Several weeks ago Rick Bentley sounded the alarm over Ebola right here on this blog. I think it’s fair to say most of us thought he was being somewhat of an alarmist. Is he? How do pandemics start? How many rats did it take to host a flea carrying the Black Death back a few centuries ago? The Plague spread like wildfire.
We are told that US hospitals are equipped to handle Ebola. It sure doesn’t sound like it. Thomas Duncan, the Liberian with Ebola in Dallas, was initially sent home from the hospital. Mr. Duncan died yesterday. How many people have really been exposed? How contagious is Ebola, really. Do we really know? Are our hospitals capable of dealing with this dread disease that has ravaged west Africa?
I feel like we are being mollified every time I hear an official on TV talk about Ebola which is 24/7. In fact, all the visuals contradict what we are being told. When you see workers wearing hazmat suits that look like the wearer could enter a nuclear waste facility, that doesn’t exactly give one the feeling of peace and tranquility.
Should Americans start doing anything to prepare for an epidemic? What can they do? What is precaution without looking like you are a nut case? I don’t know. What do you all think? Where is Rick when we need him?
What we do now (and are doing) is cutting more funding to NIH, CDC, etc.
Now, the same crowd that scream that the TSA should not be checking for guns ‘n bombs and refuse to give CBP ID – want the same TSA and CBP to take people’s temperatures. Other countries monitor people that come in to their country and will refuse you entry if you show signs of illness but not here. Just wait until the first American is stopped and observed because he/she has a temperature – it will be on youtube – and fox will say ‘can you believe they are stopping this person’.
Some of this Ebola scare is true – but most of it is fear mongering. It is unlikely that we will have a break out like they have in Liberia. The burial practice over there actually greatly contributes to the spread of the disease. I am more worried about air borne disease and the anti-vacinne crowd.
The Foxies are really politicizing Ebola. Its all this Administrations fault over here. I couldn’t believe it.
The danger from a disease comes when we know nothing about it or have misconceptions about how it spreads. Ebola has been around for decades and there is no evidence this strain is different from our earlier outbreaks. This story fits the immigrants-are-destroying-America meme so I expect it to get lots of press coverage between now and Nov 4 because fear is a powerful political tool.
@Pat.Herve
Rather than rely on the CDC and TSA, it would seem wiser to temporarily end flights between the US and West African countries until the outbreak is contained. My understanding is that if somebody with Ebola sneezes all over his and adjacent tray tables on a flight and then others touch it, then the virus can be transmitted. The virus from the sneeze can also survive for quite some time. This means that someone on the same airplane but a later flight could also be infected.
So the potential for an outbreak due to air travel is there. Waiting until the flight gets to the US to test for the virus would seem to be too late. Plus no one has called for thoroughly cleaning the aircraft if someone with elevated temperature is identified by TSA.
How do we control who gets on the planes from another country? How do we control who flies from west African countries to Belgium and then to the United states? American citizens have right of return. What will we do about them? How will we send medical supplies and materials to these nations and then get the people back who took it?
No answers here, just questions.
I expect the outbreak to actually happen in Mexico or Central America…..with a subsequent influx of refugees.
I also expect within a year, the terrorists to utilize this in a suicide bomb type scenario. I can think of a dozen scenarios involving people flying in, or coming across the southern border….after infecting a few dozen illegal immigrants. Or hundreds. Or just one person making it here while infected, and then allow himself to be used as the source by more terrorists. A little water and spray bottles….. plus the newly infected……
And I don’t see this government as able to prevent any of this.
Interesting that you picked the southern border. Does that mean you feel this same scenario couldn’t happen along our border with Canada? Why couldn’t it happened with Canadians or those coming in through Canada? Do we have some sort of anti-Ebola magic sprinkled along that border that couldn’t possibly be present on the southern border?
Seriously sick people (vomiting, diarrhea) can’t travel. They make poor refugees…they die before they get to the border. And if they aren’t sick, they aren’t contagious. The disease progresses too rapid to be a wildfire epidemic. You need something that is infectious while the host has no symptoms to be able to turn this into a terrorist weapon.
The ability to transmit the disease to another is strongest after the person has died. As long as we don’t leave dead bodies lying in the street to fester we eliminate the typical transmission vector for Ebola.
@Moon-howler
I picked the southern border for a number of reasons.
Its easier to get into Central America.
The population density is greater.
There is a greater chance of refugees. The massive influx of illegal immigrants and our lax enforcement provides a means to spread the disease. We don’t have a massive invasion of illegal immigrants from Canada.
Unless any terrorists are very pale skinned, they are able to “hide” within the population if they speak spanish.
@Ed Myers
The incubation period is up to 21 days. The refugees will be fleeing existing people. Some will be infected.
The most infectious time varies. It is not when they are dead. They are not mobile, throwing up, etc in various places. An infectious body is isolated and can be avoided. An infected person can be contagious and travel by aircraft to numerous places.
The northern border is much easier to get across. Less scrutiny. Of course coming in by boat is the easiest of all.
You could have a local “American” go to Canada, pick up a sick person, and then dump them off.
It is very easy to get into Canada. their immigration rules are a piece of cake compared to ours.
@Moon-howler
The northern border is easier.
Less people, however, to use as a transmission vector. I’m looking at mass transmission to illegal immigrants. Of course any bad guys will use multiple entries. IF this happens, they would probable use more than one entry point depending upon that mission.
This is an ideal vector for mass death and chaos. All it takes is for the killlers to not care about dying.
Oh…look! There’s a bunch…..
