Disclaimer: All guest posts are the opinion of the poster and do not necessarily represent the views of moonhowlings.net administration.

M-H

Today our guest post is from Steve Thomas.  Steve is chairman of the Manassas City GOP.  I invited him to post here about his feelings about the referendum on the City ballot about changing the local elections in the City to November.  A big thanks to Steve for sharing his thoughts on this important issue.  We have many City folks who come to this blog and I feel they are often under-represented.

 

May Is For Manassas!

Thank you for the opportunity to guest-contribute to Moon Howlings. On Tuesday, Manassas City voters will cast their ballots to decide a question that could have some very profound impacts on the quality of government we receive in the future.  While voting to decide this question, they will also vote for President, Senator, and Congressman.  Lost in the rhetorical roar of national campaigns, there has been little public discussion on a proposition to move Manassas elections for Mayor, City Council, and School Board from May to November.   If local elections were to be moved, they would fall on the same day as the Presidential, Senatorial, and Congressional elections are held.

According to the organization advocating for the move (YESforNovember), there are two main reasons for moving the election. First, they claim combining local and federal elections will save money. Second, they claim it will increase voter turnout.   Let us examine these arguments first. According to the Manassas Registrar, holding a May election every two years costs $10,000 each time it is held.  The City has to pay its election officials and pay to have the voting machines set up and tested.  If the elections were combined, a large portion of this cost would be saved, but some of it would be transferred to the November election cost, and would not be saved.  How much is not yet known, but let’s say 80% (I think I am being generous) is actually saved. What does this mean to taxpayers? A $4,000.00 per year budget savings, on a total annual city budget of $96.4 MILLION.  The Manassas Registrar has stated that in her professional opinion, the savings will be insignificant. I would agree: it doesn’t even amount to a rounding error.

Their second argument is moving the elections will increase voter turnout. They argue Manassas City local elections have historically lower turnout than November elections, and cite some pretty compelling statistics to back up their assertion, with little context.  Yes, fewer people vote in May elections, but Manassas City voter turnout is similar to those other cities and towns across Virginia, who also hold May elections. While they cite the statistic that Manassas is only one of two jurisdictions that still hold partisan elections in May, they fail to mention that Manassas is in the majority of municipalities who still hold local elections in May. That’s right. More cities and towns hold local elections in May, than do cities and towns in November, and for very good reason.

Could you imagine if we were holding our elections for Mayor, City Council, and School Board this coming Tuesday? Regardless of who you are backing this year, I am sure we can all agree that this has been one of the most contentious elections anyone can remember. National issues like the economy, taxes, social security, healthcare, Choice, guns,  Foreign policy, energy, the environment…. Each of us has our issues that are important to us, and national campaigns are great at making sure we hear about them…. Constantly. How many of you say “I can’t wait for election day, so all of the noise will stop”?  Yes, our national issues are important, but our local issues are important as well.  Property tax rates, Schools, Public Safety, Neighborhood Health, Blight, zoning, etc., these issues have a major impact on our daily lives, and our quality of life. I would argue that local issues have a more profound impact because local government is the closest and most accessible level of government to us. This quality of government is something those advocating for the move to November have given consideration. Sure, more people will be voting, but how informed can you be, when you are literally bombarded day and night with adds from the various campaigns and special interest organizations, all competing to be heard above all others?  Will increasing the quantity of votes really increase the quality of local government? I say “No”.

Let’s use the last two local elections as an example. In May 2010, three candidates ran unopposed for City Council (2 Republicans, 1 Independent), and five candidates ran for three School Board seats, plus one candidate ran unopposed to fill out the term of a current member. All ran as independents.  Voter turnout was low, because there weren’t many contested races. Now look at May 2012. Voter turnout was much higher, because all races (except for Mayor, which was a contested nomination) were contested, and we had Republicans, Democrat, Independent, and Write-in candidates for Council, and all open seats on School Board were contested as well. The race was VERY issue driven, and for those who care about local issues such as schools and taxes, the debate was very lively, and at times got VERY contentious. Imagine if the May 2012 election were being held on Tuesday, November 6th.  How much attention, patience and civility do you think the voters would have for our local candidates?  How much would it cost a local candidate to run in such an environment? Could independents or write-ins mount viable campaigns amongst the TV, Radio, Internet, direct mail, door-to-door efforts of national campaigns? Again, I say “No”.

