County and City personal property taxes are due today! Avoid that penalty and make sure they are in on time.
A big chill is coming in this weekend. Time for those sweaters and and for the furnace to come on.
The City of Manassas celebrates its 30th Fall Jubilee this Saturday, October 6, 2012 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM.
A good time is always had by ALL.
First our esteemed VP tells a man in a wheelchair to stand up. Yesterday he tells women without seats to “sit down”. Keep on truckin’, Joe!!
“Monty Python” fans might recall the Ministry of Silly Walks. I propose creation in the United States of a Federal Department (same as a British Ministry) of Silly Remarks. Its bi-partisan founders will be Vice-President Biden and Congressman Akin. Vice-president Biden’s verbal history is well-known and needs no further elaboration. Congressman Akin’s remark about abortions performed on women who aren’t pregnant qualifies him immediately for this leadership role.
Former Vice-President Al Gore has attributed President Obama’s shellacking at the debate to the thin air in Denver. That comment, and many others, earn him the position as head of the advisory panel of the Department of Silly Remarks.
We’re still working on filling out the full board.
Lest someone accuse me of straying from my conservative principals by advocating creation of a new Federal department, let me assure you that the Ministry of Silly Remarks will be completely unfunded by taxpayer dollars and occupy no Federal office facilities. I propose that it operate in conjunction with the Darwin Awards people (www.darwinawards.com) and communicate with the public through their existing website; a most appropriate partnering.
Here’s a major difference. To become a recipient of a Darwin Award, you must actually meet your demise while committing the stupid act. To be accepted into the Department of Silly Remarks, no harm need come to you.
Nominations are open, but keep in mind that standards are high. Vice-presidents Gore and Biden, and Congressman Akin are stiff competition.
Two days after the debate, and WaPo reports no post-debate polling. Why is that?
@Emma
And the U-3 unemployment rate “unexpectedly” went below 8%. Of course, pundits were predicting last year that the gov’t would magically get it lower by October. And look! They did! With less than 120K jobs made, it dropped .3 points. Really? When the experts were saying it might even rise?
Something is not right.
I wonder how many people fell off of the job market this time.
Hey! Who would think that politicians would lie about their opponents positions?
http://washingtonexaminer.com/no-romney-will-not-raise-taxes-on-the-middle-class/article/2509736#.UG7a9VHdtQI
Excerpt:
Its authors — one of whom is a recent Obama employee — have subsequently admitted that in the absence of details about Romney’s tax plan, they simply made them up. They also admitted their numbers came out wrong because they guessed which tax breaks Romney would eliminate and which ones were “off the table.”
Here’s the full report for those who want to see the numbers for themselves:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
I haven’t had time to review it thoroughly (it was released only at 8:30 this morning), but the main question is how the unemployment rate could fall from 8.1% to 7.8% when only 114,000 net jobs were created.
The first thing that jumps out at me is part-time employment. The number of involuntary part-time workers increased by 8.0 to 8.6 million, for a gain of 600,000 people. That is a huge jump. When the Labor Department calculates these numbers, employment is a binary variable. You are either employed (full-time, part-time, voluntary, involuntary), or you are unemployed. These additional 600,000 people involuntarily working part-time when they want full-time work explain a great deal of the fall in the unemployment rate.
I caution my fellow Romney supporters about engaging in conspiracy thinking. These numbers are compiled by career statisticians and economists. Over the years, I’ve known and worked with some of them. I use these data in my work now. These people are not political and do not manipulate the data. Moreover, the data are very volatile month-to-month whether there is an election going on or not.
Also, Romney supporters should not look negatively on a lower unemployment rate, even if it is only because more people found part-time work when they want full-time work. Romney’s economic policies will be far better for the economy than Obama’s. Romney’s policies will boost the growth in employment, and help move these 8.6 million people involuntarily employed only part-time into the ranks of the full-time job holders.
@Need to Know
Here’s a good analyisis.
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/05/why-todays-bls-jobs-numbers-make-no-sense/
As we can see here, the repugs were hoping that the unemployment rate would stay high so that Obama and the Democrats would lose the election.
Most normal people would be happy that unemployment is getting better but not the repugs.
@Starryflights
I would think that the unemployment rate getting lower would be a good thing too.
I guess politics over country is the name of the game.
@Starryflights
I would love it if the unemployment rate ACTUALLY came down.
But this report is a statistical anomaly. And to make it clear, I had trouble with the previous reports too.
Yeah I had problems with previous reports too. Glad they were revised upwards.
