Place your bets here. Who will win the Iowa Caucus? What happens to the losers? I am not sure how this all factors in to the final product. Steve, how does this work?
How much do good looks have to do with elections now? I know that no one wants to be thought of as that superficial, but how do you turn off that impulse to not pull the lever for the person who is most pleasing to the eye. And speaking of eye candy, which candidate is the best looking? Michele Bachmann shouldn’t count because she is the only female and she is an attractive woman. Her husband is a lucky man. (MEOW)
What topic will be considered the most important to voters? Immigration, employment, war, economy, values, abortion?
Is anyone offended by the amount of money spent just on this mini campaign or any campaign in general?
Who will drop out after Iowa?
Obama will win in Iowa.
Oh…you mean the Republicans……well, since Cain isn’t there, the American people lose. 😉
Probably Romney, in all seriousness. Newt was the only real challenger and he has imploded. Perry lost all momentum too early. Santorum…. maybe….but that’s all he’ll win. Paul…2nd place. I think Paul is going to come in 2 or 3 in most of the races. Americans are fed up with government and Paul is the lightning rod. Unfortunately, he’s ……. also not a great candidate.
I predict that Romney is going to be the candidate. He’s the one with a national organization, the one that the establishment wants, the one that the press wants.
The other candidates are getting hit by the left and the GOP establishment.
@Cargosquid
Iowa’s importance is minimal. It’s the first race, but has a very poor track record of predicting the enventual nominee. I’d also say it’s impossible to call, as some polls I have seen indicate 40% are undecided. Newt is far from finished. He leads in SC and FL by large margins, however, if Romney finishes 1st or 2nd in Iowa, and takes NH, he will have momentum going into SC. It doesn’t hurt that the SC Governor has endorsed him. If Paul wins in Iowa, look for a little surge, and then a decline. His numbers are dismal in SC and FL. What these early primaries do is cull the back of the pack. A poor finish and support and money dry up quickly, as someone would rather back a winner, rather than an “also-ran.” Also watch for the howls of “The Establishment is foisting another candidate on us…” These complaints make me want to vomit. It takes 2 things to win a primary: Money and votes. The voters pick who they want. They also send money to the person they want. “The Establishment” doesn’t pick the nominee. The majority of GOP voters do. If your guy (or gal) doesn’t win, it’s because they couldn’t build sufficient support to do so, not because some mythical “establishment” used some Vader-esque political “Force” to silence some upstart.
The Establishment helps in picking. They have great influence. When they they’re not attacking a candidate, lackluster support, inadequate defense, and just plain ignoring a candidate can doom them.
A lot of Palin’s, Newt’s, and Cain’s problems came from the establishment GOP. It is possible to overcome those negatives, but, lack of support is still a hurdle. The Tea Party is NOT popular among establishment GOP because they know that THEY are the targets of the Tea Party reform efforts.
@Cargo, however, everyone wants to blame the non-republicans for it. I have seen very little attack from Democrats. Why should they go to the effort? The Republicans are doing quite well at cannabalizing themselves.
The mainstream republicans will prevail because that is the real continual source of money for the most part. (looking nationally of course)
Reagan won over the mainstream. I notice that the candidates who seem to be doing best, are the ones focusing their attacks on Obama. This appeals to the mainstream. Why would a candidate who constantly bashes the mainstream appeal to the mainstream?
1)Romney
2)Santorum
3)Ron Paul
Perry, Cain and Gingrich dropped the ball more than once themselves, but
the pro-Romney PAC attack ads have been often and brutal.
Observations:
1) If you have three major goals when you get in office – remember them
or at least write them on your hand on debate night. Don’t look like
a total idiot on national TV. Oops.
2) If you have a long running affair with a woman and you run for U.S.President
in 2012 the news hounds WILL find out about it. Not to know that disqualifies
you to even be ambassador to Vecki-Vecki- Veckistan.
