Looking over election results today, several races caught my eye. First off, Atif Qarni came a little less than 500 points of unseating Delegate Bob Marshall. Bob Marshall has heretofore been invincible. Atif had a lot endorsements and the environmental, educational, and women’s groups poured a fair amount of money into this campaign. Atif had a well organized campaign. They covered their bases. Should Marshall be worried? No one has gotten this close over the past 2 decades.
Jeremy McPike got close to upsetting Delegate Scott Lingamfelter. He was just under 300 votes short to pass Lingamfelter. Lingamfelter garnered some criticism railing against the appointment of Tracey Thorne-Begland as a circuit court judge. Thorne-Begland is openly gay and was a well-respected Richmond prosecutor. Lingamfelter grandstanded against his appointment.
John Bell came even closer to unseating Delegate Dave Ramadan. Bell was less than 200 votes shy of unseating the state delegate. Was it Ramadan’s anti choice position or his delay in standing against the bi-county parkway? Who knows? Bell actually won in Loudoun County. However, Ramadan had enough votes in Prince William County to hold on to his narrow lead.
Three races with very close results. Does it mean anything? I think it does. All the candidates need to look carefully at demographics and the changing tide if they want to stay in office. Any advice for the 3 republicans who came close to getting wiped out?
There is not much time left in political lives of these Republicans. The issue is not so much changing demographics, but changing population density. The change in politics when urban population surpasses rural population is so abrupt, it is almost as if a circuit has closed. As people pack urban areas, they become more dependent on the government for transportation, housing, medical care, etc. They are willing to support high taxes and give up personal choice to “benevolent” D’s who promise that government will fulfill their needs and spread wealth their way. In places where this has happened, Republican office holders become virtually extinct, e.g. Maryland. Given that D’s have won seven out of eight of the last statewide races, this switch may have already occurred in the Commonwealth.
None of those districts can be described as heavily urban. Marshall’s demographics have changed. His district got realigned. Not sure about Lingamfelter. I believe he covers some of the bellwether Coles district. Ramadan’s district is becoming more educated suburban. I would say that’s very much a change.
Now married vs unmarried is a demographic that has emerged on the scene. unmarried people tend to vote more democratic than their married counterparts who tend to vote Republican.
Only about 50% of adults are married in the United States. Not sure about the county statistics.
Kelly, all people who vote democratic don’t want something for free nor do they want government to fill their every need. You are broad-brushing. I don’t think all Republicans have a 5th grade education either.
I think the message is out there to the Republicans and the Teapublicans–get your act together or get out. Was this a sign of things to come in 2014? If the Republican/Teapublicans spend another year wrangling about the Affordable Care Act and not passing a budget, they have signed their own death warrant.
Yes Kelly, folks are willing to pay more taxes for better services, transportation and their welfare. Get used to it-there ain’t no free lunch.
In particular, I would pay more taxes for better transportation, especially public transportation.
@George S. Harris
The Republicans passed a budget.
Folks are not willing to pay more for LESS services. And that is what we are getting.
@Kelly_3406
You are absolutely correct on the demographics.
Enjoy the decline.
Perhaps you should consider moving. *I* am not paying for for less services. I haven’t paid more at the federal level for a long time.
State wise, yes, I am paying more. Thank you Republicans.
Locally, I am not paying more. Thank you BOCS. I would pay more though for better services. I don’t think cheaper is better. Cheap housing and lower taxes doesn’t necessarily attract the best newcomers to the area.
Was that called the Republican budget? Where did they pass one?? Are you speaking of the House budget that passed the house only?
Just saying Republican overlooks the fact that there are Democrats that are part of that body.
@Cargosquid
cargo – you have a different reality and rose colored glasses compared to everyone else. Yes, the Senate was pushed to pass a budget – and then what happened – the R’s prevented the budget from going to resolution by no less than 17 votes and the refusal of the House to appoint conference committee members. So the ‘they passed a budget’ is posturing. We still have no budget and the R’s are the ones pushing the CR’s.
Same as the deficit reduction committee – all the R’s had signed the pledge – and went in saying no increase in taxes – and the first part of negotiations is to have no absolutes, no sacred cows. Sending in those R’s doomed the process before it started – they had no intent to try and come up with a solution.