September jobs report: Debunking the jobs report conspiracy theories
Posted by Ezra Klein on October 5, 2012 at 10:16 am
The fact is that there’s not much that needs to be explained here. We’ve seen drops like this — and even drops bigger than this — before. Between July and August the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent — two-tenths of one percent. November-December of 2011 also saw a .2 percent drop. November-December of 2010 saw a .4 percent drop. This isn’t some incredible aberration. The fact that the unemployment rate broke under the psychologically important 8 percent line is making this number feel bigger to people than it really is.
This is an encouraging report. What it tells us is that the labor market has been a bit better over the last few months than we thought, and that the recovery hasn’t slowed in the ways we feared. What the response to it tells us is that the election is driving people a little bit crazy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/05/september-jobs-report-debunking-the-jobs-report-conspiracy-theories/?hpid=z1
The 600,000 are not people giving up full-time employment for part-time. Look at table A-8 of the Labor Department report I linked above. It says clearly, “Part time for economic reasons” including “Slack work or business conditions” and “Could only find part-time work.” Also, if Obama and his people were behind a conspiracy to fake the employment numbers, why would they load the fictitious jobs into that category? If you are going to do something like that and lie anyway, just go ahead and say they found good jobs and are working full-time with benefits.
This report is done on the basis of a survey; sort of like a political poll. The Labor Department person asks the interviewee about their employment status. If they say they are now working part-time that goes into the data and that person is counted as employed. Those data are then extrapolated statistically to represent the entire population. Just like political polls, the analysis has a lot of volatility and is revised frequently.
Again, no one should jump on the conspiracy theory bandwagon as Jack Welch did today. This report is not even that good. The unemployment rate went down to 7.8%, which is still a poor performance reflecting a weak economy, on the basis of people who really want a full-time job working part-time INVOLUNTARILY.
This is a not a good jobs report, no matter which way you slice it. Republicans dreaming up conspiracy theories will not help Romney. Focus on how weak the report is, and the fact that the unemployment rate went down because people can only find part-time work.
Our message should be that it’s great that some people could at least find some part-time work, but that we need a president who will pursue policies that allow everyone who wants a good-paying, full-time job to have one.
@Starryflights
I think you and I are on the same side this time. I’m telling Republicans not to dream up conspiracy theories, and you’re telling Democrats not to make more of this report than it really is.
You can’t possibly be on the same page as Starry, he’s reading from the only copy of Mao’s Little Red Book written in Elvish.
@Mom
Just trying for some bi-partisan cooperation. I would be stunned and amazed, however, if Starry dropped the name-calling against Republicans and tried to interact as Reagan and O’Neill did. Search the annals of Moonhowlings and you will not find me having ever called Democrats derogatory terms. Some members of the Board of Supervisors and some members of staff maybe, but not Democrats in general.
@Need to Know
Do you actually think there will ever be enough jobs for people who want them given our global economy? Seriously.
The town where I grew up has an economy driven by the housing market and fashion. Unemployment there has been in the teens. Since the last few years have been so dreadful for the mill owners (who are no longer local families but multi-nationals) there has been a push to further modernize, consolidate their plants, and use fewer people and more robotics. That town will never have near full employment again. This scenario plays out across the nation.
Where are all these jobs going to come from?
“Where are all these jobs going to come from?”
According to the PWC model, Starbucks or Walgreens.
@Censored bybvbl
What is your solution? Just throw our hands in the air and give up? Not me.
Jobs are not going to come from trickle-down big government.
I agree to some extent with the liberal critique about businesses shipping jobs overseas. It’s in their interests to do so. If you are the business, or its stockholders, it pays to seek cheaper labor and resources even to the detriment of American workers who lose their jobs. Second, taxes and government involvement in our economy discourage job creation.
I would pursue policies to address those two problems. Tariffs and trade controls would not help. However, cracking down on trade cheaters and intellectual property rights abuse, as Romney has proposed, would help a lot. Also, I would change the tax code to create incentives to create jobs here. First, lower the corporate income tax rate as both Romney and Obama proposed in the debate. Also, create tax incentives. Don’t just hand out chunks of money like Obama did to Solyndra, but reward businesses for creating jobs in the U.S.
