You have a derivatives counterparty land grab and an abrupt insolvency. Lehman failed over a weekend after JP Morgan grabbed collateral.
But it’s even worse than that. During the savings & loan crisis, the FDIC did not have enough in deposit insurance receipts to pay for the Resolution Trust Corporation wind-down vehicle. It had to get more funding from Congress. This move paves the way for another TARP-style shakedown of taxpayers, this time to save depositors. No Congressman would dare vote against that. This move is Machiavellian, and just plain evil.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/10/bank-of-america-deathwatch-moves-risky-derivatives-from-holding-company-to-taxpayer-backstopped-depositors.html
Now most tea party idiots have no idea what it was I just posted above or why it is significant. Essentially this means that we taxpayers are going to have to bail out Bank of America’s depositers. If they understood that, they would be out marching in the streets.
Here is the home price index for Washington, DC.
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=26485&roottype=release&rootid=90
It stinks.
It looks like it might keep stinking for a while.
Good morning, Starry. You at work already?
COB report shows large income growth for top 1%.
Saw a CASA sticker on a car yesterday. So here’s a huge organization aid people breaking Federal laws, and no one cares. Nice. I wonder if the new stiff anti-loitering law they are wanting to pass in Maryland will affect the groups of ‘day laborers’, but I’m sure they’ll get a pass.
http://www.casademaryland.org/storage/documents/Obama_Policy_Advisory.pdf
SA are you sure you didn’t see a CASA (court appointed special advocates) sticker for Manassas?
http://www.casaofgpw.org/
Starry makes a rather salient point. For interested parties, BAC trades at just 1/4 of what they claim on their (rotten) “books.” This means that the market thinks that BAC is bankrupt three times over.
Something is rotten, indeed.
Cato, do you consider yourself ‘tea party?’
Right now, I don’t have a candidate. I like Cain. I like Perry. But I’m not stuck on them. Its too early in the race to decide. I like different points from each of them.
I do believe that any one of them would be an improvement on the current President.
This makes more sense than your claim of Republican or Tea Party obstinacy. Moon. Both parties were playing brinkmanship because that’s their job. My problem is that they did it without accomplishing anything. NO cuts were made, spending increased, and they fobbed off the their responsibility on a stupid “super committee” structured to fail. Cutting 1 trillion over 10 years is hard? They can’t find 100 billion per year?
Well, actually, not if the President keeps presenting fake jobs bills that spend 453 billion dollars….. so I see their problem.
And they want to take 600 billion from the military….yeah…that figures.
Lets have a real spending cut, not a baseline reduction in spending increases.
Let them cut 100 billion out of next year’s bud…oh…wait. They can’t The Democrats continue to refuse to fulfill their oath of office and the GOP are letting them. The last budget deal that supposedly saved us, lets the Senate “DEEM” to have passed the next two budgets.
And yet, you don’t seem upset about THAT chicanery. Do you think that the ratings agencies DON’T see that BS?
“Now most tea party idiots have no idea what it was I just posted above or why it is significant. Essentially this means that we taxpayers are going to have to bail out Bank of America’s depositers. If they understood that, they would be out marching in the streets.”
Thanks for the insult, Starry I just consider the source.
We’re done with marching. We’ll leave that to your buddies, Starry. The only way to fix this is to get the corrupt politicians out. And the only ones wanting that is the Tea Party. One thing the TP agrees with the Occupy group: Re-instate Glass-Steagall.
And if there is a way to prevent what the bank is doing….stop it. Otherwise, its legal. Who is it that wrote the law stating that this was legal? Hold them accountable too.
Actually it was those voting no who brought about the brinkmanship. I might not be a spring chicken but I am not yet senile. Think what you want to think. You have convinced yourself that your peeps did the right thing. Meanwhile, I will never forgive your peeps. I wish I could send them the bill.
Do you really think that Cain or Perry could win in a general election? Bridge for sale time.
Those voting “NO”. Ok. Um…it was the Senate Dems voting no. It was the refusal to compromise. But, go ahead…blame us. I know the Democrats do no wrong. Nothing is ever their fault.
Cain and Perry? Sure? Obama did. If we elected him, we’ll elect anybody. Remember, at this time during the last election….Hillary was the shoo-in.
The people *I* am referring to were in the House of Representatives.
And yea, they can do wrong. A couple of them did do some wrong. But the vast majority of wrong doers in this case were pledged Republicans.
Eh, more like a Tea Party sympathizer. I probably disagree with most on social issues and am probably more radical on fiscal (if you’re too big to fail, you’re probably too big to play in the street by yourself and need to be broken up)
@Cato
You might also be called a Democrat thinking radical on fiscal.
I don’t think you have to wear a three cornered hat to think that. I didn’t think you were one of the social folks.
private message. Yes. the area has been like that for years. Why did you move there? It was obvious 15 years ago. Buyer beware.
I worked there for many years.
No, the sticker had the catch phrase “speak out” or something to that effect under the logo.
dunno then what that is all about. I guess everyone has a right to free speech, even if we don’t like it.
This is one of the court advocacy slogans: Little voices cry out, who will help?