3) If you have been paid big, big bucks to serve as “historian” for a
business that helped wreck the American economy – many people
will be be a might upset and consider you a bigger part of the problem
than the solution.
@ Big Dog, it didn’t seem to hurt John McCain any. He snagged himself an heiress after his wife had waited for him, raised his kids, and been involved in a near fatal automobile accident that left her somewhat disfigured.
Mrs. McCain, who I don’t inherent;y dislike, had the bad taste to get on TV and reminisce about their courtship before he was introduced at the REpublican convention. You know, just let it go if those are the circumstances. I don’t necessarily think every marriage is forever but when you are part of a homewrecking machine, just have the good taste not to bring it up.
After all the hoopla over Bill Clinton, I highly resented the Republicans just thinking they were going to breeze through McCain and now some with Newt. No. And I don’t want to hear about perjury. That’s just one of those things people lie about.
McCain could be forgiven probably. Newt just has played zipper games too often to be taken seriously.
Excellent analysis, Big Dog.
The “Establishment” gets the money rolling into the candidate of choice. Many of the high profile donors will not give to a candidate, unless they are blessed.
It also cracks me up that Newt is playing the whole “I’m anti-establishment, the establishment is attacking me” card… Newt, you are a political insider, who favors big government solutions. Not saying I wouldn’t support you, as I’ll take any of the GOP candidates over a Democrat any given Tuesday, but gimme a break. Romney has never held Federal office. The only other candidate who can make that claim is Hunstman. Even the “Liberepublican” Ron Paul can’t claim to be “outside the beltway”. This whole “I’m not part of the establishment” argument being made by all the candidates is a canard.
@steve
canard = crock of crap in this case. There is no bigger insider than Newt.
You really are republican through and through. I don’t think I could ever be that loyal to a party, considering some of the toads both parties have offered up as candidates.
@Pat.Herve
And who, exactly, might that be, this cycle? Ron Paul has done a fair amount of fundraising. Will you claim he’s “establishment”? The fact is, I hear it too often; I’d support candidate x, but I don’t think he/she can win. And for the record, I, Steve Thomas, sometimes accused of being part of the “establishment”/ sometimes accused of being part of the Conservative/ultra-conservative wing of the party, am at this point “undecided”.
Paul/Kusinich 2012! Lets get both of the lesser evils! If they touch, they’ll explode!
@Steve Thomas
I think the Establishment wants Romney. He has Party support in many states, he had a good showing last time around (like McCain in 2000, Reagan in 76) – so, the Establishment thinks it can go along with him. THey know they will not get along with Newt or Paul.
Ron Paul had more military donors than all of the others. I believe a lot of the “change you can believe in” crowd that got duped by Obama in 2008 think Paul is the only candidate that wouldn’t be a slightly different shade of business as usual in Washington.
I heard his son say that the majority of their donations came from military folks. What does that say about our military? I am just not sure.
My man Paul is going to do it in Iowa. What’s really irritating me something fierce is how Fox News is so committed to the concept of perpetual war that they really disrespect Ron Paul. What I like is that it is most of the voters that Fox is pissing off. The Republican mainstream is so committed to the status quo, and they think that because Obama is the worst President in the nation’s history (save maybe for Jimmy Carter) that they’ve got it in the bag. Where are these Tea Party morons now that the Republican party and the mainstream media is feeding them non-stop perpetual war foreign policy BS? Do the Tea Party idiots think that paying for never-ending wars isn’t going to bust our nation just as fast as entitlements? Maybe this will be the year that folks wake up and realize that no matter how bad Obama is, that the Republican party is just another flavor of awful!
Illumination! Pokie has seen the light.
Its the same group who thinks that taking away all the birth control and access to birth control is going to end abortion.
Every time some butt-head on Fox News says “If Ron Paul wins Iowa, then it just means that Iowa voters don’t matter anymore”, I’m gonna throw something at my TV. Oh, and here’s Karl Rove. I better be careful..I can’t afford to buy another TV.