Second, do not raise marginal tax rates or other taxes. Make that certain and known. Tax rates are relatively low in historical terms now, but businesses are reluctant to create jobs because of uncertainty of what might happen in the future. Get rid of that uncertainty. Get rid of unhelpful regulations. We’ve discussed Dodd-Frank on MH before. I’ve argued endlessly that it failed in the most needed areas such as too big to fail, and business practices of the big banks. Dodd-Frank did not include the Volcker Rule, which would have abolished risky derivatives trading by the banks. As Romney said, Dodd-Frank went after regional and community banks, which pose virtually no risk to the financial system, and burdened them with additional regulations that are expensive to carry out. As I’ve said many times on Moonhowlings, I want Dodd Frank stronger than it is now, but strengthened in the right places. That’s just one example.
There are many ways of getting the economy growing robustly again and more jobs being created, but it’s going to take a pragmatic, non-ideological leader like Romney to do it.
@Mom
The PWC example is one of the worst cases of corporate influence-peddling you can find. My ideas are to create incentives and regulation to ensure business works in our interests and creates jobs, while government stays out of the way. The crony network system in Prince William County works to ensure that development interests get what they want, politicians get plenty of money for their campaigns, and that taxpayers get only the scraps.
@Need to Know
How would you expect Mom and Pop stores to compete in an environment dominated by big box stores? I’ve a acquaintance whose nursery/Christmas stand went out of business three years after Home Depot opened a store less than a mile away with plants that cost 40% less. How does a family-owned drug store compete with Walgreens? Some people will be loyal until they need a prescription at ten o’clock at night and only find the chains open. Tweaking the tax code won’t save these businesses. Don’t most small businesses fail anyway?
The town I mentioned thinks that their product is too bulky to compete with Chinese goods because the shipping would be high. Helloooo…furniture is shipped from China. And the Chinese will set up factories in Vietnam if there’s a limit to what can be shipped from China.
This country is going to have to figure out how to compete internationally. And that doesn’t guarantee Americans higher wages or even a livable wage. Not everyone is going to complete college or tech school with a marketable skill. What can those people expect for employment? As much as I agree with you about over-building residential units in PWC, that work employs people.
@Starryflights
So, gaining 800,000 + jobs in one month, even part time, when all other market signals show a downturn…is not an aberration. A gain not seen in decades? Ok then.
Just to be clear, I do not think that there is a conspiracy.
This is just weird. Too many financial professionals are also wondering what happened.
@Censored bybvbl
Here’s an area where I agree very much with President Obama, although I would imagine Romney would concur also. I just haven’t heard him say. Bolster the community college system. They are turning out more employable people than the universities do. Romney spoke at length about education, and I would like him to state agreement with Obama on this point. We don’t need so many people with four-year liberal arts degrees who majored in partying and football. In terms of employability of people for tax dollars spent you get no better return for post-high school education than the community colleges.
Residential construction work is temporary, low-paying and often goes to people who are not in the country legally because the developers can exploit and underpay them. That’s not where we should look for job creation. I might think a little differently about that one if the County would crack down on employers who hire and underpay illegal aliens, but with Corey, Marty and Wally in charge I don’t see that happening.
@Need to Know
I agree that community colleges are a good investment. They have the ability to gauge the employment situation and train people in those areas more quickly. (I don’t under-value a liberal arts education though – some very good managers come out of those fields.)
Construction work has become much more low paying. I’d point my finger at the large national firms for their crappy wages. I’ve a friend who’s managed to survive as a carpenter by working for an architect who appreciates his skill but even the architect has less work.
http://www.visitmanassas.org/
Another great Manassas weekend! Come join the fun!
The 30th Annual Old Town Manassas Fall Festival 10AM-5PM
@Need to Know
Make trade schools more prestigious. More kids in Switzerland attended trade schools than college. A master plumber/carpenter/electrician is the equal of any university credentialed person in his field.
@Cargosquid
You have to get the large builders (most of them national firms) to hire those certified and pay them a decent wage. They’re the main employers. You also have to change Harry Homeowner’s mind about hiring the cheapest person regardless of credentials.
Just when you think the left can’t possibly get any more sad and pathetic, they dive to new lows. Here they are claiming Romney had a cheat-sheet during the debate. Holy Lord.
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/10/05/upon-further-review-mitt-romney-may-have-cheated-to-win-the-debate/
@SlowpokeRodriguez
But its true.
Cheat sheet found.
http://moelane.com/2012/10/05/secret-romney-cheat-sheet-revealed-must-credit-moe-lane/
@Need to Know
We need electricians, plumbers, people who know how to fix heat pumps, automobile mechanics (has become high tech), not to mention decently paid (and appreciated) people to take care of our elderly and our youngest (daycare). Everybody talks about the importance of having children ready for school, yet the pre-school programs seem to be considered not important.
