| M. Romney 38.1% |
|---|
| R. Paul 23.5% |
| J. Huntsman 16.7% |
| N. Gingrich 9.8% |
| R. Santorum 9.7% |
| R. Perry 0.7% |
|---|
| B. Roemer 0.4% |
| M. Bachmann 0.1% |
| G. Johnson 0.1% |
| H. Cain 0.1% |
New Hampshire primary is over. Mercifully. It was short, sweet, and pretty much to the point. Mitt Romney came out the clear winner by nearly 15 points with Ron Paul in a distant 2nd. Jon Huntsman finally registered on the radar.
Can we pretty much count on Romney being the Republican candidate? What if Ron Paul runs on a third party ticket, which I hear he is planning to do. What impact will that have on the overall election?
If Ron Paul runs on another party ticket…Rand Paul will either have to disown that effort or will risk a LOT of political capital. I don’t think Ron is going to run on a third party ticket if only to prevent it from hurting his son’s political career.
Paul has a lot of young people followers. My g-daughter tells me kids love him because he wants to legalize marijuana and he is so anti war. If that is true, where will all those young voters go?
Will there be a third party from anyone?
Changes in how delegates are awarded (proportional vs. winner-takes-all) represent the possibility that the race remains competative far longer than in previous years. That said, a lot of this will be determined by how long those in the back of the pack can maintain support and raise funds going forward. I see Rick Perry as the next to drop, as he’s pretty much bet the farm on the SC primary. He has to win or come in a strong second to survive, and polls would indicate this will not happen. I don’t think Huntsman will last past SC either, inspite of his #3 finish last night. He’ll certainly be out after FL.
@Steve,
I don’t see Huntsman being a big hit in SC either. I never speculate on Florida though. It is a political enigma to me.
I can’t see Ron Paul running third party, for the very reason you cite: He doesn’t want to mess up chances for Rand to run at some point in the future.
The emergence of Santorum at Gingrich’s expense has ensured a Romney nomination.
Santorum is a man who brought his dead baby home and introduced his other kids to it. He is not electable. He is known primarily for his homophobia.
So, the GOP will offer is a vacuous pretty boy whose positions shift with the wind. I’ll vote third party this time, for sure.
If Huntsman’s father thinks he has a chance to win he may write his PAC a $10Million check
to keep his chances going and that could be a big change to Huntsman’s prospects. I wouldn’t vote republican but I think Huntsman is a good guy and we could do much worse for a president.
Huntsman has some pretty decent things going for him. I never say never. If I were to vote Republican, Huntsman would be the guy who could probably lure me to the dark side.
@Bear
@Rick Bentley
Will there be a third party to vote for?
Who out of the R line up would you even consider?
@Moon-howler
I root for Huntsman because, should Obama be defeated (it’s possible)
I would want a good man in his stead.
If the Gingrich, Santorum and Perry voters would come together and select one of the those three to support, they would have enough votes to defeat Romney. The problem is, they are so divided among themselves.
Ron Paul will not be a factor in S Carolina where voting is restricted to registered Republicans. But he is not likely to drop out, or go third party, but he could stay in all the way to the convention where he and his supporters can make a lot of noise. The Republican party is going to have to deal with this guy somehow, and his supporters. He can no longer be ignored.
I think Romney will have this wrapped up by month’s end.
@Starryflights
Well stated, Starry. I cannot believe that I find myself agreeing with you.
I too am resigned to Romney having this wrapped up vey quickly. I am relieved however that Huntsman and Paul are unlikely to get the nomination.
Kelly, I am curious what you find unacceptable about Huntsman.
Huntsman is very enigmatic. If one studies his record or reads his policy statements, he sounds very good, very refreshing. But the instant he opens his mouth, he manages to completely turn me off. I agree with many of his stances, but that is completely over-shadowed by his poor leadership qualities. He seems more suited to be a member of cabinet (Secretary of State?) than to be president.
He reminds me of McCain in that he delights in poking conservatives in the eye. It is interesting that he won the majority of the Democratic vote in the Republican N.H. primary. That probably has less to do with his specific views and more with a campaign seemingly designed to win the non-conservative vote. His appeal to the moderate and liberal contributors to this blog seems to confirm where the majority of his support lies. Just as for McCain in 2008, such a candidate may appeal to left-leaning voters in primaries, but in the end they will vote for the Democrat.
It seems very unlikely that his is a winning strategy.
That seems almost fair. @ Kelly
You understand though that most of the moderates and liberals who like him probably wouldn’t vote for him? Do you think it is strange that the conservatives just don’t seem as flexible as the moderates and liberals?
Let me speak for myself as a moderate….I like him because he isn’t anti science and because when he opens his mouth, he doesn’t sound like a moron like some of the candidates have. He doesn’t spew sound bites either. He has the experience in China. I probably wouldnt vote for him because I tend to vote for pro choice candidates.
