By now, everyone has seen Jeb Bush utter those fateful words about illegal immigrants committing an act of love.  I think Bush is correct.  I also believe he was correct in stating that 40% of our illegal immigrant problem is because of folks over-staying their visas.  He is correct that our government should know about this as it is happening and that the problem should be dealt with then.

Bush, however, has not even decided if he is going to run for president.  Most talking heads felt he was dip-sticking.  From the Christian Scientist Monitor:

However, for all his studied indecision as to whether he’ll throw his heritage in the ring and try for a Bush three-peat, Bush did do something which could well reverberate throughout the GOP primary season. He repeated that he’s a strong defender of the nationalized Common Core education standards, and that he supports immigration reform over the objections of the conservative wing of the party.

“We need to elect candidates that have a vision that is bigger and broader, and candidates that are organized around winning the election, not making a point,” said Bush to a Fox News interviewer on stage at his dad’s presidential library. “Campaigns ought to be about listening and learning and getting better. I do think we’ve lost our way.”

What Bush is doing here is preemptively discussing his weaknesses within the GOP, write Chuck Todd and the rest of the NBC “First Read” gang this morning.

Both issues are so controversial among Republicans that, if he runs, some of his competitors will surely try to use his stances against him.

“These issues could be two Achilles’ heels for him in a competitive Republican primary, in part because they are such raw, emotional issues,” write Mr. Todd and his compatriots.

In particular, immigration reform has already tied the party’s elected members in knots, as conservatives who oppose any sort of “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants fight with establishment Republicans who believe that the GOP must deal with the reality of the problem and the growing importance of the Hispanic vote.

Republicans have to decide if they want to find a sensible solution for immigration or if they want to keep losing elections at the national level.  What do our contributors think?  I know a few who are going to blow up…both directions.

82 Thoughts to “Jeb Bush: immigration deal-breaker?”

  1. Rick Bentley

    He just knocked himself out of contention for the 2016 nomination, which makes me happy.

    I don’t think Paul Ryan has what it takes to demagogue his way to that nomination either. And this same issue will burn him. I expect another buffoon nomination.

    When you think about it, the Romney nomination was incredibly self-destructive. The GOP nominates a guy for President from a small cult-like religion, which used to believe that black skin was the mark of sin, who believe in magic underwear; his main background is in corporate raiding, his main achievement as Governor was a thing he now has to rail against (healthcare reform), and he kicks things off by insulting 47% of America. Pretty astonisging, but this is becoming a typical day in the life of bizarro GOP.

    I’ll look forward to getting some popcorn and watching the show again.

  2. Ed Myers

    You can’t win in the general election by alienating Hispanics in the primary. Common core is a small business issue–when you hire someone you want to know that a high school diploma means something. It is about efficiency in government saving businesses money.

    The pivot doesn’t work as well with youtube and blogs documenting the hard right that previous candidates were forced to take to win the primary. This trial balloon will help determine if the TEA party has declined enough to allow a moderate to win in primaries.

    It may be he expects to lose but it will position him for a post-Hillary run. If the Senate is in Republican hands I expect the Democrats to have an edge in the 2016 Presidential race. We like divided government because we don’t trust either party.

  3. Rick Bentley

    I kind of agree with your first sentence, but I’d state it differently : the Republicans cannot win the 2016 Presidential election.

    The GOP has become the “white party”. I submit that the Romney nomination was an example of that. His background is as lilly-white as a bar of soap and he is unelectable to a lot of people (maybe 47% of people).

  4. Rick Bentley

    McCain was an odd choice also. To me the GOP is broken; they don’t produce electable candidates. The fact that guys like Cain and Perry are taken seriously for even an iota of time is further proof.

  5. Kelly_3406

    @Rick Bentley

    You are probably right that a Republican cannot get elected in 2016, but not exactly for the reason that you cite.

    Obama was elected because of who he is and what he represents rather than what he can do. He is an excellent campaigner (aka community organizer), but his capabilities in leadership, strategic vision, and organizational management are non-existent. His results (or lack thereof) are obvious.