Look how that Entero virus has spread. The CDC refuses to state where it started or how it spread so quickly to different states.
One reporter discovered that this disease is well known in Honduras… affecting children.
Hmmm…what just happened this summer? What did the gov’t do with all those children from Central America? Without screening them? Oh yes….spread them around the nation…..
@Moon-howler
Suspending commercial flights is not a perfect solution, but it is better than that being done now. Medical personnel and American citizens could be transported by military aircraft rather than commercial flights. This would provide an opportunity to examine/quarantine sick people in a more controlled environment.
The CDC today indicated that this Ebola outbreak is different and presumably more infectious than we have seen in the last 30 years.
Not telling you that you are wrong. I don’t know what I think on this one.
Let’s say I live in Liberia, and I think I’ve been exposed to Ebola, and I start worrying. Staying in Liberia is likely a death sentence. So I stock up on antipyretics (fever reducers like Tylenol) and load up before I get to the temp checkpoint. System defeated.
This is smoke and mirrors, more bread and circuses to help us feel better despite the daily contradictions. People are understandably upset and distrustful, especially when they read the alarmism the World Health Organization is now putting out http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/how-ebola-spreads/ and what seems to be an almost concerted attempt by others to ridicule and shout down their concerns because that faction, if they even suspect it, will brook no criticism of this President or his policies. They don’t understand why healthcare workers have to use respiratory protection when their government tells them that Ebola is not transmitted by airborne particles. Ebola looks like a perfect bioweapon, too, because there is no proven cure just yet, and it has potential to cause mass hysteria.
People notice the inconsistencies and they rightfully question them, as well they should.
@Kelly_3406
Kelly – it is unworkable. Many of the flights out of those countries are not direct flights here. So, how does one know where any passenger has been. Shutdown the flights, and people will find a way into another country and fly here anyway – and no way of knowing that they were previously exposed.
Liberia – population ~4 million – reported cases – ~4,000. Deaths ~ 2,200
An air-borne pathogen will be much worse – SARS comes to mind. Although I cannot explain why SARS has not really reached the US yet as I had predicted a few years ago.
One thing we should not be doing at a time like this is to cut funding for CDC, NIH and other health agencies.
The deputy has tested negative for Ebola. Sure will make him and his family feel better.
I was hoping Emma would reassure me. She didn’t.
This is not a good time to read Stephen King’s The Stand.
I think the following lyrics by “The Suicide Machines” pretty well sums it up- particularly the refrain:
That’s great, it starts
With an earthquake
Birds and snakes, an aeroplane
Lenny Bruce is not afraid, let’s go
Eye of a hurricane
Listen to yourself churn
World serves it’s own needs
Dummy serve your own needs
Feed it off an aux speak
Grunt, no, strength
Ladder start to clatter
With fear fight down height
Wire in a fire, representing seven games
A government for hire and a combat site
Left of west and coming in a hurry
With the furies breathing down your neck
Team by team reporters baffled
Trumped, tethered cropped
Look at that low playing, fine, then
Uh oh, overflow, population, common food
But it’ll do save yourself, serve yourself
World serves it’s own needs
Listen to your heart bleed
Dummy with the rapture
And the revered and the right, right
You vitriolic, patriotic, slam
Fight, bright light feeling pretty psyched
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
And I feel fine
Six o’clock, TV hour
Don’t get caught in foreign towers
Slash and burn, return
Listen to yourself churn
Locking in, uniforming
Book burning, blood letting
Every motive escalate
Automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a votive
Step down, step down
Watch your heel
Crush, crushed
Uh-oh, this means no fear cavalier
Renegade steer clear
A tournament, tournament
A tournament of lies
Offer me solutions
Offer me alternatives
And I decline
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
And I feel fine, and I feel fine, and I feel fine
The other night
I dreamt of knives
Continental drift divide
Mountains sit in a line
Leonard Bernstein
Leonid Brezhnev
Lenny Bruce and Lester
Bangs Birthday party
Cheesecake, jelly bean, boom
You symbiotic, patriotic
Alarm book neck, right? Right
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
And I feel fine
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
And I feel fine
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
It’s the end of the world as we know it
(It’s time I had some time alone)
And I feel fine, I feel fine
Read more at http://www.songlyrics.com/the-suicide-machines/it-s-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-i-feel-fine-lyrics/#u7k4JktCjXhqoSVU.99
Interesting chart from Friday WaPo:
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/containing-ebola-what-it-would-take/1366/
You have to understand exponential increases to see what is happening.
Further discussion here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-ominous-math-of-the-ebola-epidemic/2014/10/09/3cad9e76-4fb2-11e4-8c24-487e92bc997b_story.html
This probably does have the potential to be a pandemic particularly since treatment possibilities are VERY limited and the two manufacturers of POTENTIAL anti-viral drugs are simply not able to ramp up production even though FDA has said they would allow use of drugs that have not completed all trials.
It gives me a fairly uneasy feeling.
If only half the people die, then every month adds hundreds to the pool of people who have anti-bodies against the disease and can be placed in service to care for the sick with less training or concerns for equipment needs to prevent transmission. If the fatality rate (currently .5) is less than the inverse of the number of new infections per existing one ( around 2 ) then a local community will have enough people to care for the sick until the disease dies out naturally although a 50% mortality would be devastating even if limited to small pockets of the population. The numbers could be dramatically improved by increasing survival rate by a small amount through better health care and decreasing infection rates by better practices.
Bottom line is this disease doesn’t have the right numbers for a wildfire. The concern with letting it die out on its own is that the disease will mutate in humans and potentially become more lethal.