The old apprentice system gave us well prepared young people to take over from the earlier generation. It’s gone. What should be done?
In about 10 minutes you’ll be able to listen to Wynton Marsalis on Ch. 26
“Music without borders” promises to be a wonderful musical experience.
I adore Marsalis. His trumpet…..
I still haven’t figured out how anyone wins a debate that :
1. first off isn’t a debate
2. there are no benchmarks for success.
Go figure. Only in conservative-ville.
So I guess if Obama had gone over and punched Romney in the mouth every time he lied or vacillated, that would have counted as a win for Obama?
@punchak
Tim Kaine tried desperately to get pre school programs in, especially in poorer areas where children came to school without much exposure to those things we call readiness. He was shot down by the conservatives in the state who want to see things improved in school.
The ignorance astounds me. Nothing beats success like readiness for learning. Let’s do away with all the programs. More flat earth mentality.
@punchak
My mother was his spanish teacher in High School. He got a C in class. He would come to class unable to speak correctly because his lips were too swollen from practicing. She gave him a C because everyone knew that his life was in music.
@Moon-howler
No…. if he had countered any lies with facts and figures.
One wins a debate by using the better facts, figures, and arguments. Apparently (because I didn’t see it) Romney had the better arguments than Obama, the better body language, the better statements. The viewers decided that Obama did not do well.
There are actual rules to deciding who wins a real debate.
If better facts, figures and arguments are what wins a debate, then I don’t think Romney won.
Actually, I am still not sure other than stage presence what any of this is being based on.
They both put me to sleep.
I think the viewers were not counting on Romney doing as well rather than Obama doing poorly. He didn’t. It was more of a personality thing. He didn’t act…fired up and ready to go, to be blunt. He didnt appear to be in campaign mode.
Now THAT was funny!
The economy created a lot of new jobs, that’s what happened.
We orossed the 8 percent threshold. That has been Romney’s benchmark for the past several years for evaluating this president’s performance. Promise kept.
@Starryflights
Who are you going to believe?
The gov’t or your lying eyes. The rest of the data does not support it. That’s why other experts are wondering about this. If we did, GREAT!. But, as I said… something’s off.
Chinese workers from an Apple plant are on strike because they didnt get off for a holiday and the quality controllers are supposedly bullying them. They beat the quality controllers.
Is that what is slowing down distribution of iphone 5? There is a 4 week delay.
Dogs are 50-50 right handed or left handed.
Humans are 90% right handed.
@Moon-howler
Sounds like those workers need to unionize.
Every time I post a comment on here or respond to a txt MSG on my phone I hear the silent screams of thousands of Chinamen.
Doesn’t impact my signal quality what so ever.
I figure the Chinese will figure out their own labor solutions. There are 2 ways to look at all this. The Chinese have jobs which is more than many people do. The flip side is, They should get off holidays and not be forced into worling slave hours. Other than that, I guess I will mind my own business and let Apple work it all out. They are at least sensitive to some degree.
How many of these workers are emboldened by the fact Apple is Apple?
Minding my own business…except…marin…”chinamen?” I think that is probably a word that went out with high button shoes. My grandmother used to say it and we jumped all over her.
China persons?
The Chinese I guess.
Valid point.
I don’t lose a wink of sleep over sweatshop conditions.
Won’t stop me from buying iAnything.
Do you not think that speaks to a moral vacuum in your personality? I guess you would have been ok with child labor?
I just want to point out a couple of things.. In the month of September (unlike any other September in history, mind you) the government said that there was an increase in employment for persons aged 20-24. This has never happened before in the history of the NFP (and I’ll give you three guesses as to why).
Let’s take this to a logical conclusion. College students aren’t going back, probably because they figure they aren’t going to get a job anyway and won’t be allowed to discharge their massive student loan debts under current bankruptcy law.
Also, the NFP is always manipulated, no matter which party is in power, via the asinine birth-death model.
Party first……country last.
Every little bit helps.
Too many modern day cry babies including some here would have never made it through the Great Depression. You would have expected instant needs fulfillment.
The repugs would prefer to see their fellow Americans unemployed rather than lose an election. That is very unpatriotic and unAmerican.
Actually, unAmerican is hating the country so much that you’re willing to pull the level for this clown a second time.
So who counts in your book, Cato? Who are the REAL Americans? Let’s hear it. Ageist Republicans?
Oh, so Obama supporters hate their country, eh? That’s a good example of what I’m talking about.