    Whatever their backgrounds, it seems clear that people like Romney, Rand Paul, and maybe Jeb Bush are capable of getting things done. I don’t really like Rand Paul that much, but his organizational skills and leadership have potential.

    The Democrats have successfully transformed national elections into referenda on the significance of a candidate’s background, rather than on capabilities. Hillary accomplished nothing as a Secretary of State, but the central theme of her candidacy will be on the need to finally elect a woman as president rather than her (lack of) accomplishments. I don’t mind seeing a woman elected, but talent and vision rather than gender should be the main reasons for electing someone.

  6. Organizational skills are lacking? He put together a kick ass campaign team Kelly, not sure what you are talking about. I find it fascinating that Republicans run from his “pull yourself up by your bootstraps and make your own way” life story of President Obama. Let me tell you, community organizing requires organizational skills, it requires dedication for no money, it requires empowering people to change their own life circumstances. Aren’t all those republican values? WTF. I don’t get it. Obama was elected because people were tired of witnessing the very few with institutional power screw the rest of us. From the very super wealthy in public office to the Wall Street Bankers. THAT is why Obama was elected and in many ways, if the TEA party wasn’t so terrified of the black guy in office, they would see more commonality than differences.

  7. Jeb Bush is correct, almost 40% of people who here without legal status over stayed their visas. But I guess since those people don’t have Latino names nobody cares? Not sure. You can put grenades on the southern border but that won’t solve our immigration issue.

  8. There is one word why Jeb Bush will not be president: BUSH.
    No more.

    @Elena
    Pull yourself up by your bootstraps story of Obama?

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

  9. Then there is the math. You can’t piss off over half the population and then expect to win in national elections.

    The neat thing about Obama is that the people who liked him in the beginning still like him.

    I am not going to argue for him or Hillary because its all a matter of perspective. I do have to throw in that Hillary was one tough cookie and brought all sorts of people back in line. I don’t really know what was expected. We will never agree on Benghazi. Short of the Camp David Peace Accords, I really don’t know what your expectations were.

    I am sort of going to agree with Cargo. I think the fact Jeb is a Bush is his worst problem. this isn’t dynasty. I would also say that if I had to have a Republican president, I would be least uncomfortable with Jeb compared to other KNOWN R’s.

    Actually, that isn’t true. I would love to see Tom Ridge run for president.

  10. Starry flights

    I agree with Jeb Bush on immigration. As to whether he will be president, the Bush name is synonymous with victory. Theirs is the only name that has managed to win at the presidential level.

    Oh, one more thing – Mr Bush will be the beneficiary of the recent McUtcheon and Citizen Untied Supreme Court decisions. Sheldon Adelson has made it clear that Bush is his man. So those of you who thought those decisions were good (cargo), now you are about to find out how good those decisions were, haha

  11. Rick Bentley

    “it seems clear that people like Romney, Rand Paul, and maybe Jeb Bush are capable of getting things done”

    Seriously?

    Romney does not have a lot of accomplishments to his name. Certainly there’s a big difference between heading an Olympics committee and running foreign policy.

    Rand Paul and Jeb Bush’s accomplishments come down to the same as Obama’s in 2008. making a subset of people like them. Paul’s biggest accomplishment may be helping to facilitate that asinine shutdown, which has been counterproductive to his supposed cause.

  12. Rick Bentley

    If I HAD to pick a Republican, I’d pick Ryan. Because I think he does have some semblance of intelligence, and knowledge.

  13. punchak

    I think that Jeb Bush really WANTS to be president. So far, I haven’t
    seen any signs of hunger for the job from him. Why would he want the job?

  14. punchak

    Ooops / I DON’T think ….

    1. I agree. I haven’t seen the hunger either. His mother sure doesn’t want him to be president either.

  15. Rick Bentley

    Apparently he wants the job because he feels love for illegal immigrants? Or for cheap labor and wage devaluation.

  16. Rick Bentley

    Jeb Bush makes me sick. His take on our government’s failure to enforce laws is to exhort us to eat it and smile; the lawbreaking is done out of “love”. A similar argument can be made for any form of theft.