Could I live with him as a president? Yes. Romney probably also. They come across presidential and don’t make me want to apologize for them. I can’t say that about the others. Newt is just mean and unlikeable and flawed. Not dumb though. Paul is way too off beat. Bachmann, Santorum and Perry live on another planet that doesn’t believe in science or reflect anything close to my value system.
“Who out of the R line up would you even consider?”
Gingrich. Not Santorum (fanatically religious), Paul (nutty and I think just playacting as if he has a clue), Romney (typical dishonorable politician), Huntsman (little bredth to his experience), or Perry (complete flaming idiot).
@Rick
Does the mean spirit bother you or the hypocrisy?
What movies to you recommend?
I did enjoy Ron Paul in the “Bruno” movie though – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7RnlPQCKBQ
You mean with Newt? His meanness and partisanship, his personal hypocrisy, and his innate recklessness all do bother me.
Movie recommendations – I saw “We Bought a Zoo” last night, and that’s a fine movie. I think anyone who goes to that will be drawn in and like it. I rate it at an “A”.
Yes, Newt. Why would you consider him if you feel that way?
What is We bought a Zoo about?
Since you asked, Moon, here is my list of the top 10 films of 2011 :
1. Anonymous – EASILY. A great overlooked film.
2. Super 8
3. The Women on the 6th Floor (French)
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
5. Water for Elephants
6. Real Steel
7. Win Win
8. Limitless
9. The Guard (Irish)
10. War Horse
Best Actor – Brendon Gleeson in “The Guard” and Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
Best Actress – Michelle Williams in “My Week With Marilyn”
Best Director – Roland Emerich for “Anonymous”
Best Screenplay – “Win Win” or “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
Thanks for the recommendations. I marked some for Netflix. Does anyone know if Amazon or HBOgo has them?
I would consider him because – I hate the status quo as much as I do.
We Bought a Zoo is about a widowed father raising two kids, who buys a property for them to live on which is a Zoo in limbo, with a small staff, trying to reopen. So the family and staff are involved with feeding and caring for the animals. The characters and the performances pull you right in.
War Horse is good too. Both of those are reasonably kid friendly movies, and both engrossing to any audience.
I am avoiding war Horse at all costs because I will blubber through the whole thing. I cannot do animal stories without disturbing others greatly. I can see millions of people mowed down in cold blood and not flinch. Let one animal get a thorn in its foot and I become a quivering mass of hysteria.
Do you think I could survive War Horse?
Yeah, you should see it. The horse makes it through the war. Just keep telling yourself that no animals were harmed during the filming.
There’s a scene of the horse running through war trenches that is techincally amazing. The whole film looks georgeous. This guy Spielberg really does know how to direct a movie.
It’s a classically good movie. This could have been made by David Lean in 1965, it would be the same movie.
I might have to wait until it comes out on dvd. I don’t want to inflict my emotional instability on others.
Some say Hintsman is using 2012 to prepare a run in 2016, assuming Obama wins a second term
@Moon-howler
“I like him because he isn’t anti science.”
And what makes you say this? Being skeptical of Man-made global warming is “anti-science?”
Or his stance on evolution, which I think is, contrary to the press, identical with….oh….98% of Republicans.
@Cargo
Where did you get your 98% statistic?
Let’s let the man speak for himself:
http://www.rawstory.com/rawreplay/2011/08/huntsman-on-gops-anti-science-stances-we-have-a-huge-problem/
A shorter version is:
There are other examples. One might be ‘praying away the gay.’ Do you consider that scientific?
I don’t know. Does “praying away the gay” actually work? What causes people to be gay?
As for the 98 out of 100 climate scientists said is causing climate change…..Galileo was wrong too, according to his peers. I follow the climate change argument online quite a bit. The most recent release of emails is quite damning. The climate science community is NOT in consensus about global warming, its causes, its effects, or even if it is happening.
And those that aren’t willing to embrace evolution….. what’s their position on Iran? Government spending? Building jobs? The Constitution? The limits of government? How many are we talking about?
We have social/religious conservatives that believe that evolution/natural selection isn’t real. The left believes that socialism works and that Al Gore’s movie is truth.
I think that the anti-evolution guy will do less damage to the country, even if “creationism” was forced on every school system to be taught along with evolution. My only hope is that those that profess that belief be offered penicillin when they have an infection and save the good antibiotics for me. Because..hey..penicillin should work on those germs. Everyone knows that evolution doesn’t work.
ClimateGate:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6636563/University-of-East-Anglia-emails-the-most-contentious-quotes.html
I thought you might enjoy a mid winter’s road trip there. You could be the heckler in the crowd.