So for true conservatives, the choice is like follows: We have Cancer (Debt). Do we want to put a bullet in our heads (Obama) and get it over with quick, or go through Chemo for torturous years knowing that it has a 5% chance of ultimately saving our lives (Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Bachman, etc)
The Wonder-Twins!
@pokie
There isn’t enough tin foil in the world for that ticket and Emma doesn’t have enough time to make all those hats that would be needed.
Poor Michele Bachmann. She quaffed down all those corndogs and sticks of fried butter in every corner of Iowa and all she’s got to show for it is dimples in her butt-cheeks.
For the Republican Party Ron Paul in Iowa in 2012 is like Hamas in the Palestinian election in 2006 … love democracy until it doesn’t turn out the way it was supposed to when it was planned (damn you free will).
Other than the fact he has a quarter-billion dollars and a great head of hair, it has to suck being Mitt Romney. His party seems to have the same affinity for him that I’d have for a Josh Groban concert … if my only choice was buy a ticket to the Groban show or get kicked in the nads, I’d stall as long as I could and then grudgingly buy a ticket, but I’d be wishing the whole time I had another choice.
If it looks like Ron Paul might actually make it to the big dance against Obama I’m buying stock in EZ Wider.
@Moe
Just out of curiosity, what do you suppose Rick Perry’s butt looks like. He was quaffing down a few of those fried butter sticks also. Let’s not be chauvanistic. I am sure his butt looks just as bad. Now…for the thought you didn’t ever want to have…I am going to say the N(ewt) word…How about old Salamander himself. Eye of Newt and toe of frog…which candidate has a butt like a hog? Do you think Newt has dimples?
I wouldn’t vote for any of those side show circus freaks. You’d think after three years of regrouping the repugs could have found a viable candidate by now.
I almost snorted Diet Dr. Pepper when I heard John King saying that the GOP should ignore Paul to it’s peril. I think he gets it.
I can’t watch the coverage tonight as the better half wants to watch ‘Teen Mom’ on MTV.
Bachmann hasn’t gotten fat. She’s still pleasant to look at. Not FoxNews reporter quality but not Nancy Grace either.
Perry who? Is he gone yet? Huntsman’s numbers make me giggle as well.
Huntsman’s numbers baffle me because he is really the most conservative of the candidates in the traditional sense of the word.
He is by far the most qualified in many respects.
Marin, why don’t you get a second TV?
Michele Bachmann looks darn good for her age and she seems to be a pleasant person. She doesn’t shriek like others might have been on a ticket in 2008. Her politics are extreme for me but I respect her efforts and tenacity.
@Moon-howler
Let me preface this by saying this is strictly a guess. Perry, I suspect, could turn coal into diamonds in the cleft of his butt-cheeks. Gingrich, on the other hand, would resemble 100 pounds of gloppy biscuit dough crammed into a pair of petite sized pantyhose … and with about the same skin tone … but I defer to Calista. And as for Bachmann (and Palin), I can only imagine (not saying I do … or don’t). But, humor aside, this primary season has been interesting if not particularly encouraging for the future of the country. It is interesting that a majority of military personnel and a majority of the 30 and under group (the demographic that is not contracting) are solidly for Paul.
Broadside. heh
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/paul-taunts-huntsman-109497.html
CNN projects Paul to finish third in Iowa.
@Morris Davis
I should have known better than to try to gross Moe out.
One giant EWWWWWWWWWWW at his description of Newt. I don’t want to think about Newt’s anything.
Well, I was right. Mitt won.
By 37 votes.
He spent millions. He’s been campaigning for years. His previous rating was 23%.
Its still at 23% and he effectively tied someone that spend $30,000 on ads, Rick Santorum. And now he’s getting the kiss of death. McCain is going to endorse him.
Santorum pulled it off. Paul came in third. Of course, a HUGE chunk of Paul’s supporters were Democrats crossing over…so we’ll see how that plays. Gingrich is at 13% of the vote, 4th place. I think that he’s pissed at Romney so much that he wants Romney to lose more than he wants to win. Rick Perry is going back to Texas to “reassess.”