    In fact, any form of theft that makes the rich richer is institutionalized and glorified in modern America. Let’s not pretend that this is leadership. It’s the absense of.

    Let’s also not pretend that to Bush, Reid, Pelosi, Obama, Ryan, Rubio, and Boehner that this issue is about humanitarian concern or Christian charity or economic growth. It’s about one party trying to gain advantage over the other, at the expense of our citizens. The American people’s will and welfare is effectively checkmated on this issue and we sit and watch the two parties jerk us around.

    1. I actually think George and Jeb have a great deal of compassion for immigrants.

      Say what you want about George Bush (and I have said a lot of negative), I have never doubted his sincerity. He just surrounded himself with people I thought were really evil. He didn’t see it.

  17. “….. really WANTS to be president.”

    That right there should disqualify anyone….

  18. Rick Bentley

    This does remain an issue which the GOP can exploit. Notice that some right-wingers in France just gained power on anti-immigrant sentiment.

    The GOP has already made themselves the white male party, through a series of decisions and movements. At this point they may as well double down and go hard on this issue. It seems to me that the leadership has been playing games with the Tea Party people, playacting silly schemes about defunding Obamacare, while rolling them on this issue. It seems very possible to me that the GOP will swing rightward on tghe immigration issue. depending on polling and whether enough American people actually give a damn about the real correlation between wage disparity in America and illegal immigration.

  19. Starry flights

    If the repugs are serious about winning the White Hose, they should look to someone with experience in winning. They could learn something about winning from the Bush family.

  20. Rick Bentley

    Jeb just made a move that precludes winning the nomination though. He’s now a lightning rod for angry FOX News viewers.

    Romney and many other elitist Republican politicians have similar views. Expressing them is incompatible with winning the GOP nomination, post Tea Party.

    1. They might get it all out of their system now. I feel confident Jeb made a conscious decision to spring that one on everyone.

  21. Wolverine

    Maybe the Bush family could change their surname to Bourbon. The Clintons can go with Plantagenet.

  22. Wolverine

    Hmmm. $6 billion in contractor payments unaccounted for in the financial records during Hillary Clinton’s tenure at State. And, during all those years, it seems that no one bothered to see to an appointment of a new State Department Inspector General. Tsk, tsk.

    1. Wolverine, I don’t think they could get one through the senate. Also, does that match the billions lost in Iraq?

      The difference is, I don’t blame Bush for that. I know he wasn’t keeping the books. Hillary didn’t keep the books either.

  23. blue

    The Bushes are too liberal. They talk the talk but cannot walk the walk. Jeb could never clean up this mess. Hillary wants it so bad that it hurts and that is just as dangerous given her lack of ethics or standards. I like Christie, but only because he will Thatcher the libs, problem is I don’t think he is committed enough to undoing the current mess.

    Maybe it dosn’t matter… the Democrats are not likley to come out of the garage or their carbon monoxide high.

    1. 🙄

      Christie isn’t really a conservative either on some things.

  24. Starryflights

    Maybe not, but Christie wins elections.

  25. Wolverine

    The captain of the ship is responsible for the entire ship and the performance of everyone who sails on it. Ambassador L. Paul Bremer served as head of the CPA in 2003 and was, in effect, the American “head of state” for an Iraq which was a collapsed society with extremist elements involved in urban guerilla warfare against US forces. He lived and worked in the Green Zone and reportedly had a price on his head.

    During that year, somewhere betweeen $8 billion and $9 billion in contractor payments went missing from the books because of a lack of focus on best accounting practices. Ambassador Bremer was held to account in Washington for that bookkeeping failure, even though his job was exceedingly difficult and hazardous, as well as the first of its kind for us since MacArthur in Japan in 1945.

    Hillary Clinton’s home office was not in the Green Zone of Iraq but in the plush suite on the 7th Floor in Foggy Bottom. She was the captain of that ship. She had a much bigger staff and no incoming mortar rounds. She has to be held accountable for the failures in the ranks.