Ask anyone who has successfully run for local office how much it costs to mount a campaign. I have. I have asked current and past Mayors, Councilman, and School Board members. Republicans and independents.  Regardless of whether they ran with party affiliation or as an independent, they all pretty much told me the same thing: To be successful, you need to spend about $2-$3.00 per voter contacted. This cost includes mailings, yard signs, and other campaign materials.  Also, to secure one vote, you need to knock on ten doors, and talk to 5 people.  What this works out to, is it costs an incumbent $3,000 to $4,000 and a challenger $5,000 to $6,000 dollars to mount a successful campaign, provided they also have the time it takes to knock on the thousands doors it takes to reach the 2,500 or so voters who decide local elections.  This is well within the reach of an average citizen, who cares about local issues, and wants to serve the community.  Now, imagine having to reach 15,000 voters. The cost to reach them goes up to $30,000! Does the average citizen have this money lying around? How about those already in office? How much of their time will be spent fundraising for reelection? Now that we are talking “big money”, will special interest groups now have influence in our local elections? If you don’t think it costs “big money” to be heard in a November election cycle, look at how much the organization who is pushing the move has spent to get their single issue message  out :  OVER $20,000! http://www.vpap.org/donors/profile/money_out_details/92755?committee_id=3707&end_year=2012&filing_period=all&lookup_type=year&start_year=2006

I am a partisan guy. I don’t hide who I am.  I’ve worked on every local, state, and Federal election campaign in the City of Manassas since 2000.  I believe independents for Mayor or City Council will not be able to successfully compete for office, as they will not have the resources to match the campaigns of those running as a party nominee. They won’t have the “up-ticket coat-tails” of Presidential, Senatorial, and Congressional races to ride. They won’t have the party organizations available to knock on every door in the city. They won’t have access to the individual donors already deluged with fundraising requests. To run, whether as a partisan or an independent, you will most likely have to be financially well-off to begin with.  Those running for School Board (all independents) will most likely have to affiliate with a one or the other party by seeking their endorsement, as is the case out in Prince William County.

 

Currently, while our local elections for Mayor and Council are partisan affairs, they aren’t really that partisan. Most years, the Democrats haven’t run anyone, and Independents have run successfully in the City. The last local election was issue-driven. It was more about demonstrated experience and commitment to the community, than anything else.  When you move these elections to November, you are inserting them into a hyper-partisan atmosphere. It may shock you that one of the most partisan people in the City of Manassas is saying this would be a bad thing, but this is exactly what I am saying. Here’s a list of people who agree with me:

-Mayor Hal Parrish

-Mayor of Winchester, Elizabeth Minor, who initially favored their move, and now advises against it

-All current members of the City Council, including Independent Steve Randolph

-All three members of the Manassas City Electoral Board, two Republican, One Democrat.

-Former Councilwoman, School Board Member and subject of a nearly successful write-in, Sheryl Bass

 

Moving Manassas City local elections from May to November will do more harm than good. While it may result in some insignificant savings to the tax-payer, and more people will be voting in the election, they will be voting for only those candidates with the resources to mount a successful campaign, who are backed by party or special interest organization. Gone will be the days of the “citizen public servant”. Our government will be run by the professional politician. Please keep our elections in May: Vote “NO” on the issue to change the date of our local elections.  Thank You.

36 Thoughts to “Steve Thomas: May Is For Manassas!”

  1. Thanks for putting up Steve’s guest post, Moon. I may not agree, but it’s important for people who live in the City of Manassas to listen to what Steve has to say and make their own decision. I think the more people who vote on a candidate or issue, the better, and that happens in November. I’m voting YES.

  2. Steve, what you say makes a lot of sense. Money also isn’t everything. I paid attention to your elections. Frankly, who you all elect does impact us, especially those of us who live in the county part of town (Steve Randolph, just close your eyes and pretend I didn’t say that)

    We can contribute to your campaigns or we can work for your candidates. If City Council and school board folks were on the Nov. ballot I wouldn’t even bother to look. I think its important to highlight your people.

    I wish the county would consider going to May. It might cost more but it might also shake things up a bit if people paid attention to who they were voting for. I know one person who probably wouldn’t be around any longer. (maybe more)

  3. @Cindy Brookshire

    I wish the county would go with May elections. It might be a way to focus on who really needs to go and it wouldn’t cost so much to run.