How about Paul/Perry?
Who do you guys think that Paul would pick as a running mate? Or, well, any of the candidates?
Romney could pre-empt Obama and pick Hillary as VP. 😉
New Hampshire is next.
Romney will pick whoever Bain Cap tells him to pick. He’s a quarter-billionaire commoner … I heard his son talks about one time when he dug a fence post hole … unless being a commoner won’t get him elected, in which case he’ll be whatever you want him to be.
A lot of young people voted for Paul mainly to support his opposition to the wars, the bid Laden raid, and pot legalization.
Too close to call. Its between Romney and Santorum.
I guess everyone but Huntsman got a turn at being first. Is there a bible verse about the last will be first?
So who voted for Santorum? Is that the values vote?
It’s 2:02 and Santorum is leading Romney by 4 votes.
Huntsman is last. Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Santorum.
Help me understand what happened to Bachmann. Is it, in the end, the woman thing? She doesn’t seem a bit wackier than Santorum or Perry. They all seem the same to me. In fact, if you held a gun at my head I probably couldn’t tell you one thing different other than Perry is a little more permissive about illegal immigrants.
Gingrich and Paul have their own brand of ‘uniqueness.’
I just don’t get how Bachmann has fallen so far out of favor without major gaffes and scandals. Shine some of that republican sunshine on this old brain, please.
Romeny was declared the winner of the Iowa Caucus around 3 am. There was an 8 vote difference.
Hmmmm….
I may not always agree with you, but I simply MUST hand it to you…..there is a certain poetry to your word choice that I am strangely drawn to. No matter what the politics, I admire it when someone can use words to paint a picture! That’s a talent that not everyone is blessed with.
@Moon-howler
I, too, wonder about Bachmann. She’s bright, a good speaker, seems to float around people wtih ease. Not that I’d ever vote for her, but I can’t help wondering about her evangelical backers. Is Santorum more evangelical than Bachmann?
Anyway, I do admire Bachmann’s spunk. Vice President maybe?
@Punchak
I can’t figure out why she fell out of favor. Yes, what is it about Santorum that made everyone hold back for so long. Both Santorum and Bachmann seem to have similar values. I think he is Catholic and she is protestant evangelical. Maybe someone can come along and enlighten us.
Huntsman continues to insult the electorate. He has stated previously that anyone skeptical of anthropogenic global warming is anti-science. Yesterday he defended his absence in Iowa, stating that ‘They pick corn in Iowa and pick presidents here in New Hampshire.’
I have not run any presidential campaigns, but it seems pretty clear that offending voters in your own party is not likely to be a winning approach.
@Kelly3406
“I have not run any presidential campaigns, but it seems pretty clear that offending voters in your own party is not likely to be a winning approach.”
And thus you have McCain’s election results of 2008.
@Moon-howler
Bachmann fell out of favor because she stayed too “one note.” Her attacks on the other candidates never changed, and she did not shift gears to attack Obama. Its also her personality and voice. It does not resonate with the voters. Personally, I find her voice irritating. In the same vein, I find Santorum to be “charisma challenged.” He doesn’t come across as presidential.
Santorum won Iowa because he put in the shoe leather. He hit EVERY precinct. Some, more than once.
@Cargo, except Santorum didn’t win unless the numbers changed since 3 am this morning. He couldnt get anyone to even ask him questions during the debates.
If Bachmann’s voice bothered you, what did Palin’s do to you? She(Palin) made me want to stick ice picks in both ears.
So what you are telling me is that its just her entertainment value and it has nothing to do with policies? Well, I asked. It sure beats me.
Santorum just said that he appealed to the God and guns folks and everyone cheered so I am taking him at his word. He also threw in a big Thank God after he said that.
Bachmann has called a press conference and has cancelled her trip to South Carolina.