    1. That system of accountability is very flawed. In fact, it keeps those who are irresponsible off the hook.

  26. Pat.Herve

    We are not going to get Immigration reform – as much as everyone – POTUS, D’s, R’s say they want to do Immigration Reform, they do not want to do it. At the expense of every American. Bu that is what ‘we’ want – short sighted decisions without long term planning – which is what has gotten us to where we are today. We outsourced our good middle class jobs (accounting, manufacturing, IT, call center, etc) to other countries to shave pennies off of costs to increase corporate earnings and C-Suite pay and now we wonder where the good jobs have gone. We have allowed immigrant labor to do the jobs we do not want and have allowed those industries to collapse to a point where we do not have the American skilled laborer to do them (carpentry, brick mason, etc)

  27. Lyssa

    I think Jeb nailed it “Campaigns ought to be about listening and learning and getting better.” This constant belittling is a manifestation of weakness.

  28. Lyssa

    Vance McAllister Rep from somewhere, a self proclaimed good Christian man who defended the Duck people as morally right, was caught making out with a 22 year old female staffer. She got canned.

    Lots of issues there but R’s need to lay off attempting to corner morality and Christianity. It’s certainly not helping win elections.

    1. People like me always smile when people like McAllister get caught with their proverbial pants down because they are such Dudley-Do-Rights and attempt to legislate morality to everyone else. Funny that the female staffer got canned. Typical. Must be the Jezebel syndrome. What will happen to McAllister? Probably nothing.

      Every Republican I know was salivating over Clinton getting caught with zipper problems. The Larry Flynt made his great offer of a million dollars to blow the whistle on those in Congress with zipper problems. Ha. Talk about rats off a sinking ship. I actually had a chance at that cool million. I just couldn’t do it. bummer!

  29. Rick Bentley

    “Christie wins elections.”

    Not any more! Those days are done.

  30. Rick Bentley

    What Pat says is true. It’s the mark of a decadent society – we stop doing our own work and aspire to oversee some lower class (in Rome it was enslaved people and countries) to do it. We’re content to stop building things. We live to stuff cheese fries into our face and get tingly sensations in our genitals from watching underage nymphs tweak on television.

    Luckily we DO build software well. If we couldn’t do that better than other countries – and make no mistake, we can and do – we’d be less preeminant.

  31. Rick Bentley

    sorry I meany twerk on television.

  32. Rick Bentley

    Too decadent to do our own labor; too decadent to care whether the stock market is rigged against us; too decadent to care whether our banks are “too big to fail” and engaged in schemes that cost us billions in debt periodically; too decadent to work together on problems like wage disparity and health care. And many of us are increasingly out of touch with reality (cue the FOX News bumper sounds) and content to live in fantasy.

    Thank god for nerds like me who create software. We’re building a whole new internet-driven world that everybody wants in on. And despite industry’s best efforts, high-tech code is not outsourced (I can do a job much better for you that some man or woman in India can – and the Chinese are hamstrung by their inefficient written language).. We excel in weapons creation, internet development, and entertainment. Everything else we’re content to import.

    1. The Chinese are importing English teachers like crazy, if even for the summer.

      Rick, I don’t think you are a nerd.

  33. Pat.Herve

    Rick Bentley :
    Luckily we DO build software well. If we couldn’t do that better than other countries – and make no mistake, we can and do – we’d be less preeminant.

    Umm, Kinda. We outsource much of the mundane tasks to other countries (India, China, Prague, etc) – and we import a good amount of talent, but not as much as large employers want. We are also losing out because of our Immigration process and companies have started setting up shop in Vancouver. Just like moving the manufacturing jobs out – we are moving our IT jobs out.

  34. Rick Bentley

    I’ve lived through a couple of decades as a software engineer … 10-15 years ago it was in vogue to think that most of our software development could be moved to India or China. But it didn’t work so well. The films that do it usually end up with worse software, because the engineers are less able to understand what is wanted, or to build something that’s maximally useful.