@Moon-howler
I guess CS is talking about the Commonwealth budget AND the House passed budget, which, as you pointed out, never went anywhere because of the ACA cep they put in each budget. m
You’re right Pat H. CS lives in a totally different world. He thinks CRs are a budget apparently. I can hardly wait to see what happens in January and February 2014–expect we will see more of the same crap we saw in Sept/Oct 2013.
@Pat.Herve
And the Democrats had the same intent….no cuts. And they wanted to raise taxes.
We have a spending problem, not a tax problem.
Since the Senate and House have opposing viewpoints…. that won’t change….how can they go to conference? The Senate demands more taxes and more spending. The House wants to cut spending and no more taxes.
I honestly think many of the representatives in the house are simply too stupid to understand what should be cut and what should not be cut.
They can’t seem to get past clichés.
THe D’s HAVE proposed cuts and Obama has proposed changes to Medicare to reduce spending. We have a balance problem – our tax code is overly complicated and unfair – it needs to be revamped. The R’s will not even discuss it. Just look at the Immigration deal that Rubio spearheaded – where is it going?
From Women’s Strike Force email:
Ramadan won his first race by only 50 votes. This one was almost 200. Going up.
Sorry, George. The GOP doesn’t really need to “wrangle” about the ACA. That monstrosity is doing very well on its own at making this administration look like a bunch of banana republic incompetents. Dems on the Hill who are up for re-election in 2014 are starting to sweat quite a bit.
WSF. Can we look forward to some bare naked protest parades? The March of the Vaginas?
Notice the WaPo exit polls on female voters? 51% McAwful, 42% Cooch, 7% the fake Libertarian. That hardly looked like a feminine tsunami for McAwful despite all the Dem lies about birth control. And, in the same exit polls, WaPO said independents went for Cooch 47% to 38%.
Will the bedrooms in the Governor’s Mansion in Richmond now be available for political party donors? I mean, it isn’t as if Abe Lincoln slept in one of them; but it ought to be interesting anyway. Will they have a price list? Free hot breakfast? Senior citizen discount?
@Wolverine
If politicians are smart, they would be falling all over themselves trying to fix what exists rather than sitting back whining over it.
There are people with real problems. What can be done to fix those problems?
I would start by getting the old policies back for a longer period and do some insurance “negotiating” so people don’t go from paying $800 a month to 1800 per month.
Don’t think for one minute the insurance companies aren’t taking full advantage of the situation. Follow the money.
@Wolverine
Leave it to you to make disrespectful remarks about women.
You are suggesting that women like Leslie Byrne and Katherine Waddell, both grandmothers, are going to walk down the street naked? You refer to them as vaginas?
Your ignorance and lack of manners is simply astounding. Do you even know the objectives of Women’s Strike Force or who is on its board?
Are all independent thinking women despicable to you?
I have never referred to men I arbitrarily don’t like as “dicks” on this blog, tempting though it might have been nor have any of the other women contributors.
That kind of remark is simply unacceptable on this blog.
Madam Moon, I am mighty surprised that you would miss the essence of such a leg pulling. Surely you cannot have forgotten the vagina demonstrations in California and at Cincinnati U. Or the Code Pink vagina demonstration at the RNC convention last year, including those godawful pink costumes. Or the “Vagina Monoloques” on Broadway. And let us not forget the growing topless protest movement in this country or the young Ukrainian feminists exposing their…ahem….mammaries at so many public events in Europe. (The poor European cops don’t know where to grab those kids anymore to take ’em to the slammer. BTW, International Topless Day is 24 August 2014.) Now, it appears to me that all this crazy naked stuff comes from your political side, not mine. But, at least you could spare me the literal jag and share a laugh or two.
Now, to get serious. Yes, I see what the WSF is. From my perspective it appears to be another effort to keep the abortionists busy in this country. Somebody here doesn’t like that opinion? Tough. You all know my stance on the aborting on demand of those innocent children in the womb. It is the same stance I had when I had to track down and end the careers of terrorists who specialized in killing the innocent. We’ve already had a blog set-to on this, and another is not needed. But I will tell you that, when it comes to the lives of innocents, I never have and will never sell my values to anyone for political gain or favor. Period. Personally, I probably would not have opted for a state law on vaginal ultrasounds. But damned if it doesn’t look like some on your side are terribly afraid that a woman might actually see her own child in the womb and change her heart, mind, and soul.
