From Campaignsandelections.com:
7 Counties to watch on Election Night:
Prince William County, VA Virginia will be one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, and Prince William County is the most important county there. Romney needs to win the county to win Virginia. George W. Bush and Bob McDonnell were able to win the county rather solidly. There has been an influx of immigrants in the past decade, and as a consequence it has a somewhat more Democratic lean than before. This will also be a good check to see if the Romney and Obama campaigns’ assumptions about the demographics of the electorate are correct.
I snickered when I first heard that the eyes of the nation would be on Prince William County. Whaaaat?? My Prince Billy Bob County?
I think the days of Prince Billy Bob are long gone. Long over. A new prince has arrived and he ain’t named Billy Bob.
So much attention from the pundits and pollsters! I am serious. I got at least 20 calls a day from pollsters and campaigns. I got darn few from Obama. Now I know why. I answered the questions right and they stopped calling. Calling me was a waste of money. Too bad the Romney campaign didn’t think so. I also got a lot of attention from various right to life groups.
How many times did candidates come to Manassas? I have lost count. Romney and Ryan came to Manassas. Mrs. Obama came to Woodbridge or was scheduled to come to Woodbridge. She might have been rerouted because of weather. Romney was at GMU. He was in Centreville. Obama was in Centreville, twice in Prince William County. That is a lot of attention for a given area.
We should have believed them. What has changed? PWC turned bright blue! I know, I know, over here in Western PWC things are still red. It’s red in Gainesville, Bristow and Haymarket (That’s code for real white). However, my own precinct turned blue. I know that is paining some of my neighbors around the corner and down the street! (Moon waves at a fellow blogger and offers mock condolances.)
The reality of it is, in Prince William County, Obama won by almost 15 points as of last night.
The national news channels all kept pointing to PWC on the map and talking about college educated women and Latinos. (and no, we aren’t talking about illegal immigrants! They don’t vote.) Loudoun went blue and so did Fairfax. Dreaded Northern Virginia weighed in and sent a strong message about how things were to be. What was that about REAL Virginia? (sarcasm dripping)
I am also proud to say that Charlottesville and Albemarle County, my home area, looked very much like they should join us up here in new REAL Virginia–Northern Virginia.
Ha ha.The rest of Virginia – that loves NoVa’s tax dollars – will have to take our political choices as well. Glad that PWC joined the rest of NoVa. Next thing you know we’ll be like Fairfax – approving those bonds for more libraries, parks, school renovation! Ah, progress….
Observations:
1) Virginia, Manassas City, PWC and MP all went Democratic in a
Presidential election – for the second time in a row. Perhaps
I should stop being so surprised.
2) Kudos to Tim Kaine – soon to be U.S. Senator Kaine.
3) Looks like Jeanette Rishell finally got a “W” – she will become a
member of the Manassas Park City Council in January.
4) The citizens of Manassas City voted to move municipal elections from
May to November which, as I understand it, will result in the one time
extension of terms for those presently serving by six months.
This is only the beginning. Keep Virginia blue!
Not enough kudos given to Tim Kaine. That last ad against him simly enraged me. George Allen needs to retire for good on that one.
I guess Romney’s “self deporting” comment didn’t go over well here in PWC. Time now for comprehensive immigration reform!
There sure needs to be some change, that’s for sure.
The most successful politicians IMHO have a working class perspective whether they came from working class or not.
I can sure think of a few that fit that bill. I agree Lyssa.
Very proud of PWC for supporting Obama and Kaine but am perplexed as to how that can be and the same voters keep electing far right wingnuts to the county board. Anybody have a reasonable explanation?
@Blue Moon no idea but Elena and I both came up with the same words describing it even.
I don’t think those national supporters realize that there is local government. The mechanism is in place. We need to tap into the Obama machine that is out there now and find candidates to run against those whose time has come to go.
Talking heads discussing the difference between nostalgia and tradition. The former tries to take you back to a time and place vs tradition a ritual or belief passed down. Nostalgia is not useful in selecting a candidate….or obviously winning an election. Guy also said the Democrats were nostalgic for JFK for a long time – Clinton shifted the paradigm. Good points I thought and relavent to this discussion.
@Moon-howler
I guess that describes some of it. Are you saying the turnout for Obama/Kaine simply don’t vote in the local elections?
I just don’t think local elections are sexy. They aren’t interested.
@Blue Moon
A friend of mine who has worked the polls for many years says that the turnout for local and state elections is less diverse and smaller at the polling places she has worked. Seems that the national organization needs to get the state and local organizations more involved.
One of Moon’s “favorite” bloggers came out early on predicting that Virginia would go red. I understand he is now Googling for crow recipes. Does anyone have some good ones? Moon and Elena know where to send them.
@George S. Harris
Hahahahah!!! Good one.
The reason the BOCS is mostly red is two reasons:
Turnout- It’s hard to compare turnout before 2011 because of redistricting but consider this: In 2012 there was a turnout at the primarily red Battlefield Precinct of 2588. In 2011 that number was 1120, a little less than half. In Mullen, a primary blue precinct, the turnout in 2012 was 2231. In 2011 it was 499. Yes, 499 versus 2231 this year, that is not a typo.
Democrats don’t always vote in local elections.
The second reason is that Republicans just campaign on lower taxes. It is a hard message to compete with, whether they actually keep them low or not.
Also food for thought: Everyone thinks the Gainesville District is ultraconservative, but only parts of it are. Of the 23,472 people that voted in the Gainesville District, 11461 voted for Obama and 11696 voted for Romney. That’s 48.8% versus 49.8%. That is closer than a lot of people think…….
Thanks for that breakdown, Watching.
Maybe our new mantra over here should be Turn Gainesville Blue.
I know there are a bunch of old folks out there who wear the red R on their sleeve ….ok ok…they are my age….they aren’t turning anything. But there are a lot of other folks out there to “turn.”
@Watching
Definitely thanks for the numbers Watching. Very interesting. There have been times in the past when Gainesville more or less evenly split in local elections but as Moon says there are a bunch of old folks (read Heritage Hunt) who live and breathe Red. It’s their religion. They’ve got theirs’ and couldn’t care less about the rest so long as they can play golf and do their daily social clubbing.
The Gainesville Dem committee should dig down deep into the 2012 numbers and do some serious groundwork to identify and motivate those voters who rang up 48.8% for Obama. Then find a decent candidate to run in the local election.
Excellent plan, Blue Moon. Hopefully people will start planning long in advance.
From the dark screen–
ouch. Someone has a good memory and is telling it like it is.
This individual forgot to include Corey in the blame. Corey and Greg both should take a bow for the GOP suffering defeat this election.
@Black Velvet Reporter
Not only the defeat in this election but for many elections still to come. These two were, and still are, chorus leaders in the zenophobic noise machine the Republican’ts have embraced.