    I’ve seen these efforts fail. Seen millions spent on big balls of s***. I know there’s continuing interest in outsourcing these jobs too, but I don’t think that’s going to be the way forward.

  35. Rick Bentley

    I am a nerd, Moon … I’m proud of it. For decades I resisted it … studied art and film, liked to talk at parties about high-brow topics, and so forth. But as I get older and boil down to what I really am, I’m reclaiming my nerd-dom.

    I don’t much like people, don’t look them in the eye, and would be happy living in a well-supplied cave if I had occasional female company. Who I would have trouble maintaining eye contact with.

    I read comic books as often as literature … I think that Ed Brubaker and Brian Michael Bendis are the master storytellers of our time.

    I think that Philip K Dick is the only author worth reading … though on deep inspection, his world is largely the elaborate creation of a social misfit with an analytic bent and deep anti-social tendencies.

    I take deep pleasure in my ability to create computer software, and harbor resentment at the whole class of nimrods in our society who “manage” the creation of this software rather than actually doing it. I resent irrationality.

    Despite my interest in sports and occasional ability to be boisterous, I am and always will be … a nerd. A “Daily Show” nerd (which is a variation on “South Park conservative”), bemused by the machinations of the society around him.

  36. Scout

    In many ways, Jeb Bush and Romney are quite similar: they are intelligent, capable proven quantities, each of whom is well-qualified to be President. The tragedy of Romney was that he didn’t run as himself – he made a decision, perhaps motivated by disappointing results in his nomination efforts in 2008, that he had to play the part of someone he definitely was not. Jeb Bush seems to be saying that, whatever his problems in getting the nomination of the Republican Party as currently configured, he will just be himself and he is not going to “Dumb-down” or “mean-up” just to appease the base elements of the Party. This may be high principle, and it may be an observation that Romney, once he put on his two-digit IQ imitation for the primary battles, had real trouble getting back to projecting an image of general competence and good intentions for the general electorate. It could be a little of each.

    What is different now is that there does seem to be a re-assertion of concern from elements of the Republican Party (I thought they had all disappeared, but they must have been just hibernating) that it is important to offer competent governance as an element of politics and that candidates have to be way above just convenient fuel sources for cable television entertainment shows.

    Bush’s comment on immigration was extraordinarily courageous. People illegally immigrate (whether across our southern border or across the Iron Curtain or in any other context) out of utter desperation. If my children or Rick’s children were starving and there were jobs in Honduras or Guatemala, I like to think that he and I would be man enough to crawl on our bellies through the desert to find a way to sustain our families. I would not be having a “law-n-order” discussion before crossing the line. Often when folks up here get up on their high horses about “criminals” they are designating folks “criminal” only because they didn’t go through the bureaucracy of our completely inadequate border and immigration control system. I would think these people more “criminal” if they just sat in the mud and let their families starve. The problem is to build and maintain a border/immigration system that makes the gates friendly and efficient enough that the fences aren’t tested.

    This could be a very interesting election.

  37. middleman

    Scout, I think your analysis is very good. Bush’s stand is only courageous because the fringe has controlled the argument on immigration in the GOP with their fear and loathing of the “other,” whether it be poor people, black people, brown people, gay people, whatever.

    The question is, what’s his angle? How does he plan to get through the primary process? He must see a way forward or he wouldn’t have put this out there. There’s no question he’s running- he’s met with Adelson, the Koch’s, he’s started his committee, he’s getting his brand out there. If the GOP was smart, they’d find a way to get this guy through the primaries- he’s the one R with a chance at 2016.

  38. “he’s the one R with a chance at 2016.”

    Not a chance.

    1. If not Jeb, then who? Do you seriously think 1. a tea party candidate could win the primary 2. A tea party candidate could win the general?

  39. middleman

    I meant in the general election, Cargo- I agree he has a slim chance in the tea party primary.

  40. Rick Bentley

    Thinking it through, I think that Ted Cruz has a chance to win the nod, and lose in the general election.

    1. There aren’t that many stupid republicans.

  41. Rick Bentley

    There were in 2012! And 2008.