The ACA. It is by almost universal opinion an unholy mess. Sebelius was/is a lousy manager of the program. And Obama was/is a poor overseer of his own signature legislation. I agree with Warren Buffett. The ACA should be scrapped, and we should start over. Surely this nation can manage to find a way to help those who really need help without hurting so many others. Whoever actually put that ACA program together was a dunce with no ability to look ahead at possible consequences. I will tell you this. If you think my posts of late have been a bit nasty, you will be in for a rude shock if some effing HHS bureaucrat ever tells me that Mrs. W, who has given most of her life in service to her country and community, is ineligible for the health care she needs because she is too old. If you don’t think health care rationing will happen under this monstrosity, you are walking blind.
Wolverine, I am afraid I missed all of your vagina parades. I personally don’t care what your opinion is over legal abortion. It is immaterial to me. What is very much to the point is how you will speak of women on this blog. The women who are members of Women’s Strike Force will not be called “vaginas” on this blog. Period. Future remarks of that nature will be removed.
Secondly, what happens between you and HHS representatives is not the business of this blog. Pretty soon you will be on Medicare. That has no upper end age limits, just lower end.
The nastiness needs to stop.
Rereading, actually we haven’t had a blog set-to on the subject of abortion and we aren’t going to. I don’t debate abortion, only the politics of who decides.
If I even think I hear of a threat being made to any provider, landlord, or office worker in that medical field, I can assure you I will turn my computer files over to the FBI. That also goes for any politician, regardless of whether I agree with them or not. I am going to assume, this time, that your suggeston of tracking down terrorists was speaking metaphorically. No one has asked you to change your mind, or your beliefs. I have insisted that you change your rhetoric and not call women ‘vaginas.’ It’s sexist and rude.
Wolverine, you are aware that providers in reputable clinics will administer ultra sounds if they feel it is a medical necessity? In some clinics it is standard procedure, with or without the law. I expect you are walking around with a great deal of mis-information under your belt. You probably wouldn’t have selected ultra-sound as the sword to fall on because politicians shouldn’t be deciding how to practice medicine–that was what was motivating the pro-choice community.
I am curious…why would Mrs. Wolverine be nixed for being too old for health care and you not be if such a plan were even real? Are you suggesting she would be singled out because she is female? I don’t think the war on women has gone quite that far!!!!
I said that the ACA program was put together by dunces. That doesn’t mean that I have dismissed the possibility that it could have been a deliberate botch-up to pave the way for single-payer.
Single payer is just awful. That is the reason those over 65 are turning up their noses at Medicare and are refusing to be a part of the program. NOT!!
Are you going to turn it down?
One more follow-up. David Ramadan is my House delegate. His first race, for an open seat, was won by about 50 votes against Democrat Mike Kondratick from Ashburn. Mike declined to call for a recount. During that race, we got inundated with political mailings from both Ramadan and Kondratick. Both had very creative people putting those mailings together. Kondratick, in fact, had some of the best I’ve ever seen. Some of them actually contained researchable details besides the usual election pablum. Razor close was that contest.
Comes the next election. We got the usual smooth and professional mailings from Ramadan. From John Bell not a damned thing — not a single mailing of any kind. Ramadan’s margin moved up from 50 to almost 200 votes, even though, as I recall, Bell was getting more donations. We are not and have never been connected in any way to either political party. Yet, nada from Bell here in Sterlng Park. I would say that Ramadan didn’t come close to being wiped out. John Bell and his staff may well have dropped the ball.
Perhaps Elena got flyers from John Bell.
I didn’t read a single flyer that came to my house. I probably got 10 a day during the month of October. I threw them all in the recycle. I probably need to find more and pitch them. Do people really read all that? I figure all of them are lies. About the only thing mailers do is exposure to the candidate’s name, as far as I can tell.
I like John Bell. I forget who he ran against when I voted for him. I do recall getting flyers but it wasn’t in this race. Things have been so rerouted, redistricted, and patched up in Prince William County, I would just never remember. We have 8 delegates who represent this county in one way or another. There are 5 state senators. I think 3 US Congressmen. (Wittman, Connolly, Wolf???) This is the worst Gerrymandering I have ever seen.