Newt apparently made a real ass of himself last night. I didn’t hear it. I watched Harry Truman instead. There are so many parallels between then and now.
@SlowpokeRodriguez
Thanks, Slow. I appreciate it very much.
@Moon-howler
I don’t believe gender was a negative for Bachmann (nor is it for Palin), in fact I think it was a positive. If you took the same ideas and put them in someone that looked like Bella Abzug I suspect we’d all be going “Michele (or Sarah) who?” I think Bachmann fell victim to the same thing as Rick Perry (who is probably a man of a certain age that some women look at and think they wouldn’t boot him out of the sack for eating saltines … if you know what I mean) where the exterior packaging and the type-A persona garnered initial attention that then gave way to the shallow substantive interior. In other words, it wasn’t gender that stood in the way, it was dumb that did her (and him) in. It’s one thing to have controversial policy views like Ron Paul, but it’s another to just say something that everyone knows is just plain old stupid. I’ve advocated before for a Bachmann-Palin book of world history and geography based on their persistent habit of getting it wrong. An example the other day was Perry saying we need to build the Canadian pipeline so we can get ourselves off of foreign oil. Duh. It is interesting that we have never had a female President where England, India and Pakistan, among others, have had female leaders. Perhaps Cantor’s wife?
I kept hearing how good looking Rick Perry is. I have not talked to one woman who thinks so. Strange. He is just swarmy looking.
I had not heard about getting ourselves off foreign oil. Well, when you are from Texas….
Cantor’s wife worked. I am glad Punchak brought her up. I was prepared to hate her on general principles.
Col. Davis,
You know as well as I that this is impossible to determine. The only accurate claim Ron Paul, the Press or anyone else can make is that Ron Paul has received more donations where the person donating listed their occupation as “Service Member”. As members of the military make up less than 1% of the total electorate, they have really become a political totem poll. Paulites have been known to use political guerilla tactics since 2008, to make their candidate appear more popular than he really is. Now this is not to say that it is not indeed a fact that active duty military do donate more to Ron Paul than any other candidate. I am saying that is is 1) immpossible to verify, and 2) if it is true, it really isn’t a measure of the overall popularity of the candidate. Since our military is not “unionized” this does not constitute an endorsement of Ron Paul. How does it break down? Do enlisted “rankers” donate to Paul, with Staff NCO’s and Officers donating to a different candidate? We don’t know. As far as the grassroots guerilla tactics go, I know how this game works, because I have played it myself.
Re: Huntsman…you are spot on. He comes across as an arrogant elitist. Not arrogant like Newt in his “I have the highest IQ in the room, professorial style”, because he DOES have the highest IQ in the room. No, Huntsman comes across as “nobility”. Mitt has made a bajillion dollars, but still comes across as a family man, same with Santorum (who hasn’t made a bajillion dollars). Paul comes across as “your crazy uncle”. I don’t agree with the characterization of Perry or Bachman as intellectually challenged. I think Bachman feels like she is at a disadvantage because she is a woman, and try’s too hard to come across as “tough”. Perry tried to come across as having the “Texas Swagger”, which worked for GW. For Perry, not so much.
Called it! – comment #6.
Just knew Romney would end up number one by eight votes!
Of course.
@Cargosquid
If Mitt Romney is the nominee, look for him to choose a Southern Governor from a southern swing state, like our own Governor, to balance the ticket. I’m not sure who Paul would pick. I think he thinks the other candidates are “too mainstream”, and doesn’t care about balancing the ticket. I could see him picking some better known libertarian. As crazy as it may sound, Paul/Kucinich is not out of the realm of possibibility, considering it’s Ron Paul. I hope he’s not that crazy.
@Steve Thomas
I suppose I am just a snob but I believe that is what appeals to me about Huntsman. In a sea of what appears to be anti-intellect, he and Romney are refreshing. I don’t think Bachmann is dumb either. I know the credentials needed to get into William and Mary and I don’t think they take academic charity cases. However, she does a great job of down talk.