  4. Don Richardson

    As someone who has been on the ballot 5 times in November, I respectfully disagree. I don’t think I would have done better had the local County offices been elected in May; if anything, I probably would have done less well, because I am a moderate and May elections are more dominated by the hard core Party activists. In 1999, despite being a total newbie, having no campaign staff, and financing my whole race myself, I still drew 25 percent of the vote in a three-way race because my other community activities had given me good name recognition in my district. Money does not really determine local races, although some people want you to think it does.

    I don’t subscribe to the proposed change because of the savings in the costs, although in these times anything we can do to reduce the cost of government is a good thing. My main reason for supporting the November ballot is to support the principle that an officeholder should have as many folks involved in his/her election or defeat as possible. It’s a matter of legitimacy.

    We have too many elections. We are ALWAYS in campaign mode, one way or the other, and this really has a negative effect on the quality of decisionmaking by those in office. I’m one of those radicals who would like to see Virginia’s General Assembly and Gubernatorial elections moved to even years, to coincide with the National elections. That WOULD save a lot of money and give our officeholders more breathing space to actually make reasoned, sane decisions without worrying about the immediate knee-jerk reactions of partisans on either side.

    Of course, the above comments (plus $3.50) will get you a nice hot cuppa at Starbucks, so take them for what they are worth…

    1. Oh thanks Don. Now I am going to have to take back my words some. You have made a very cogent argument for the opposite. I am going to say I am glad I don’t have to choose.

      You are right. People are always in campaign mode. when you are in dampaign mode, you aren’t doing what we elected you to do.

      As for your personal situation…you also make a very good point.

      I will say, if the City were in Nov. I probably wouldn’t pay them any mind. That also might make some folks happy.

      By the way, I forgot to tell you how glad I am to see you!

  5. Don Richardson

    I should add, but forgot to, that I have a great deal of respect for Steve.

  6. Elena

    Who is actually running the “yesfornovember” movement? Do they have a website?

  7. Elena

    Great alternative points here from Don. I love a thoughtful discussion!

  8. IVAN

    Steven Hirst is running theyesfornovember site. He was the one who canvasted the City for three months at the Farmers Market, grocery stores and door to door to get enough signatures to put the initiative on the ballot.

  9. IVAN

    Make that Hersch. My bad.

    BTW, Moon, if the PWC elections last year had been held in May, would the outcome been different?

    1. I don’t know. One thing might be different…people might be more willing to run because it is far less expensive. Independents also have more of a chance.

      It costs a lot to run for board of supervisors.

      I have walked that back a little after reading Don Richardson’s post. I guess I am the proverbial fence sitter. Glad I don’t have to make a decision.

  10. IVAN

    Moon, IMHO costs are the least of worries on this issues. I think alot of City Reps. are losing their deodorant over this issue for totally different reasons. They say that local issues will get drown out by State and national issues. What were the issues this past May’s election? A ballet and abortion dominated the R convention. There has not been a Dem. elected in Manassas for over 30 years. It’s a closed shop. The convention nominees win automatically(except for one Independant). Changing the election to the fall would focus more on real city issues(schools, public safety, economic development et. al) and less on “wedge issues”(ballet,abortion) and give more citizens an opportunity to participate in a real dmocracy instead of an “old boys club”.

    1. For the City to focus on abortion is incredibly stupid. Local elections have zero control over abortion. As for the ballet, this is a red herring also and driven by mean-spiritedness.

      As for the lock out…not sure what can be done about that. I know one person who would not move their voter registration from Fairfax because of the comments that are made to people who are not Republican in the City.

      I also know someone else who welcomes the challenge. 👿 The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

  11. Censored bybvbl

    I think most voters expect to go to the polls and to cast their votes in November. Too many people view the May elections as party primaries and ignore them. If the City Council is comprised of one independent and the rest all one party, something is skewed in that party’s favor. November elections get voters of all persuasions involved and the outcome will better represent the community – which in Manassas City’s case is diverse and also female!

    Town hall meetings offer the candidates a chance to make their positions known at a low cost. In fact they have the advantage of allowing more interaction between voters and candidates than is usually available between voters and those running for state or federal office.

  12. Steve Randolph

    http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/313676

    Note that this has been an issue for municipalities across Virginia.

    Google “moving Virginia municipal elections from May to November”
    for a number of articles.

  13. Steve Randolph

    Remember that we are talking about school elections also
    moving from May to November.