  42. @Moon-howler
    I don’t know.
    It would depend upon the candidates.

    @middleman
    Jeb wouldn’t win in the general. That is what I meant. He has too much baggage as a Bush for conservatives to vote for him. If the Democrats were honest and sensible, they would tell Hillary not to run.

    @Rick Bentley
    Possibly. Of course, we have enough stupid people in this country to defeat him…..look at who the voters re-elected. The worst president since Carter.

    I don’t think that Republicans can win on ideas anymore. Too many low info voters that want gov’t programs. To much desire for a nanny state that protects them.

    I truly feel that we are in decline and have become decadent.

    1. You do understand though that Obama supporters don’t think Obama is a bad president? I know many people who would say that W was the worst president in their lifetime and that includes Nixon.

      Who do you think is the best?
      You show me yours and I will show you mine.

  43. Rick Bentley

    “Too many low info voters that want gov’t programs.”

    Conversely, the Republicans won the White House in 2000 and 2004 because of too many willfully ignorant Americans who wanted to believe that we could run a government without paying taxes into it, could or should fight wars to satisfy our issues with id and self-image, and should trust Wall Street to manage our money without meaningful oversight. That willful immaturity and irresponsibility got us to where we are today.

  44. Rick Bentley

    “I truly feel that we are in decline and have become decadent.”

    Many of us are – I see it more in the willful ignorance of FOX News Repuiblicans than I do in democratic efforts to life working poor out of poverty.

    But decadence is the way of the world. As life becomes easier (and make no mistake – it has in most regards, except for the ability most of us have in this well-oiled world to justify our importance to the world and to get someone to pay us well for 40 hours’ work a week), people become softer and less capable. We’re still leading the world in technical innovation though, and still the culture everyone wants to imitate.

  45. Rick Bentley

    My best is Teddy Roosevelt. He started the transformation towards promoting equality and minimum standards of living.

    The worst, to me, in my lifetime was Jimmy Carter. If you listen to him for any length of time it is obvious that he is a naive and incapable man.

  46. Rick Bentley

    While I’m bad-mouthing Presidents, it should also be noted that Nixon somewhere in his once-secret tapes, speaks about how Ford shouldn’t be named Vice-President because he’s not mentally up to the job. I don’t know if that ever got published but I heard it with my own ears. Presumably Nixon replaced Agnew with Ford as he thought it less likely he’d actually get impeached.

  47. Rick Bentley

    (I once went to the National Archives and listened to some Watergate tapes, comparing them with the published version that Nixon had transcribed himself. I found that most of the sections claimed inaudible were Nixon and Haldeman sitting around negatively characterizing other people. Nixon didn’t attempt to remove incriminating language or make himself look better. he consistently claimed as inaudible the parts where he had claimed some other political figure to be stupid, incapable, etc.).

  48. Rick Bentley

    (It’s funny how principled he was in his way. The published stuff I believe contained swearing and racist remarks, and highly incriminating stuff, but would cut away from remarks that would embarrass other politicians).

  49. @Moon-howler
    Sure….. I understand that. That’s the point.

    So….best and worst in my lifetime…… Reagan was best in my lifetime. Obama the worst, just beating out Carter.

    Best of all time…. Washington it best. Anyone that rejects kingship and voluntarily leaves power without having to……best.

  50. Rick Bentley

    Reagan was a very effective proponent for his viewpoints. He was great at setting the dialogue. A lot could be learned from him.

    But what I did not like about him is that he was a divider rather than a uniter. He was frequently dissing 40% of America to keep the 60% on his side. My most vivid memory of this is when he actually took the time as President to inform us that people who believed in God loved their country more than those who didn’t. Pretty dickish move if you ask me. The divisions that Reagan promulgated, the image of welfare abusers living high on the hog and being the reason the rest of us pay taxes, has continued and widened.

    1. You are absolutely correct. Them against us. No one could make a speech like Reagan except maybe Bill Clinton. Maybe. But so much of what he said was really bullshyst.

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