We all had this discussion about a year ago. I don’t want a leader who is as dumb as I am. I want one smarter than I am. I don’t want a leader I have to fill in words for as I watch my TV. Yea, Paul is your crazy uncle. Santorum should have gone to the seminary and stayed there. Slap a collar on that guy.
I just feel sorry for Rick Perry. He is so out of his element. I felt sorry for Santorum also. Newt? I almost feel a little pity for him because he just doesn’t realize he is an obnoxious, arrogant pain in the ass and everyone hates him. Even now, he still doesn’t realize it. Whaat will he ever do when he comes face to face with his own hubris? I can almost envision his face.
Right now, he is so personally pissed off at Romney he is splotchy. He got swiftboated. He doesn’t understand that someone like John Kerry might also feel his pain. Its only mean and telling lies if it is done about him. He doesn’t understand how nasty swiftboating someone is in general. He has no empathy for the other guy.
@Steve Thomas
I don’t think for one minute that Paul is going to get the Republican nomination. But if he did, he should run with his son. Paul and Paul.
How about Jindle for Romney? Jan Brewer to make things not quite as patrician? (now that was mean of me.) Cantor? I think he needs someone from Congress actually.
Maybe he will try to pull in Sarah Palin again. [ducking and running]
I don’t know who told Perry that he should run for president.
He simply doesn’t come across as presidential. He’s probably a lot of
fun at the neighborhood 4th of July picnic or a New Year party.
I feel sorry for him too, Moon.
@Steve Thomas
I can tell you from personal experience that 1.) Huntsman doesn’t come off that way in person, having had the chance to speak at length with him on a number of occasions and 2.) I’d put his intellectual abilities up against Newt’s any day of the week.
@Cato the Elder
I agree – though I’ve never met Huntsman. He doesn’t sound elitist to me -just practical and knowledgeable. I have no idea how Newt as the great intellectual materialized. He’s a windbag and horn-tooter. That doesn’t make him smart.
According to the WaPo, Perry is still in and Bachmann is out.
@Moon-howler
There are rumors that Romney is going to tap our governor as VP.
@Moon-howler
I was speaking about Bachmann in general terms and putting out possibilities why she didn’t catch on….part of that is her voice. I like Palin’s voice. Bachmann’s political tactics, her answers in the debates, her personality and her looks all combined to keep her from catching on.
Santorum didn’t win. But tying…or losing by 8 votes, to a man that’s been campaigning since 2006 and who got LESS votes this time than last….looks like a victory. But I don’t think that he can continue to win. I think New Hampshire will be completely different.
@Cato the Elder
Unfortunately, Hunstman won’t get to meet enough voters to show his “softer side”. He comes across as “Nobility” in the media. Remember, they pick corn in Iowa…. As far as his intellectual ability, I’m not saying he’s not intelligent. He didn’t get to where he is by being stupid. What I am saying is Newt is a tested genius. Has the IQ score. Of course that hasn’t stopped him from stepping in it from time to time.
Did Huntsman really say that? ho ho ho. I am liking him better and better. He will never go anywhere. People want their candidates to be more like them. That was the appeal of Harry Truman. (and Reagan, and Bill Clinton and George Bush) It didn’t hurt Bill Clinton at all that he sounded like a brilliant Bubba.
I have known really smart people who were dumb as pig tracks. Newt is smart. He just isn’t a good kind of smart.
They are more than rumors.
@Steve,
What I hear confirms what you are saying. Just out of curiosity….should that happen, will he stay on as governor and campaign? Kaine took over DNC. McDonnell will be off campaigning. I feel like we continually get short changed by the system.
@Cato the Elder
Since when has intellectual abilities meant anything?
Remember Adlai Stevenson?
@Steve Thomas
It’s possible to have a high IQ score and still be dumb!
@Steve Thomas
Newt> “a tested genius”. ????????????????
If that’s so, heaven help us from geniuses (geniusi?)
Who was that?