    They are all required, by state law, to run as independents.

  14. Steve Thomas

    “In 1999, despite being a total newbie, having no campaign staff, and financing my whole race myself, I still drew 25 percent of the vote in a three-way race because my other community activities had given me good name recognition in my district.”

    My point exactly. What did the candidate who won have? My guess, money, staff, and perhaps a strong party organization behind them. When’s the last time an Independent was elected to the County BOS? How many election cycles have the charges of “being in the developer’s pockets” been bandied about? How much money candidates accept from developers and other special interests is always an election issue. Guess what? The candidate who takes this money usually wins.

  15. Steve Thomas

    “If the City Council is comprised of one independent and the rest all one party, something is skewed in that party’s favor.”

    What is skewed is one party ALWAYS runs a full slate, while the other party rarely runs anyone at all, (one for mayor and one for City Council in the last ten years). The fact that the GOP always runs a full slate, and yet an independent has been successful also disproves your point. First rule of any contest, you can’t win, if you don’t enter.

  16. Steve Thomas

    IVAN :Moon, IMHO costs are the least of worries on this issues. I think alot of City Reps. are losing their deodorant over this issue for totally different reasons. They say that local issues will get drown out by State and national issues. What were the issues this past May’s election? A ballet and abortion dominated the R convention. There has not been a Dem. elected in Manassas for over 30 years. It’s a closed shop. The convention nominees win automatically(except for one Independant). Changing the election to the fall would focus more on real city issues(schools, public safety, economic development et. al) and less on “wedge issues”(ballet,abortion) and give more citizens an opportunity to participate in a real dmocracy instead of an “old boys club”.

    So many contradictory statements, and so little time:

    First, Costs do matter. Talk to anyone who has run for office, no matter what their affiliation. Look at the county. Where do they get the big money? Special interests. Second, shifting the date of the election won’t have any impact on the conduct of MGOP conventions, but since you broght it up, over 600 people participated in selecting the nominees, and the slate that was selected represented the entire spectrum of the party. “Abortion and Ballets”? That may have been the buzz around the blogosphere, but it isn’t what decided the election, and the results proved it. It was experience and a demonstrated commitment to the City. Wolf, Way and Lovejoy had it, the unsuccessful candidates did not. The write in was interesting, but it also proves it takes money and organization to pull something like that off, both of which the “pink army” had. Please explain how making elections more expensive is going to attract more people to run? If anything, it will make having that “R” next to your name MORE important. Also, regarding schoolboard, look again at the county. Candidates seek the endorsement of the local parties, in order to differentiate themselves from the pack, and hopefully, benefit from the party organization. If anything, I think the time and considerable time resources spent on the ManassasVotes effort would have been better spent on helping the Democrat party become better organized, attract some actual candidates, have a real nominations contest, and give people a viable alternative. If you think its currently a “boys club” now, mark my words…this will make it worse.

  17. Steve Thomas

    Thanks for all the opinions. I have to go for now, as I have some election activities to attend to.

  18. Steve Thomas

    @Don Richardson
    Don, the feeling is mutual.

  19. Guess what starts hurting when you are sitting on the middle fence post.

  20. Censored bybvbl

    I’m curious about how many people vote based on observed yard signs or bumper-stickers. My guess is not many or maybe your low info voters. Town hall meetings seem a better source of info. If the local newspaper does its job by getting the candidates’ names and positions out there then the next step for someone seeking answers should be a town hall meeting. Those meetings for a city the size of Manassas shouldn’t be difficult or expensive to organize. Then November shouldn’t be so scary for the incumbents.

  21. Don Richardson

    I know Steve had to run off for other activities, but to respond to his last post: what the winning candidate had was A) he was the incumbent, and B) the same name as our senior State Senator; he didn’t have to spend much money. And I ran with the Republican endorsement for School Board but there were a fairly large number of so-called Republicans who went over the side for Charlie. Not complaining, mind you. I learned a lot of valuable lessons from my first campaign, both positive and negative. Made me stronger for later.

    Fortunately, I don’t have a canine in this contest, so I can just sit back and enjoy the show.

    1. @Don

      My canine is asleep on the couch also. I did follow and comment on the last City election. That was a time consuming affair. Anyone who wants a fresher course can look at the Conscience of a King on the sidebar.

      What year did you first run?

      It sort of all runs together for me.

  22. Ray Beverage

    Cost aside; it all boils down to when a person stands there to cast the vote, they vote what is important to them, and if they feel not important, they don’t. The point raised that in November more people turn out is also a “maybe” and if they are there voting, they may or not vote for every item popping up on the screens. Let’s look at the November elections for the last four years – keep in mind City of Manassas has somewhere around 20,500 voters and these are City numbers only:

    Nov. 2008
    President 13,627
    US Senate 11,940
    US House 11,761

    Nov. 2010
    US House 7,036
    Exempt Property Question 6,765
    Property Tax Question 6,768
    Revenue Stabilization Fund Question 6,673

    Nov. 2011
    VA Senate 5,268
    VA Delegate 4,311
    Comm Attorney 4,529
    Sheriff 4,962

    Now, for the May 2012 City Election, there was around 2,290+ plus voter turnout…and I’ll skip posting the breakouts as that election is still current in many people’s minds. The Mayor had the 2,291 and on the Council, Mr. Wolf had the 1300+, and the School Board was a real spread.

    Do more show up in November? Yes, but not voting for everything on the ballots as shown above. Do less people show up in May? Consistently, yes over the last four rounds when you look at the numbers, and those numbers drop across each election cycle.

    Bottom Line in my view: People who want to come out to vote, vote…and vote only what they feel is important.

  23. AndyH

    A couple of quick thoughts:

    Running in a contested race (especially your first time) requires that you knock on doors if you want to win. Holding a couple of town hall meetings will result in you holding meetings with your friends. If you want peoples vote, you’ve got to show up and ask for it.

    Moving the election to November will certainly present the opportunity for more people to cast ballots for City offices. It seems that the MV folks believe this will change the electoral calculus in the local races. I think that you can hold the elections whenever you want but if the republicans are the only ones fielding candidates then republicans are going to win.

    In my view, it’s the loss of visibility for local issues that will result by the elections being moved that’s the real problem. People only have but so much time to focus on this stuff: go look on your facebook timeline and see how many people are complaining about the ads and door knocking and phone calls. I think the local issues will get obliterated in such an environment.

  24. Cindy B

    Here’s the link to Jeremy Borden’s article in the Washington Post’s Prince William Extra.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/manassas-republicans-aim-to-defeat-ballot-measure-to-move-municipal-vote/2012/11/02/45650f60-2514-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

    I believe a larger sampling of votes in November will be more representative of the whole.

  25. Censored bybvbl

    I don’t know how you really justify having a mere 10% of the voters in a jurisdiction deciding the fate of the other 90%. Yes – 90%. Ninety percent of the voters aren’t being heard. I find it hard to believe that 90% are apathetic. More likely the cards are stacked against other candidates since the incumbents’ party has occupied the Council for so long. Yes, part of the blame belongs to the Democrats for not fielding more candidates but it takes bucks to overcome an incumbent’s advantage. (And the incumbents are the ones squawking.) Ten percent of the voters who are party activists are making the decisions for the other LARGE majority. And now they’re crying about having the issue put to a vote.

  26. Ray Beverage

    @Censored bybvbl

    True, 90% do not make the effort to either vote in person, or make the opportunity to cast an absentee ballot in-person at the Manassas Old Town Hall to include Saturdays (as with this November election, a May election has the opportuntity for about three weeks before to do this). I know of one person who is a regular to the Saturday Farmer’s Market, and never took the time to just walk up and vote.

    I see it not as the 10% being “party activists” – a lot of us are not. We are people who want our say, and we vote according to how we see it. And I do take the view the 90% are apathetic – ok, your canditate or party might not be on the ballot, but take a moment to learn about who is on the ballot, then vote.

    That way when you gripe about City Hall, you can at least say “I Voted”. Elected Officials work for me, not me for them (at least that is the mantra I like to use from time to time to remind them).

  27. Steve Thomas

    @Censored bybvbl
    ” it takes bucks to overcome an incumbent’s advantage.”

    That has been one of my main points. When raising $3-$5K is a huge obstacle for a challenger, imagine having to raise $20K! If you think incumbants have an advantage with their name recognition, how much harder will it be for challengers to be heard above the din of Federal elections.

    1. If that is the case then RNC must have had a fortune. I bet I got at least 12 calls a day from them. I dont think I got any from Obama. I got a few from George Allen but most were Romney calls. Its funny to step back and look at how money was spent.

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